Ted Kennedy (D) vs. Ronald Reagan (R), 1976

[© tweed]

Teddy does what everyone expected him to do and forms a campaign in 1976.  he runs through the Democratic field with large margins of victory in most primary contests, uniting the old- and new-left factions that had split in 1972.

meanwhile, the conservative cult hero and former Cali Governor Ronald Reagan becomes embattled with incumbent president Gerald Ford in a bloody primary season.  Reagan wins a plurality of delegates in the primaries, but not enough to secure a first-ballot majority going into the convention.  Ford's calls for an 'open convention' are denied.  in the end, Reagan prevails on the first ballot with a razor-thin delegate margin of 48.

so that all sets up Ted Kennedy in good position in 1976.  agreed?

[Lincoln Republican]

This would have been an interesting scenario and match up.

Don't forget that after a heated and closely fought nomination battle, that parties tend to unite behind their nominee, and I do not doubt that the Republican Party would have united behind Reagan after this closely contested nomination in 1976.  Reagan picks moderate Senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania, as he did in real life, for Vice President, as a reconciliation with the more moderate and the Ford wing of the party.

Reagan was charismatic and likeable, whereas Kennedy was not nearly the campaigner that Reagan was.

For Vice President, Kennedy may have considered going with Senator Adlai Stevenson III of Illinois.  Whether Stevenson or someone else, I believe Kennedy would have gone with a midwestern running mate, as this region would have been crucial to any hope  Kennedy had for a victory. 

I cannot see northeast liberal Kennedy playing well in the south or most of the west against Reagan.  Kennedy would have had to depend on the northeast and the midwest for a victory, if he could have achieved a victory over Reagan at all.

The best hope for Kennedy, after all is said and done, is that the nation would not have been ready for Reagan's brand of conservatism in 1976.   

[WalterMitty]

reagan/schweiker: 410
kennedy/stevenson: 128

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Kennedy/Carter: 50% PV, 276 EV
Reagan/Weicker: 49% PV, 262 EV

[CPT MikeyMike]

Reagan/Schweiker: 377
Kennedy/Stevenson: 161

[CPT MikeyMike]

Kennedy/Carter: 50% PV, 276 EV
Reagan/Weicker: 49% PV, 262 EV

No logic AGAIN!

How does a Democrat win the New England states of VT, NH and ME? If JFK or Dukakis couldn't then Teddy couldn't. They were solid Republican until 1992.

Why would Reagan pick Weicker? Reagan correctly labeled Weicker as a "a no-good pompous fat head." Besides Reagan had already announced Schweiker would be his running mate prior to the convention.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Kennedy/Carter: 50% PV, 276 EV
Reagan/Weicker: 49% PV, 262 EV

No logic AGAIN!

How does a Democrat win the New England states of VT, NH and ME? If JFK or Dukakis couldn't then Teddy couldn't. They were solid Republican until 1992.

Why would Reagan pick Weicker? Reagan correctly labeled Weicker as a "a no-good pompous fat head." Besides Reagan had already announced Schweiker would be his running mate prior to the convention.

On your first point, I reason that by 1976, the GOP hold on those states was not resolute, and that the liberal Kennedy would be able to capture those states.  On your point about Weicker, Reagan decides that Weicker would do better hitting Kennedy's New England base than Schweiker would.

[CPT MikeyMike]

[On your first point, I reason that by 1976, the GOP hold on those states was not resolute, and that the liberal Kennedy would be able to capture those states. 

Still poor reasoning. Still strong Republican states through 1988. Again JFK lost all three, Carter lost all three, Mondale lost all three and Dukakis lost all three. Teddy would have lost all three easily.

On your point about Weicker, Reagan decides that Weicker would do better hitting Kennedy's New England base than Schweiker would.

LOL...terrible selection. Weicker was a RINO X 1000. There were a lot of better Republicans in New England than Weicker such as Eliot Richardson. Plus Schweiker would have been key in Pennsylvania.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

When JFK lost them, they were still solid, I will give you that.  In 1976, Carter was a conservative Southerner running against a Northeastern liberal, 1980, 1984, and 1988 were landslides, so I find it difficult to call them "solid" by that point.

[CPT MikeyMike]

When JFK lost them, they were still solid, I will give you that.  In 1976, Carter was a conservative Southerner running against a Northeastern liberal, 1980, 1984, and 1988 were landslides, so I find it difficult to call them "solid" by that point.

It was solid until the Religous Right came into the picture - late 80s and early '90s.

[Joe Republic]

In 1976, Carter was a conservative Southerner running against a Northeastern liberal,

What?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In 1976, Carter was a conservative Southerner running against a Northeastern liberal,

What?

Gerald Ford

[Joe Republic]

In 1976, Carter was a conservative Southerner running against a Northeastern liberal,

What?

Gerald Ford

Again; what?  Ford wasn't even from the Northeast, let alone a liberal.  And while Carter may have been a Southerner, he certainly wasn't conservative.

You scored 25%.  Please try harder.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In 1976, Carter was a conservative Southerner running against a Northeastern liberal,

What?

Gerald Ford

Again; what?  Ford wasn't even from the Northeast, let alone a liberal.  And while Carter may have been a Southerner, he certainly wasn't conservative.

You scored 25%.  Please try harder.

Alright, Ford was not from the "Northeast" as in New England, but he was a Northerner, certainly, and he without a doubt more liberal than Jimmy Carter, especially on social issues.

[Boris]

I'm not seeing a Kennedy victory. But then again, it's hard to imagine the Democrats losing an election two years after Watergate against a weakened GOP. But then again, Ford probably would have won had the election been held a week later. But yeah, unless Kennedy painted Reagan as an extremist and owned him in the debates, it's difficult to envision him winning. And the Republicans would nail him with Chappaquiddick.

This is the best case scenario I'm seeing for Teddy:

Reagan wins 273-265. And even Missouri and Ohio are a bit of a stretch.

[Lincoln Republican]

I see Ted Kennedy as a weak nominee against Reagan in 1976.  Kennedy makes no headway in the south or the west.  Carter started off the election with a solid base of support in the south, which Kennedy would not have.

Reagan would not be defending himself as the one who pardoned Nixon.

Reagan completely out campaigns Kennedy, and far out scores him in the debates. 

Reagan/Schweiker                      371
Kennedy/Stevenson                   167