Gaming the States: Georgia

[JSojourner]

Atlanta is pretty Democratic, but not enough to make up for the rest of a VERY Republican state. (Anyone know why Hancock County went 76% for John Kerry in 04?)

As to 2008, I just don't see enough evidence that Georgia could ever go Democrat or even lean that way.  Things would have to be disastrous in Iraq, with the economy and in terms of GOP scandal for this state to turn blue.

Thoughts?

[SPQR]

Anything over 41.37% will be fine.

[Bacon King]

In a national democratic landslide, Georgia would be the first diehard republican state to swing over.

[JSojourner]

In a national democratic landslide, Georgia would be the first diehard republican state to swing over.

Before North Carolina, Kentucky or Louisiana?  (I really don't know -- just asking, and since you live there, I trust your judgment.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Georgia turns out to be the worst state in the Deep South for the Democrats this year. Demographic changes have killed the Georgia Democrats, dead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Anyone know why Hancock County went 76% for John Kerry in 04?)

Majority black and by quite a lot IIRC.

[Kushahontas]

the fastest growing parts of the state are strong/lean republican. i think that it's off the table for us dems for the next 2-3 election cycles but after that i think it could become closer and possibly....even tossup depending on population/opinion trends.

[Bacon King]

In a national democratic landslide, Georgia would be the first diehard republican state to swing over.

Before North Carolina, Kentucky or Louisiana?  (I really don't know -- just asking, and since you live there, I trust your judgment.)

I wouldn't call NC or KY 'diehard republican' in the same way as GA. Louisiana is, maybe, but only since the demographic changes after Katrina. I'm saying GA would go dem before Alabama, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, etc. Basically, all the states that wouldn't go for the dems in any 'normal' circumstances.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's an interesting statement on demographic changes that no one would ever have called Georgia diehard Republican before about 2000 or so. 2002 maybe.

[CPT MikeyMike]

In a national democratic landslide, Georgia would be the first diehard republican state to swing over.

Before North Carolina, Kentucky or Louisiana?  (I really don't know -- just asking, and since you live there, I trust your judgment.)

I disagree with Bacon on that one. IMO, The first solid southern GOP state to go would be either Virginia and North Carolina.

As for Georgia, McCain or Huckabee would win the state with ease 55%+. Romney would probably hit 50% I can not see Clinton or Obama really doing that well in Georgia. It has really swung Republican since the early 1990's.

Again, sticking with a McCain v. Clinton match-up:

McCain: 58%
Clinton: 41%

Updated map

Clinton: 110
McCain: 60

[Bacon King]

I guess we just differ on our definition of 'diehard' Republican, Mike. I'd consider Georgia to be a level stronger for the Republicans than either NC or VA, both which regularly elect Democratic candidates to statewide office while Georgia, in the past few years, is basically a one-party state.

[CPT MikeyMike]

I guess we just differ on our definition of 'diehard' Republican, Mike. I'd consider Georgia to be a level stronger for the Republicans than either NC or VA, both which regularly elect Democratic candidates to statewide office while Georgia, in the past few years, is basically a one-party state.

I think our definition/geography of the south is different too. Are you talking only the "Deep South?"

I'm saying GA would go dem before Alabama, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, etc. Basically, all the states that wouldn't go for the dems in any 'normal' circumstances.

I agree 100% with that analysis.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Clinton v. Romney: Romney 52-47
Clinton v. Giuliani: Giuliani 53-46
Clinton v. Huckabee: Huckabee 62-37
Clinton v. McCain: McCain 60-39

Obama v. Romney: Romney 52-47
Obama v. Giuliani: Giuliani 53-46
Obama v. Huckabee: Huckabee 60-39
Obama v. McCain: McCain 58-41