For a start at present the Trend is towards increasing turnout. I suspect alot of this has to do with emotions towards Bush rather than anything really substantial. When turnout fell below 50% for the first time ever in a Presidential race in 1996 there was alot of typical meaningless soul-searching about "American Democracy" Whatever that is - The simple fact that both candidates in a way benefited from the low turnout (Clinton got re-elected while with high turnouts that would be more dubious as you get alot of independents while Dole didn't get destroyed as some predicted which might have happened if it weren't for the perception of it being a pointless and finished race.) was ignored.
Also between 2000 and 2004 there was a clear attempt by some Democrats to court Nader voters (many of whom are quite worth hating..) which clearly would not have happened if 3% of voters in 2000 didn't go for Nader (and o\c exaggerated by the whole "close Election" thing.)
For it to reach that levels you would have make voting an elitist exercise away from the notion of "Civil duty" in the first place - and for that to happen within the present course of events (which is unthinkable..) would probably mean your revolution has already started.
But whither Revolution?
Less true (not but entirely untrue) btw in countries which have a more proportional electoral system.
Essentially true - and Apathy is the reason most people don't vote. I think there is a sense even among non-voters that 'the system' works, but they don't quite the people running it. Which is different from you want Tweed.
Btw BRTD from what I know Nader ain't going to run. I *think* Camejo or possibly Medea Benjamin might (as the Greens nominee.. unless they choose McKinney. Which I really hope they don't.)