Gaming the States: West Virgnia
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:32:12 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  Gaming the States: West Virgnia
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Gaming the States: West Virgnia  (Read 1940 times)
JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 17, 2008, 01:25:48 PM »

Another tight one that still probably leans R.  Democrats tend to discount West Virginia's Republican swing in the last two elections.  Some opine that both Gore and Kerry came off as too intellectual and eggheaded, so voters opted for Bush.  Republicans are pretty sure that West Virginia is safe, given the passion residents there have for the second amendment and the predominance of the religious right.

What do YOU think?

And again -- what issues should candidates be set to address when stumping there?  There aren't many electorals in play, but as close as our elections have been over the last two cycles, every one counts.
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2008, 01:30:07 PM »

It's Al Time!

[P.S: Democratic pickup assuming Hillary is the nominee.]
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2008, 01:34:10 PM »


[P.S: Democratic pickup assuming Hillary is the nominee.]

Yep, just like how it was a definite pickup with another northeastern liberal Senator...and the GOP increased their margin of victory.

Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2008, 01:43:02 PM »

and the predominance of the religious right.

The religious right is not predominant in West Virginia.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

If the Democratic candidate is able to connect, even slightly, will the working class subcultures in the state, then they will win WV pretty easily. This is the big question really.
If not, then it depends on who the candidates are. Romney, for example, would almost certainly get annihilated there. Obama would do worse than Clinton. And so on.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

There are several specific issues involving the mining industry; safety (the most likely to have an electoral effect, btw), the future of the industry, will the federal government ever actually lift a finger to help the thousands who've lost their jobs in the industry over the past quarter of a century and so on and so forth.
Logged
JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2008, 01:46:20 PM »

>>>   The religious right is not predominant in West Virginia.  <<<

What's with all that tongues-speaking and snake-handling then? 
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2008, 01:52:07 PM »

>>>   The religious right is not predominant in West Virginia.  <<<

What's with all that tongues-speaking and snake-handling then? 

Totally different ballgame as long as we're using "religious right" to mean Dobson's group and those like it; ie megachurches, televangelists, and such. West Virginians are certainly religious, not that way though.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2008, 02:01:39 PM »

>>>   The religious right is not predominant in West Virginia.  <<<

What's with all that tongues-speaking and snake-handling then? 

Various small churches, often with odd stances on a few things, are quite strong in parts the state, yes. But the political influence, and thus political power, of the Religious Right is tiny in comparision to most states south of the Mason-Dixon line.
Overall church attendence is actually pretty low for the U.S (religious sentiment is probably stronger than religious organisation), the sort of strong (that word is important) link between the strength of certain religious denominations and the strength of the Republican party that is the norm elsewhere doesn't really exist in WV, and the strongest political organisation in the state is the WV Democratic Party.
Logged
JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2008, 02:04:46 PM »

Well then it would have to come down to guns, if not God.  I don't know what else the Republicans would be able to offer that would impress West Virginians.  Mine safety?  Appalachian poverty? Environmental protections?  Cleaner air and water?  Income disparity?  These issues would seem to favor Democrats...yet Gore and Kerry both lost West Virginia. 

I haven't looked to see if Clinton would have won there, had Perot not be in the mix.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2008, 02:31:12 PM »

Well then it would have to come down to guns, if not God.

I didn't say that there were no religious factors, just that the religious right does not dominate the state.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Tell me, what exactly have the federal Democrats (the efforts of Byrd et al don't count) done for West Virginia over the past few decades? Is not being as bad as the other lot really a great rallying cry?

Of course this is verging onto the wider issue of poor Democratic showings in traditional working class areas in the past two Presidential elections.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

It was Bubba's sixth best state; he connected with working class subcultures pretty well. Shame about the Presidency o/c.

Btw, Democratic % of vote in the WV's CD's in all Presidential elections since the 4th district was lost. Note the redistricting in 2002 but only a few counties moved.

2004: 1st 41.5%, 2nd 42.4%, 3rd 46%, State 43.2%
2000: 1st 42.8%, 2nd 43.9%, 3rd 50.8%, State 45.6%
1996: 1st 48.7%, 2nd 48.9%, 3rd 57.6%, State 51.5%
1992: 1st 46.2%, 2nd 44.9%, 3rd 55.1%, State 48.4%

Notice anything?
Logged
JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2008, 02:38:10 PM »

You're right, Clinton did do well.  I though Perot might have helped him there.

So do you think West Virginia could revert back to Democratic with Obama or Clinton at the top of the ticket?  Or is it safer for Republicans after two straight wins.

As to who's been effective in dealing with issues of strip mining, mine safety, workers' rights, poverty and so forth -- I agree that Democrats have been mediocre at best.  Some of that is due to Clinton's pro-business outlook in the 90's and a very moderate environmental record.  Some of that is due to having Republicans in control of Congress.

But if I am a poor person living in an Appalalchian shack, do I vote for the people who come through for me once in awhile?  Or for the ones who never do? 

I don't ask the question knowing the answer -- because, frankly, I am utterly baffled by the Republican party's ability to swing poor, white and Southern voters over.  If not voting self-interest pocket book issues, then I figure they are voting for fetuses, against gays, for what they believe is a "tough on terror" policy or because the "Southern strategy" still works.

Or do they really believe they got a tax cut?
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2008, 02:58:31 PM »

This could be fun. A dem with southern cred. against a green Republican in WV. I would say that Clinton might actually win against McCain or Romney. The only one that can make WV reddish would probably be Thompson or Hick.
Logged
CPT MikeyMike
mikeymike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,513
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.58, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2008, 03:07:27 PM »

In a McCain v. Clinton match-up, I actually think Clinton does better than John Kerry in 2004 (he got 43% in '04). However, I still don't think she'll beat McCain there. If it was Giuliani or Romney, then the chances of her breaking 50% are very realisitc.

McCain: 52%
Clinton: 47%

Updated map



Clinton: 110
McCain: 22
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2008, 03:10:12 PM »

Clinton v. Romney: Clinton 52-47
Clinton v. Giuliani: Clinton 55-44
Clinton v. McCain: McCain 56-43
Clinton v. Huckabee: Huckabee 54-45

Obama v. Romney: Romney 50-49
Obama v. Giuliani: Obama 51-48
Obama v. McCain: McCain 56-43
Obama v. Huckabee: Huckabee 54-45
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,615


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2008, 03:10:28 PM »

Kerry got 48%.
Logged
CPT MikeyMike
mikeymike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,513
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.58, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2008, 03:13:59 PM »


I'm talking about West Virginia. Not nationwide.

He got 43.20% in WV, according to Dave's site.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2008, 03:32:03 PM »

Clinton v. Romney: Clinton 52-47
Clinton v. Giuliani: Clinton 55-44
Clinton v. McCain: McCain 56-43
Clinton v. Huckabee: Huckabee 54-45

Obama v. Romney: Romney 50-49
Obama v. Giuliani: Obama 51-48
Obama v. McCain: McCain 56-43
Obama v. Huckabee: Huckabee 54-45

Huck will do better than McCain in Wva.
Logged
JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2008, 08:41:42 PM »

I think you're right on so far, Mikey -- though i might quibble about NH.

I don't see West Virginia going D anytime soon -- barring a major realization on the part of poor white folks that they've been useful idiots for the GOP over the last 20 years or so...
Logged
bullmoose88
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,515


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2008, 09:07:04 PM »

I think you're right on so far, Mikey -- though i might quibble about NH.

I don't see West Virginia going D anytime soon -- barring a major realization on the part of poor white folks that they've been useful idiots for the GOP over the last 20 years or so...

Plus the National Democratic Party has become very environmentalist (anti-coal) and gone after the elitist sectors of society...
Logged
AndrewTX
AndrewCT
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,091


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2008, 09:11:12 PM »

Eh, I see West Virginia being a swing state, and again will be too close to call. Until election day that is, and I expect the winner to carry it with about 8 points.
Logged
JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2008, 09:13:18 PM »

I think you're right on so far, Mikey -- though i might quibble about NH.

I don't see West Virginia going D anytime soon -- barring a major realization on the part of poor white folks that they've been useful idiots for the GOP over the last 20 years or so...

Plus the National Democratic Party has become very environmentalist (anti-coal) and gone after the elitist sectors of society...

That's a real hard one.  If I am coal state voter, I don't want to risk losing my job to an environmental agenda.  On the other hand, if going to work everyday is liable to make me deathly ill, I want good health care coverage.  And if my job is dangerous, I want a party in power that's going to enforce or toughen workplace safety regulations.

Of course, in my more jaded moments I am not sure there are many Americans anymore who think carefully about these things.  Even if it is a bread and butter issue for them.

That there Al Gore fella seems like a smart guy but I'd rather have a beer with Dubya.
Logged
HardRCafé
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,364
Italy
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2008, 07:04:52 AM »


I'm talking about West Virginia. Not nationwide.

He got 43.20% in WV, according to Dave's site.

West Virginia was a surprise Bush blowout.  When it was called immediately for Bush, everyone knew Kerry was in trouble.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2008, 07:00:40 PM »

That's a real hard one.  If I am coal state voter, I don't want to risk losing my job to an environmental agenda.

If you live in West Virginia and actually have a job (these two things don't go together so well; the employment rate in WV is but a tad over 50%) then it's unlikely that you stand much of a chance of losing your job to an environmental agenda; only about 3% of the workforce are in mining jobs these days and these jobs are heavily concentrated in a couple of areas. Btw, there's not much evidence to back up the assertion that anti-environmentist voting has hurt the Democrats in recent elections. Even Kerry did better in the main coalfield than the rest of the state (the swing against him was very strong in much of the area, but then he did very badly in non-metropolitan industrial areas generally. And inside the area there was no link between mining employment and the swing).

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

But to what extent to the federal Democrats stand for such things?
Logged
JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2008, 08:25:19 PM »

That's a real hard one.  If I am coal state voter, I don't want to risk losing my job to an environmental agenda.

If you live in West Virginia and actually have a job (these two things don't go together so well; the employment rate in WV is but a tad over 50%) then it's unlikely that you stand much of a chance of losing your job to an environmental agenda; only about 3% of the workforce are in mining jobs these days and these jobs are heavily concentrated in a couple of areas. Btw, there's not much evidence to back up the assertion that anti-environmentist voting has hurt the Democrats in recent elections. Even Kerry did better in the main coalfield than the rest of the state (the swing against him was very strong in much of the area, but then he did very badly in non-metropolitan industrial areas generally. And inside the area there was no link between mining employment and the swing).

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

But to what extent to the federal Democrats stand for such things?

Certainly not enough to satisfy me.  But since the Socialists have no chance, I gotta take what I can get.  And Republicans have come a loooooong way from the the days of Teddy Roosevelt.

I do have a question and you seem to be a go-to guy on West Virginia.  How in hell did Michael Dukakis win there in 1988?  Was Jesse Jackson's tour of Appalachia something that ended up helping Dukakis?  I mean, I could have seen Dukakis faring better in Arkansas or Missouri. But to have carried WVA and not Pennsylvania or even Vermont?  I guess it goes to show that as similar as the last two or three national elections have been, things aren't set in stone forever.

I would appreciate your thoughts!
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: January 19, 2008, 06:59:54 AM »

Despite himself Dukakis did pretty well in non-metropolitan industrial areas (economic events over the past decade being an important reason for that). O/c 1988 was also the year in which corrupt Republican Governer Arch Moore was swept out by a landslide and it's possible that Dukakis benefited from that (the swing in WV was the highest in any state east of the Mississippi that wasn't in New England).
Logged
JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: January 19, 2008, 11:46:13 AM »
« Edited: January 19, 2008, 12:35:40 PM by JSojourner »

Despite himself Dukakis did pretty well in non-metropolitan industrial areas (economic events over the past decade being an important reason for that). O/c 1988 was also the year in which corrupt Republican Governer Arch Moore was swept out by a landslide and it's possible that Dukakis benefited from that (the swing in WV was the highest in any state east of the Mississippi that wasn't in New England).

OMG!  I had forgotten about Governor Moore.

Wow -- yer good!  Thanks for the analysis. 

It still shocks me to see Dukakis winning WV and losing Vermont!
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.058 seconds with 13 queries.