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Author Topic: 2008 Reccession means?  (Read 3626 times)
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
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« on: January 14, 2008, 09:55:48 pm »
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A more Liberitarian society, or a more Populist one?
I would say Populist, as we have had 28 years of Reganomics(even Clinton used them a little), and now we are having major problems and it looks like our government will finally increase programs to counter Reccession.
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Senator-elect Polnut
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« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2008, 07:13:38 am »
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I don't think great societal shifts are necessarily contained in a recession.

People will tighten their belts generally, don't expect great government programs.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2008, 10:36:59 am »
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There is a difference between a recession and something like the Depression.
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2008, 03:54:12 pm »
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Yeah. If it is just another reccesion or slow-down, people will just find a scape goat and move on. ...if the the reccesion is nasty or long, then they may reevaluate the way they do things.
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2009, 12:08:28 am »
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The 2007-2008 downturn started out as like one of the two other nastiest and protracted recessions since 1950, but it got far worse in September 2008:



The duration has yet to match either the Oil Crisis of 1973 (20.7 months) or  the Tech Crash of 2000 (30.5 months), let alone the Great Meltdown of 1929-1933 (34.2 months); it has so far lasted 16 months. But it has gone suddenly in character from the comparatively from the comparatively tame bear markets to the severity of the 1929-1933 bear market at a similar stage. The huge decline in the DJIA in September 2008 reflected the recognition that much of what we Americans thought was wealth was illusion.

It also doomed the McCain/Palin campaign and probably a couple of Republican Senators to defeat.

It's hard to imagine any meltdown in America as severe as the 1929-1933 meltdown unless the United States were defeated in a major war or subjected to a nuclear exchange that destroys 70% of national wealth and a large part of the population. We have institutions to prevent a loss of 90% of the apparent valuation of stocks: bank deposit insurance, Social Security that ensures that the elderly will at least have disposable income,  Medicare that ensures a vibrant economy in medicine if nothing else, a welfare system (flawed as it is), and the recognition of the effectiveness of Keynesian stimulus as a response. Even so one must wonder how much of the wealth that we thought we had was created only on paper or stolen outright. Obama has tried to stop the decline before it reaches the destructive levels that it could. Does anyone expect a loss of nearly 89% of all commercial capital? We have lost about one half. 

We are down at least 53%, which is already more severer than the level of declines beginning in 1973 and 2000 -- and in a far shorter time. Nobody can predict when a bear market ends, and indeed many people had strong evidence that the worst of the 1929 Crash was over in November 1929.

As of February 27, 2009 the economic downturn that began in September 2007 is essentially indistinguishable (or the difference is "statistically insignificant") from that of 1929-1933 at the same time in the downturn. At at least two points, this downturn has been even more severe.

(I have one complaint about the graph: if I had my way it would be logarithmic.  The last five months of the 1929-1933 meltdown looks far flatter than it would in a logarithmic scale. Half the valuation of the stock market disappeared in four months,  which is a very sharp drop -- from about 22% to 11% of the 1929 level). 
« Last Edit: March 01, 2009, 11:27:42 am by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2009, 12:33:28 am »
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Highest high: 1,576.09 on Oct. 11, 2007
Highest close: 1,565.15 on Oct. 9, 2007
Lowest low: 734.52 on Feb. 27, 2009
Lowest close: 735.09 on Feb. 27, 2009

Closes are down 53.0%
High to low are down 53.4%


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Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2009, 07:37:42 am »
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A more Liberitarian society, or a more Populist one?
I would say Populist, as we have had 28 years of Reganomics(even Clinton used them a little), and now we are having major problems and it looks like our government will finally increase programs to counter Reccession.

You are right, but why not... a more liberal society ? More welfare state and more social freedom, that's not necessarily incompatible.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2009, 09:53:59 pm »
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March 3... a new low, and this one is so close to the corresponding jagged sinking line (or is it the "jagged, sickening line"?)  of 1929-1933 that one can't tell whether it is higher or lower than the one for The Big Bear Market of shattered dreams and falling expectations -- and people with wrecked lives jumping out of tall buildings.

This time the windows of tall office buildings are sealed shut to prevent that. I just wonder how many hibachis are being purchased for one-time use, and not for cookouts.

The current bear market is catching up to one of those cruel upswings of the 1929-1933 meltdown, one of those that enticed people to believe that the worst was over, only to hit them with another downturn that wipes out even more assets. This one seems to have fooled nobody; there are no teases, so far, of a short-lived bull market.

Unless the bear market ends, or else we get one of those cruel teases, the blue line crosses the gray line.

 



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« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2009, 10:24:15 pm »
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OK, I'll help break the tie.

510 day gap.

S&P 500:
Oct. 9 2007 close: 1,565.15
Mar. 2 2009 close: 700.82
Down 55.223461010126824904961185828834%



Dow:
Sep. 3 1929 close: 381.17
Jan. 26 1931 close: 171.19
Down 55.088280819581813888816013852087%


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: March 03, 2009, 01:12:45 am »
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OK, I'll help break the tie.

510 day gap.

S&P 500:
Oct. 9 2007 close: 1,565.15
Mar. 2 2009 close: 700.82
Down 55.223461010126824904961185828834%

So the blue line (2007-??)  really did cross the gray line (1929-1933).

Not statistically significant, but still quite dreadful.


George W. Bush: Herbert Hoover without a moral compass.



Dow:
Sep. 3 1929 close: 381.17
Jan. 26 1931 close: 171.19
Down 55.088280819581813888816013852087%



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« Reply #10 on: March 03, 2009, 01:47:12 am »
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Part of the speed of today's stock market decline is the rapid technologies and communications of today. But that doesn't make this decline less worrisome although it is somewhat relieving to think that as fast as this collapsed people could start buying just as quickly unless this is truly a Depression.
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Robb the Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #11 on: March 03, 2009, 12:59:26 pm »
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A more Liberitarian society, or a more Populist one?
I would say Populist, as we have had 28 years of Reganomics(even Clinton used them a little), and now we are having major problems and it looks like our government will finally increase programs to counter Reccession.

You are right, but why not... a more liberal society ? More welfare state and more social freedom, that's not necessarily incompatible.

Yeah, factories are closing, prices are going up, and the stock market is plummeting, so let's all have gay orgies in the street.

Get your head out of your ass, Antonio.

If dumb prejudices and usual insults are the only conservative arguments, it won't be difficult...
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
MooMooMoo
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« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2009, 01:51:43 pm »
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A more Liberitarian society, or a more Populist one?
I would say Populist, as we have had 28 years of Reganomics(even Clinton used them a little), and now we are having major problems and it looks like our government will finally increase programs to counter Reccession.

You are right, but why not... a more liberal society ? More welfare state and more social freedom, that's not necessarily incompatible.

Yeah, factories are closing, prices are going up, and the stock market is plummeting, so let's all have gay orgies in the street.

Get your head out of your ass, Antonio.

How old are you, Vander?
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Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2009, 09:05:08 am »
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A more Liberitarian society, or a more Populist one?
I would say Populist, as we have had 28 years of Reganomics(even Clinton used them a little), and now we are having major problems and it looks like our government will finally increase programs to counter Reccession.

You are right, but why not... a more liberal society ? More welfare state and more social freedom, that's not necessarily incompatible.

Yeah, factories are closing, prices are going up, and the stock market is plummeting, so let's all have gay orgies in the street.

Get your head out of your ass, Antonio.

How old are you, Vander?

Irrelevant.  I just think it's stupid to assume that because the economy goes into a depression, that the U.S. is going to become more socially liberal.

Antonio is from France, which has been royally screwed by the welfare state.  What great things have come out of France lately?  Nothing.  France was probably better off during the days of Louis XVI than now.  What I hate about the "welfare state" (and I think that anyone who uses the term in a positive way should be shot) is that it completely stifles entrepreneurship, motivation, excellence, et cetera, and makes people, if not tools of government, then plants of government to be remolded to whatever the government feels.  I suppose the only thing I could compare it to is an unemployed guy with no ambition who is 35 and still lives with his parents (which is what most people become under the welfare state).  It is embracing mediocrity over excellence, security over freedom.

As for social liberalism, there is not much to it.  There are three main tenets - abolition of religion, sexual promiscuity, and abortion.  These are the people who call themselves 'enlightened' and 'progressive'.  But a society without religion, with no sexual mores, and abortion all around, is in fact the most primitive society.  The 'progressives' do not know this because they do not read their literature, do not care for history, and have no use for a higher power, or any spiritual longings whatsoever.  And yet these fools call themselves enlightened and progressive.  But history will pass them by.  They will not carry their reputations on to the future.  In time, they will come to be seen for what they are - barbarians.

I didn't ever see so many prejudices in only one post. The typical cliché of assisted people doesn't exist in the real life, but is a perfect pretext to oppose justice and common sense measures. Oh, about criticizing France, I will not tell you what many Frenchs say about USA. Wink

About your vision of the society, it's not only ridiculous for its simplicity : that's a dangerous vision. Anyone who considers that religion should govern the society will alienate people's freedom. Anybody can think exactly what he wants : I don't tell you that you are stupid because you are a christian. But according to you, anybody who don't respects chrisitian life rules and principles is a barbarian.... Why should I believe in something that nobody can prove ? And above all, why you principles should govern the society ? You ( and many christians ) decreed that homosexuality=evil, that's your right. But you can't decree that everybody should think like you and that for these reason homosexuality should be forbidden. Christian ultraconservatives like you make me vomit.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2009, 09:10:48 am by Antonio V »Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2009, 10:27:21 am »
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A more Liberitarian society, or a more Populist one?
I would say Populist, as we have had 28 years of Reganomics(even Clinton used them a little), and now we are having major problems and it looks like our government will finally increase programs to counter Reccession.

You are right, but why not... a more liberal society ? More welfare state and more social freedom, that's not necessarily incompatible.

Yeah, factories are closing, prices are going up, and the stock market is plummeting, so let's all have gay orgies in the street.

Get your head out of your ass, Antonio.

How old are you, Vander?

Irrelevant.  I just think it's stupid to assume that because the economy goes into a depression, that the U.S. is going to become more socially liberal.
Quote

A depression blows away the assumptions that unrestrained capitalism itself creates sustainable progress that makes inequities irrelevant. A depression makes those inequities deadly to those at the social bottom and offensive to anyone who has a conscience. This economic meltdown resulted from blind faith in free markets in which anything goes, when the morals of elites matter not. When a social order treats lying, cheating, and stealing (so long as it is done by the "right" people and for a "good cause" -- that is, the enrichment and pampering of elites -- it effectively throws pearls before swine. We know who the swine are: people who make huge incomes by treating people badly, by steering them to bad deals, and by exploiting their political connections. We end up with Enron Corporation and Bernie Madoff.

Is liberalism a menace? Sure, it can raise taxes. But even if one is part of an old and entrenched elite, there's a huge difference between FDR on the one hand or revolutionary violence -- whether by Jacobin mobs or a well-organized Cheka bureau or early-Soviet narkom. 

Quote
Antonio is from France, which has been royally screwed by the welfare state.  What great things have come out of France lately?  Nothing.  France was probably better off during the days of Louis XVI than now.

Huh? Jacobin bands do not form in healthy societies.

Quote
  What I hate about the "welfare state" (and I think that anyone who uses the term in a positive way should be shot) is that it completely stifles entrepreneurship, motivation, excellence, et cetera, and makes people, if not tools of government, then plants of government to be remolded to whatever the government feels.

No, the welfare state does not stifle entrepreneurship. It creates business activity that otherwise would not exist. It ensures that medical care is available in places in which it would otherwise be futile. Motivation? The acquisitive instinct never dies where it isn't suppressed with terror, as in the Soviet Union in which people got Marxist/Leninist/Stalinist homilies instead of those of the feudal order that remained intact in Russia until 1917. "Suffer for your landlords and your bosses so that you may get rewards in Heaven" became "Make sacrifices on behalf of Socialism".

Like many rightists you confuse Soviet-style "socialism" (a very nasty system) with the other repudiation of unbridled capitalism, social democracy.   

Quote
  I suppose the only thing I could compare it to is an unemployed guy with no ambition who is 35 and still lives with his parents (which is what most people become under the welfare state).  It is embracing mediocrity over excellence, security over freedom.

Someone 35 living with his parents could be

(1) an incompetent. That's true everywhere.

(2) someone with responsibilities for  caring for crippled or diseased parents.

(3) someone who lives where housing is priced into the stratosphere and pay for ordinary work -- and most people do ordinary labor -- is itself ordinary.

(4) someone who expects to inherit the family business or store.

Quote
As for social liberalism, there is not much to it.  There are three main tenets - abolition of religion, sexual promiscuity, and abortion.  These are the people who call themselves 'enlightened' and 'progressive'. 

Irreligion may reflect the emptiness of the predominant religion, or the fact that people have outgrown its rituals. Promiscuity? Blame the prophylactics if you wish. Abortion? The people who have abortions often come from places where sexuality is a taboo subject in life in what I figure is a moral world in collapse.

Quote
But a society without religion, with no sexual mores, and abortion all around, is in fact the most primitive society.

Not quite. The real primitives in society live reptilian lives. They have few bonds to others and gravitate to the crudest pleasures -- acquisitiveness, gluttony, lust, power, and cheap thrills (including drugs).

Quote
  The 'progressives' do not know this because they do not read their literature, do not care for history, and have no use for a higher power, or any spiritual longings whatsoever.  And yet these fools call themselves enlightened and progressive.

Enlightenment implies a rejection of the primitive.

Quote
  But history will pass them by.  They will not carry their reputations on to the future.  In time, they will come to be seen for what they are - barbarians.

No. History already discredits the people who did well by treating others badly. 
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