1976: Vice President Spiro Agnew (R) vs. Senator Scoop Jackson (D)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

The Scenario involves, firstly No Watergate Scandal and no Tax Evasion charges laid against Vice President Spiro T. Agnew.

How would the 1976 Presidential Election turn out if these were the tickets?

Republican

President: Vice President Spiro T. Agnew of Maryland
Vice President: Former Congressman George H. W. Bush of Texas

Democratic

President: Senator Henry 'Scoop' Jackson of Washington
Vice President: Former Governor Jimmy Carter of Georgia

How would this election turn out? Discuss with maps.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In this scenario, I think Agnew would lose, since he was not terribly popular to begin with, and the country would be looking for a change after eight years of Nixon.  Carter helps in the South more than Bush does, so Jackson wins narrowly.

Jackson/Carter: 50% PV, 284 EV
Agnew/Bush: 48% PV, 254 EV

[True Democrat]

Nixon was never terribly popular either, and with 8 years of Republican rule, I think the country would be ready for a change.  Jackson also would have been very acceptable to Nixon.

321-217

[bullmoose88]

Doubtful the Democrats win the left coast in 1976, Republican fatigue or not

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Doubtful the Democrats win the left coast in 1976, Republican fatigue or not

Jackson was from Washington, you have to figure that he would have a good impact on the West Coast.

[bullmoose88]

Doubtful the Democrats win the left coast in 1976, Republican fatigue or not

Jackson was from Washington, you have to figure that he would have a good impact on the West Coast.

And Agnew is from Maryland, yet you have most of those states in that region swinging away from him...which is fine, but I'd suggest that Presidential location is largely not relevant, maybe Scoop wins Washington...but Oregon and California...states that generally voted Republican until the late 1980s or so?

Doubtful.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Doubtful the Democrats win the left coast in 1976, Republican fatigue or not

Jackson was from Washington, you have to figure that he would have a good impact on the West Coast.

And Agnew is from Maryland, yet you have most of those states in that region swinging away from him...which is fine, but I'd suggest that Presidential location is largely not relevant, maybe Scoop wins Washington...but Oregon and California...states that generally voted Republican until the late 1980s or so?

Doubtful.

On the Agnew point, the states around Maryland were much more heavily Democratic than the West Coast, so Agnew would have little or no effect on those states.  Also, California was only Republican because from 1960-1988 a Californian wasn't on the ticket only three times, and two of those times a Californian played a major role in the campaign.

[bullmoose88]

Doubtful the Democrats win the left coast in 1976, Republican fatigue or not

Jackson was from Washington, you have to figure that he would have a good impact on the West Coast.

And Agnew is from Maryland, yet you have most of those states in that region swinging away from him...which is fine, but I'd suggest that Presidential location is largely not relevant, maybe Scoop wins Washington...but Oregon and California...states that generally voted Republican until the late 1980s or so?

Doubtful.

On the Agnew point, the states around Maryland were much more heavily Democratic than the West Coast, so Agnew would have little or no effect on those states.  Also, California was only Republican because from 1960-1988 a Californian wasn't on the ticket only three times, and two of those times a Californian played a major role in the campaign.

I mean, perhaps its just wishful thinking on your part, but you have Virginia, a state that went for Ford and Nixon (all 3 times if I recall) and a state that was much more republican presidentially than it is now going Democrat...

Second, California (and all of the West Coast) also went for Ford in 1976, despite his gaffes, despite Republican corruption in the White House...I just can't see it going democrat in this scenario where it seems corruption wasnt bad enough to force agnews resignation...

[Lincoln Republican]

Jackson, a well respected and experienced Senator, defeats the uninspiring Agnew.

Jackson wins his home state of Washington by a comfortable margin.  Jackson as well wins Oregon and California.  In reality, Ford, a stronger candidate in California and Oregon than Agnew would have been, only won California by 1.78% and Oregon by 0.17%.  In a Jackson/Agnew election, Jackson wins them.

Agnew had become a popular figure among conservatives, and I give him most of the south and west. 

In this 1976 election, even with no Watergate, and with Agnew not facing any charges, after 8 years of Republican administration, Jackson defeats Agnew.  Agnew was considered weak and ineffective by much of the electorate, and did not really help Nixon in 1968.               

Jackson/Carter                 310
Agnew/Bush                     228

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Henry 'Scoop' Jackson/Jimmy Carter (D): 330 Electoral Votes, 52% of the PV
Spiro T. Agnew/George H. W. Bush (R): 208 Electoral Votes, 48% of the PV

I think that in this scenario, Senator Jackson would have won quite comfortably. Thanks to two things.

1) After 8 years of a Republican Administration, led by President Nixon, the American people would have been tired of Republican rule and would want change and Senator Jackson would be the man to bring it.

2) As Tammany Hall Republican saide, Vice President Agnew would be considered weak and ineffective by the American Electorate and didn't add much to the 1968 Republican ticket. It's also likely in this scenario that Nixon would have supported Jackson rather than Agnew.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Doubtful the Democrats win the left coast in 1976, Republican fatigue or not

Jackson was from Washington, you have to figure that he would have a good impact on the West Coast.

And Agnew is from Maryland, yet you have most of those states in that region swinging away from him...which is fine, but I'd suggest that Presidential location is largely not relevant, maybe Scoop wins Washington...but Oregon and California...states that generally voted Republican until the late 1980s or so?

Doubtful.

On the Agnew point, the states around Maryland were much more heavily Democratic than the West Coast, so Agnew would have little or no effect on those states.  Also, California was only Republican because from 1960-1988 a Californian wasn't on the ticket only three times, and two of those times a Californian played a major role in the campaign.

I mean, perhaps its just wishful thinking on your part, but you have Virginia, a state that went for Ford and Nixon (all 3 times if I recall) and a state that was much more republican presidentially than it is now going Democrat...

Second, California (and all of the West Coast) also went for Ford in 1976, despite his gaffes, despite Republican corruption in the White House...I just can't see it going democrat in this scenario where it seems corruption wasnt bad enough to force agnews resignation...

Ford barely won the West Coast in '76, and Agnew is not as good of a candidate as Ford, and Jackson is a better candidate than Carter.

[Lincoln Republican]

Henry 'Scoop' Jackson/Jimmy Carter (D): 330 Electoral Votes, 52% of the PV
Spiro T. Agnew/George H. W. Bush (R): 208 Electoral Votes, 48% of the PV

I think that in this scenario, Senator Jackson would have won quite comfortably. Thanks to two things.

1) After 8 years of a Republican Administration, led by President Nixon, the American people would have been tired of Republican rule and would want change and Senator Jackson would be the man to bring it.

2) As Tammany Hall Republican saide, Vice President Agnew would be considered weak and ineffective by the American Electorate and didn't add much to the 1968 Republican ticket. It's also likely in this scenario that Nixon would have supported Jackson rather than Agnew.

No, under no circumstances would Nixon have supported Jackson. 

It would be ludicrous for a Republican President to support the Democrat over the Republican.

True, Nixon was at the point of wanting to drop Agnew from the ticket in 1972, that never materialized, of course.  Agnew by that time had become somewhat of a hero to conservatives.

However, Nixon would have given Agnew his endorsement, luke warm and not sincere, but, out of necessity, an endorsement, likely believing confidently that Jackson would win, which would have sat well enough with Nixon.