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ijohn57s
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« on: August 09, 2004, 09:37:56 pm »
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What State will be the first to vote for a 3rd party candidate? When will it happen?
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« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2004, 09:38:59 pm »
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What State will be the first to vote for a 3rd party candidate? When will it happen?

MS, AL, GA, LA.. that is if Rudy and Edwards in 2008 and Roy runs...
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« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2004, 09:51:17 pm »
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Minnesota.
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ijohn57s
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2004, 09:53:44 pm »
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Minnesota.

When?
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2004, 10:12:35 pm »
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What State will be the first to vote for a 3rd party candidate? When will it happen?

All states already vote for third party candidates.

I think your question is "Which state will be the first to have a third party candidate win that state?"

That has already happened too.  Republican party (in the 1800's) Bluemoose party.  Perhaps even a couple of socialist wins?  I don't know too much history, but I'm sure a google search would turn up the answer - let's see.....

From wikipedia.
In the 1860 election, the Constitutional Unionists got nearly all of their votes from former southern Whigs, and managed to win three states - Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

The know-nothing party
The height of their success came in the Election of 1856, in which they threw their weight behind Millard Fillmore (a Whig who had been president from 1850 to 1852). Fillmore lost, but won 22% of the popular vote and Maryland's 8 electoral votes.


2 Progressive parties
Roosevelt ran on the Progressive Party ticket in the 1912 Presidential election. Roosevelt had the satisfaction of defeating Taft in the popular vote, and by a large margin of 88-8 in the electoral vote, but the split engendered in the Republican vote allowed Woodrow Wilson to win the presidency.

The second was formed under the leadership of Robert M. La Follette, Sr. of Wisconsin, another erstwhile Republican, in 1924. La Follette's politics ran toward the socialist end of the spectrum; he favored public ownership of railroads, etc. His run for the presidency under this ticket garnered 17% of the popular vote, but carried only one state (his native Wisconsin).

Dixiecrat party
Thurmond subsequently ran for President on the Dixiecrat ticket in the 1948 election, and carried the previously solid Democratic states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina, receiving 1,169,021 popular votes and 39 electorial votes.

American Independent Party
The party was established in 1968 by Alabama governor George Wallace. Wallace was on every state ballot. Wallace and his running mate Curtis E. LeMay received 13.5% of the popular vote and 46 electoral votes.

So it appears that the first state to chalk up a win for a third party is the constitutionalist union party in 1860, and the last party to do so was the American Independant party in 1968.

The next most likely IMHO is WI with a Libertarian win.  Maybe this cycle, maybe next.  Might have to wait until Ed Thompson wins the governor's race, and people can accept that the world will not dissolve into anarchy if a Libertarian comes into power.

Whether we win or not, we aren't going away.  We are close to a breakthrough.  We are building our party from the ground up.  We are now winning city and county elections on a regular basis, and state office wins are becoming more common.

We're here, we're near.  Get used to it.

« Last Edit: August 10, 2004, 12:11:39 am by TexArcana »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2004, 10:48:35 pm »
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What State will be the first to vote for a 3rd party candidate? When will it happen?

In what election?  Currently, Vermont elects a socialist Congressman. Vermont might also elected a "Progressive" Governor this year who is a protege of Bernie Sanders...although he is running as a Democrat just for this election.

Connecticut, Maine, Alaska, and Minnesota have all had 3rd party or Independent Governors in the recent past.    But all of these were much more "cults of personality" than legitimate 3rd party movements.

And for the libertarians, if you guys want to be taken seriously, stop running candidates in every election that fail to get 1% of the vote.  You're just embarrassing yourselves when you keep whining about not being respected as a major party, but never backing it up at the polls.  If you're really serious, move to New Hampshire and restart your crusade at the local level.  

For any third party to ever make a dent, they will have to win some local elections, and then, state-by-state, convince state legislators to change the vote counting rules to something like preferential voting.  The Libertarians, Greens, etc, will never get anywhere with first-past-the-post.
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2004, 11:02:00 pm »
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What State will be the first to vote for a 3rd party candidate? When will it happen?

The next most likely IMHO is WI with a Libertarian win.  Maybe this year, maybe next.  Might have to wait until Ed Thompson wins the governor's race, and people can accept that the world will not dissolve into anarchy if a Libertarian comes into power.

Whether we win or not, we aren't going away.  We are close to a breakthrough.  We are building our party from the ground up.  We are now winning city and county elections on a regular basis, and state office wins are becoming more common.

We're here, we're near.  Get used to it.


The Libertarian got 0.26% of the vote in the 2000 presidential election in Wisconsin.   The Libertarian won't break 1% there in 2004 or 2008.

How do libertarians expect people to trust their ideas about government when they are so freakin' delusional about political realities!  
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2004, 11:03:08 pm »
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What State will be the first to vote for a 3rd party candidate? When will it happen?

The next most likely IMHO is WI with a Libertarian win.  Maybe this year, maybe next.  Might have to wait until Ed Thompson wins the governor's race, and people can accept that the world will not dissolve into anarchy if a Libertarian comes into power.

Whether we win or not, we aren't going away.  We are close to a breakthrough.  We are building our party from the ground up.  We are now winning city and county elections on a regular basis, and state office wins are becoming more common.

We're here, we're near.  Get used to it.


The Libertarian got 0.26% of the vote in the 2000 presidential election in Wisconsin.   The Libertarian won't break 1% there in 2004 or 2008.

How do libertarians expect people to trust their ideas about government when they are so freakin' delusional about political realities!  

We're less delusional than you think. Maybe you just don't like our optimism. Wink

Edit - also, our gubentorial candidate in WI(Ed Thompson) got 11% of the vote in 2002. We also stand a good chance of getting a representative into the state house there(he's raised more funds than all his opponents combined, and Ed Thompson got 32% of the vote in that district).
« Last Edit: August 09, 2004, 11:07:37 pm by John Dibble »Logged

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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2004, 11:06:16 pm »
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I'm sorry, but there are people on this forum who actually think Badnarik might WIN THE ELECTION.  
It's as though they have absolutely no contact with the world around them.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2004, 11:07:01 pm by Gov. NickG »Logged
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2004, 11:09:55 pm »
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I'm sorry, but there are people on this forum who actually think Badnarik might WIN THE ELECTION.  
It's as though they have absolutely no contact with the world around them.

Oh, we all realize it's unlikely he'll win, but we do think he has a good chance of making an impact. There's a chance, albeit a VERY slim one that he'll win, but a lot of things will have to happen(which require some funding). We'll work towards the goal of victory, whether you like it or not. At the very least we hope for name recognition from this election.
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2004, 11:18:50 pm »
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Regarding the initial question, perhaps Libertarian in New Mexico?  I know they currently have 5% of the vote there, which actually is quite a lot.
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2004, 11:23:00 pm »
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Regarding the initial question, perhaps Libertarian in New Mexico?  I know they currently have 5% of the vote there, which actually is quite a lot.

And this is before the advertising campaign. I'm wondering what it will be afterwards.
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2004, 11:24:07 pm »
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Regarding the initial question, perhaps Libertarian in New Mexico?  I know they currently have 5% of the vote there, which actually is quite a lot.

And this is before the advertising campaign. I'm wondering what it will be afterwards.

40% Cheesy
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TexArcana
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2004, 12:05:22 am »
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Indiana might go Badnarik.  He's at 14% now, with 40% undecided.  Most likely it won't go 3rd party, but that's what they said about Jesse Ventura.

http://www.lp.org/lpnews/0409/gividen.html

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." - Mahatma Gandhi

The LP is now at the cusp of being actively fought against, peole don't laugh anymore.  Through it all, we have grown.  We are not a personality cult, we are not going away.

We're here, we're near - get used to it.

We have 602 libertarians in local offices,  That's more than all other 3rd parties put together.  We have had state rep office holders in the past, and we will again in the future (perhaps Florida this cycle)


http://www.politicalgateway.com/cand.php?id=40&page=cand

« Last Edit: August 10, 2004, 12:15:05 am by TexArcana »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2004, 12:18:39 am »
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Regarding the initial question, perhaps Libertarian in New Mexico?  I know they currently have 5% of the vote there, which actually is quite a lot.

And this is before the advertising campaign. I'm wondering what it will be afterwards.

40% Cheesy

You know, I hope the Libertarians do well here. If they won the state, I would laugh my a$$ off for months. Smiley They SO could have taken the State Auditor office in 2002 if they'd bothered to run a freakin' candidate! There was an unopposed Dem with a LOT of ethics issues. I even suggested this to a Libertarian voter registration guy, but nothing happened. Sad At least, y'all could've gotten a good percentage...
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2004, 12:20:28 am »
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Indiana might go Badnarik.  He's at 14% now, with 40% undecided.  Most likely it won't go 3rd party, but that's what they said about Jesse Ventura.

http://www.lp.org/lpnews/0409/gividen.html

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." - Mahatma Gandhi

The LP is now at the cusp of being actively fought against, peole don't laugh anymore.  Through it all, we have grown.  We are not a personality cult, we are not going away.

We're here, we're near - get used to it.

We have 602 libertarians in local offices,  That's more than all other 3rd parties put together.  We have had state rep office holders in the past, and we will again in the future (perhaps Florida this cycle)


http://www.politicalgateway.com/cand.php?id=40&page=cand


Tex - the gubentorial candidate(Gividen) is at 14%, not Badnarik(whose mother is running for lieutenant-govenor with Gividen). Still, looks promising for Gividen.
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« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2004, 12:27:36 am »
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Regarding the initial question, perhaps Libertarian in New Mexico?  I know they currently have 5% of the vote there, which actually is quite a lot.

And this is before the advertising campaign. I'm wondering what it will be afterwards.

40% Cheesy

You know, I hope the Libertarians do well here. If they won the state, I would laugh my a$$ off for months. Smiley They SO could have taken the State Auditor office in 2002 if they'd bothered to run a freakin' candidate! There was an unopposed Dem with a LOT of ethics issues. I even suggested this to a Libertarian voter registration guy, but nothing happened. Sad At least, y'all could've gotten a good percentage...

You can make it happen in NM WMS; All you have to do is vote Badnarik, and tell your friends.  Trust me, it doesn't hurt much the first time.  Wink

PS where are these econ / social numbers everyone keeps posting.  what is the link?

PPS to John - OOPS! you are right.  My bad.  Still, if that many people are considering voting Lib for Gov. Gividen might have some coattails.
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'Need' now means wanting someone else's money. 'Greed' means wanting to keep your own. And 'Compassion' is when a politician arranges the transfer. - Joseph Sobran

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« Reply #17 on: August 10, 2004, 12:43:46 am »
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Indiana might go Badnarik.  He's at 14% now, with 40% undecided.  Most likely it won't go 3rd party, but that's what they said about Jesse Ventura.

http://www.lp.org/lpnews/0409/gividen.html
The 14% was in an online poll done by a TV station, so it wasn't scientific.
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Economic Left/Right: +8.88
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« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2004, 12:46:00 am »
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Regarding the initial question, perhaps Libertarian in New Mexico?  I know they currently have 5% of the vote there, which actually is quite a lot.

And this is before the advertising campaign. I'm wondering what it will be afterwards.

40% Cheesy

You know, I hope the Libertarians do well here. If they won the state, I would laugh my a$$ off for months. Smiley They SO could have taken the State Auditor office in 2002 if they'd bothered to run a freakin' candidate! There was an unopposed Dem with a LOT of ethics issues. I even suggested this to a Libertarian voter registration guy, but nothing happened. Sad At least, y'all could've gotten a good percentage...

You can make it happen in NM WMS; All you have to do is vote Badnarik, and tell your friends.  Trust me, it doesn't hurt much the first time.  Wink

PS where are these econ / social numbers everyone keeps posting.  what is the link?

PPS to John - OOPS! you are right.  My bad.  Still, if that many people are considering voting Lib for Gov. Gividen might have some coattails.

Check the sig...I already AM going to vote for Badnarik. Smiley Yes, even if I am more of a mild Christian Democrat (but a federalist one!), Badnarik is the best of the options out there for me. I took some flack from my ABB parents over it though. Wink And most people I know are parochials who vote how the party bosses tell them to. Sad But the 5% I saw was quite encouraging - I think you have room for growth here because of the problems both Dems and Reps have in running on their records (you can't run on a void) Cheesy

Numbers from the Political Compass, http://www.politicalcompass.org/

And I scored 50% on both axes on the Libertarian Self-Test you all run...can't get any more Centrist than that. Cheesy
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« Reply #19 on: August 10, 2004, 01:20:55 am »
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And for the libertarians...If you're really serious, move to New Hampshire and restart your crusade at the local level.

That's the idea behind the Free State Project.
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« Reply #20 on: August 10, 2004, 01:29:56 am »
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Check the sig...I already AM going to vote for Badnarik. Smiley Yes, even if I am more of a mild Christian Democrat (but a federalist one!), Badnarik is the best of the options out there for me. I took some flack from my ABB parents over it though. Wink And most people I know are parochials who vote how the party bosses tell them to. Sad But the 5% I saw was quite encouraging - I think you have room for growth here because of the problems both Dems and Reps have in running on their records (you can't run on a void) Cheesy

Numbers from the Political Compass, http://www.politicalcompass.org/

And I scored 50% on both axes on the Libertarian Self-Test you all run...can't get any more Centrist than that. Cheesy

You are voting Badnarik - oh good.  I must be getting tired, perhaps I should hang it up for the night (morning actually)

thanks for the link, here's my numbers.

Economic Left/Right: 8.12
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.18

I'm on the right side of the econ , but how come I'm not a stronger social libertarian???  Oh well.

My mother and father are divorced.  I almost have my father convinced to vote Libt this time, but my mother is one of those who would vote for Bush no matter what.  go figure.
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'Need' now means wanting someone else's money. 'Greed' means wanting to keep your own. And 'Compassion' is when a politician arranges the transfer. - Joseph Sobran

Economic Left/Right: 8.12
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.18
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« Reply #21 on: August 10, 2004, 01:32:05 am »
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And for the libertarians...If you're really serious, move to New Hampshire and restart your crusade at the local level.

That's the idea behind the Free State Project.

Well, I have nothing against those who go to the FSP, but I'm not packing up and leaving - I'll preach libertarianism where I am thank you very much. I happen to like Georgia - it's nice here, and I'm not giving up on making it nicer.
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« Reply #22 on: August 10, 2004, 01:38:11 am »
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Check the sig...I already AM going to vote for Badnarik. Smiley Yes, even if I am more of a mild Christian Democrat (but a federalist one!), Badnarik is the best of the options out there for me. I took some flack from my ABB parents over it though. Wink And most people I know are parochials who vote how the party bosses tell them to. Sad But the 5% I saw was quite encouraging - I think you have room for growth here because of the problems both Dems and Reps have in running on their records (you can't run on a void) Cheesy

Numbers from the Political Compass, http://www.politicalcompass.org/

And I scored 50% on both axes on the Libertarian Self-Test you all run...can't get any more Centrist than that. Cheesy

You are voting Badnarik - oh good.  I must be getting tired, perhaps I should hang it up for the night (morning actually)

thanks for the link, here's my numbers.

Economic Left/Right: 8.12
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.18

I'm on the right side of the econ , but how come I'm not a stronger social libertarian???  Oh well.

My mother and father are divorced.  I almost have my father convinced to vote Libt this time, but my mother is one of those who would vote for Bush no matter what.  go figure.


S'ok - it's late here too. Now post your numbers with pride in your signature! Smiley And my mom, stepdad, dad, and stepmom are all ABB and voting Kerry. My brother is leaning Libertarian but voting Kerry. But Badnarik will get one vote, anyway. Smiley
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« Reply #23 on: August 10, 2004, 04:09:02 am »
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New Hampshire

That is, if the "Free State" project works.

Also, plenty of states have voted 3rd Party in the past, but I get what you mean.
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« Reply #24 on: August 10, 2004, 09:51:07 am »
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And for the libertarians...If you're really serious, move to New Hampshire and restart your crusade at the local level.

That's the idea behind the Free State Project.

Yes, I know.  I think this is the best ideas the libertarians have ever had.  

Third parties need to start by establishing a small geographic base of support.  They can't expect to grow by running candidates everywhere that get 1% and thinking that somehow they will magically transform that into a win somewhere.
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