Soviet coup attempt of August 1991 never happened

[2952-0-0]

Let's say that the group of renegade Soviet generals never decide to mount the coup attempt, and as a result the New Union Treaty was ratified. For the short term, the Soviet Union survives (renamed the Sovereign Union probably), but in a much less rigid government structure and with a higher degree of economic capitalism. However, the underlying nationalist sentiment in the Baltic states and Moldova eventually cause them to declare independence with grudging acceptance from Moscow.

Yeltsin might not have emerged as a prominent leader, and perhaps he may not have been able to sell his package of economic reforms. As a result, the overall economy of the reformed USSR might have collapsed in a similar fashion to how the real-life Russian economy collapsed in 1998. Perhaps this would result in a more hard-line communist coming to power. I'll leave that to speculation, since I'm not very knowledgeable on this aspect of history.

[ag]

Everything pretty much the same as in real history, but about 6 months later.

"Yeltsin does not emerge as a prominent leader" is not likely, as he had emerged long before. He had been the Head of Russian Republic since 1990 and had been elected its president more than 2 months before the coup (on June 12, 1991).  He was, by any measure, the most popular politician in Russia long before he climbed that tank.

Already before the coup you had each republic, effectively, independently issuing money (true enough, it was the same Soviet rouble, but each republic could issue - and was issuing - roubles quite independently).    Under these conditions a monetary collapse was a matter of a few months, at most. In fact, it was already almost there: rationing was reemerging accross the board. By July 1991 though bread was still available for sale in Moscow, it was getting difficult to buy it after about 1 PM (in fact, even in the morning spending about 40 mins in a bread line was no longer uncommon). Most other goods were simply unavailable in the open, as inflation was accelerating, while prices remained controlled. 

Politically, things were out of control as well. Half the Republics had various varieties of pro-independence governments in place. The nominally Communist leaders of the other half were, at best, indifferet to the Soviet Union's continued existence (a couple of these are still in power in ther countries). In fact, it went beyond that: all levels of government were declaring their sovereignty over anything they could (some of the 32 districts into which Moscow was divided at the time had asserted the sovereignity over their own airspace).  Gorbachev's approval was hovering in single digits (I seem to recall that some contemporary poll in which about 6% of those sampled claimed to approve of his conduct - post-coup the number might have actualy gone up).  There wasn't much medium-term political future for him under any non-violent development.

Soviet Union had been in terminal decline for close to a year at the very least by August 1991. Nothing - repeat, nothing - was saving it at that stage, except, possibly, very decisive, forceful, cruel, competent and successful military action.  At that point I do not see any way of prolonging the USSR beyond 1992 without mass executions - though even that would have provided no guarantee. In any other course of events, any renamed USSR (under any sort of a "Union Treaty") would very quickly degenerate to the non-entity the CIS is (any stronger "Union" would have to be dominated by Yeltsin's Russia, nobody else would be happy to have it that way, and Yeltsin and the rest of Russia's leaders at the time didn't really care for it either).

BTW, "nationalist sentiment" in Moldova wasn't any stronger than that in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan or, for that matter, in Western Ukraine.

[2952-0-0]

Here's another scenario: the Soviet generals quickly and decisively seize key parts of Moscow's infrastructure early in the morning. Yeltsin is assassinated, Gorbachev is arrested and whisked to Lubyanka, and leaders in outlying republics and dissidents are either executed by kangaroo courts or rounded up in military bases.

That morning CCCP TV shows Gorbachev admitting that he has betrayed the Great Socialist Revolution and that his policies were reactionary, and ask people to cooperate with the big dogs in the Kremlin.

Private enterprises are seized, Spetsnaz troops appear on every corner, the Party is purged of any liberal tendencies, and soon the leadership coins a new terminology: дисциплина, верность, which they use pervasively.

What happens next?

Will the republics descend into a violent revolt like the one in Romania just two years earlier?

Do the Soviet generals enfource enough terror to suppress the decaying society?

Does the Party split and crumble regardless, allowing society to follow suit?

[dead0man]

Here's another scenario: the Soviet generals quickly and decisively seize key parts of Moscow's infrastructure early in the morning. Yeltsin is assassinated, Gorbachev is arrested and whisked to Lubyanka, and leaders in outlying republics and dissidents are either executed by kangaroo courts or rounded up in military bases.

That morning CCCP TV shows Gorbachev admitting that he has betrayed the Great Socialist Revolution and that his policies were reactionary, and ask people to cooperate with the big dogs in the Kremlin.

Private enterprises are seized, Spetsnaz troops appear on every corner, the Party is purged of any liberal tendencies, and soon the leadership coins a new terminology: дисциплина, верность, which they use pervasively.

What happens next?

Will the republics descend into a violent revolt like the one in Romania just two years earlier?

Do the Soviet generals enfource enough terror to suppress the decaying society?

Does the Party split and crumble regardless, allowing society to follow suit?

The nuclear situation would make a situation like that (a full military takeover) quite scary for the West.  Scarier yet if it happens today with several former Soviet SSR's as NATO members.