We haven't been posting every national poll here for the last few months, as the state-by-state polls are more important, but I think we should start paying more attention to the national polls now, as it gives us a rough idea of where things stand for Feb. 5th (since most of those Feb. 5th states haven't been polled for weeks, if not months), and who needs to make up ground in the next three weeks in order to be competitive, as well as the extent to which IA and NH have already shaken things up. Here are the latest national poll results from ABC/WaPo:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_011408.html?hpid=topnewsClinton 42
Obama 37
Edwards 11
McCain 28
Huckabee 20
Romney 19
Giuliani 15
Thompson 8
Paul 3
And here's the latest from the CBS/NYT poll:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/13/opinion/polls/main3706599.shtmlClinton 42
Obama 27
Edwards 11
McCain 33
Huckabee 18
Giuliani 10
Romney 8
Thompson 8
Paul 5
So we now have post-NH primary national polls from four pollsters (the other two being CNN & Rasmussen). If we average those four polls together, we get (rounding to the nearest 1%):
Clinton 43%
Obama 34%
Edwards 12%
McCain 30%
Huckabee 20%
Romney 14%
Giuliani 13%
Thompson 9%
Paul 4%
Obviously, there's ample opportunity for the other candidates to catch up in the coming round of primaries, but if those national numbers are accurate, I have little doubt that, if all the Feb. 5th primaries were held today, Clinton & McCain would be the unambiguous winners. Remember, a 10 point national lead is about where Giuliani was back in November, when he was leading virtually everywhere, aside from IA, NH, and the South. This is why I still think we'll likely get clear winners out of Feb. 5th, as the chances are good that *somebody* from each party will have a lead like that, though of course it might not be Clinton & McCain.
