Poizner vs. Brown 2010?

[Verily]

Poizner wouldn't make it past the GOP primary, I think. McClintock is the much more likely GOP nominee.

[Verily]

The Democratic Primary is likely to be very competetive as well I should think.  There are several plausible candidates for Governor. 

Well, yes, but Brown is at least a genuine possibility for the Democratic nomination (along with Villaraigosa and Newsom, and maybe Sanchez if Villaraigosa doesn't run).

[Verily]

Poizner wouldn't make it past the GOP primary, I think. McClintock is the much more likely GOP nominee.

a.k.a. Safe DEM pick-up.

A McClintock victory wouldn't be entirely out of the question; he's come very close to winning statewide office twice (as Controller in 2002 and as Lt. Gov. in 2006). Still, it would take something going wrong on the Democratic side, a vicious primary or a moderate scandal engulfing the candidate.