Affluence vs. Voting Patterns

[classical liberal]

10 most affluent communities according to the Census Bureau and their Presidential results in 2000 according to this Site:

DC Metro:
Loudon County, VA - Bush +13 in 2000
Fairfax County, VA - Gore +1.5 in 2000
Montgomery County, MD - Gore +32 in 2000
Howard County, MD - Gore +11 in 2000

NYC Metro:
Somerset County, NJ - Gore +0.2 in 2000
Hunterdon County, NJ - Bush +15 in 2000
Morris County, NJ - Bush +8 in 2000
Rockland County, NY - Gore +20 in 2000

SF Metro:
Santa Clara County, CA - Gore +30 in 2000
Marin County, CA - Gore +43 in 2000

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My predictions for this year are:

DC Metro:
Loudon County, VA - Bush +10
Fairfax County, VA - Kerry +3
Montgomery County, MD - Kerry +35
Howard County, MD - Kerry +15

NYC Metro:
Somerset County, NJ - Kerry +2
Hunterdon County, NJ - Bush +12
Morris County, NJ - Bush +6
Rockland County, NY - Kerry +22

SF Metro:
Santa Clara County, CA - Kerry +35
Marin County, CA - Kerry +45

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Comments?

[MODU]

Every single one will be an improvement for Kerry (over Gore)?

[Beef]

SF Metro:
Santa Clara County, CA - Gore +30 in 2000

Comments?

Does this take cost of living into account?  People get very high incomes compared to the rest of the country, but a one-room shack on a .2 acre lot costs $500,000.

[classical liberal]

Actually, a 1 room shack in half of those counties is a half mil.

[classical liberal]

Every single one will be an improvement for Kerry (over Gore)?

Sure, the areas where Bush is improving are rural.  The Dems are picking up ground in the suburban areas as "Starbucks drinking" types move in.  Just look at how Bush's father did in these places:

DC Metro:
Loudon County, VA - Bush +33 in 1988
Fairfax County, VA - Bush +23 in 1988
Montgomery County, MD - Dukakis +3 in 1988
Howard County, MD - Bush +13 in 1988

NYC Metro:
Somerset County, NJ - Bush +29 in 1988
Hunterdon County, NJ - Bush +39 in 1988
Morris County, NJ - Bush +37 in 1988
Rockland County, NY - Bush +14 in 1988

SF Metro:
Santa Clara County, CA - Dukakis +4 in 1988
Marin County, CA - Dukakis +29 in 1988

[Beef]

Sure, the areas where Bush is improving are rural.  The Dems are picking up ground in the suburban areas as "Starbucks drinking" types move in.  

In my experience, the Dems are the ones who are anti-Starbucks (symbol of globalism, forces the mom+pop shops out of business, etc.).

[classical liberal]

Dems who are against Starbucks are either Union guys who their party left behind but haven't realized it yet or hypocritical "Liberals" who sit at Starbucks drinking frappuchinos while trash talking about globalism and such things.

[Blue Rectangle]

State, Average Monthly Income, Bush's 2000 PV
District of Columbia   1039   8.95
Connecticut   911   38.44
New York   904   35.23
Massachusetts   871   32.5
New Jersey   863   40.29
California   784   41.65
Illinois   764   42.58
Delaware   759   41.9
Michigan   734   46.14
Washington   731   44.56
Colorado   731   50.75
Maryland   728   40.18
Minnesota   722   45.5
Texas   707   59.3
Virginia   707   52.47
New Hampshire   704   48.07
Georgia   692   54.67
Alaska   691   58.62
Pennsylvania   678   46.43
Ohio   648   49.97
Arizona   647   50.95
Missouri   640   50.42
Rhode Island   639   31.91
Oregon   636   46.52
Nevada   635   49.52
Indiana   626   56.65
North Carolina   625   56.03
Tennessee   624   51.15
Wisconsin   618   47.61
Florida   612   48.85
Kansas   597   58.04
Hawaii   595   37.46
Kentucky   591   56.5
Vermont   589   40.7
Alabama   587   56.47
Louisiana   577   52.55
Utah   577   66.83
South Carolina   567   56.83
Maine   562   43.97
Iowa   561   48.22
Nebraska   559   62.25
Wyoming   544   67.76
New Mexico   542   47.85
Oklahoma   542   60.31
West Virginia   535   51.92
Idaho   534   67.17
Arkansas   533   51.31
Mississippi   506   57.62
North Dakota   502   60.66
South Dakota   498   60.3
Montana   477   58.44

Very strong correlation

[Sibboleth]

State, Average Monthly Income, Bush's 2000 PV
District of Columbia   1039   8.95
Connecticut   911   38.44
New York   904   35.23
Massachusetts   871   32.5
New Jersey   863   40.29
California   784   41.65
Illinois   764   42.58
Delaware   759   41.9
Michigan   734   46.14
Washington   731   44.56
Colorado   731   50.75
Maryland   728   40.18
Minnesota   722   45.5
Texas   707   59.3
Virginia   707   52.47
New Hampshire   704   48.07
Georgia   692   54.67
Alaska   691   58.62
Pennsylvania   678   46.43
Ohio   648   49.97
Arizona   647   50.95
Missouri   640   50.42
Rhode Island   639   31.91
Oregon   636   46.52
Nevada   635   49.52
Indiana   626   56.65
North Carolina   625   56.03
Tennessee   624   51.15
Wisconsin   618   47.61
Florida   612   48.85
Kansas   597   58.04
Hawaii   595   37.46
Kentucky   591   56.5
Vermont   589   40.7
Alabama   587   56.47
Louisiana   577   52.55
Utah   577   66.83
South Carolina   567   56.83
Maine   562   43.97
Iowa   561   48.22
Nebraska   559   62.25
Wyoming   544   67.76
New Mexico   542   47.85
Oklahoma   542   60.31
West Virginia   535   51.92
Idaho   534   67.17
Arkansas   533   51.31
Mississippi   506   57.62
North Dakota   502   60.66
South Dakota   498   60.3
Montana   477   58.44

Very strong correlation

Lies, damn lies, and statistics. In most states, the poorest areas go Dem and the richest GOP.

[classical liberal]

Does anyone see Bush winning any of the 10 other than Morris, Hunterdon, and Loudon?

[opebo]

Are those figures really average monthly income or are they average *weekly* income?  They seem awfully low.

[Sibboleth]

Does anyone see Bush winning any of the 10 other than Morris, Hunterdon, and Loudon?

If Bush really has gained in NJ he'll win Somerset again... I suppose he has a chance in Fairfax... but Kerry will probably win that one.
Out of interest, what are the 10 poorest counties (according to etc) ?

[Blue Rectangle]

Are those figures really average monthly income or are they average *weekly* income?  They seem awfully low.

<Cough> Ahem...whoops...
Here's the link.

[Blue Rectangle]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics. In most states, the poorest areas go Dem and the richest GOP.

Well, I won't do a state-by-state analysis, but I can speak for CO.  There are 4 notable Democratic strongholds in CO:
Pueblo (steel mill, big union/blue collar town)
Central Denver (mostly high-income resisdents)
Boulder (CU campus, upper middle class and ivory tower liberals)
Aspen (Ultra rich)

Much of the poorest regions are either Republican-leaning or strongly Republican, as are most middle class suburb areas.

[Shira]

State, Average Monthly Income, Bush's 2000 PV
District of Columbia   1039   8.95
Connecticut   911   38.44
New York   904   35.23
Massachusetts   871   32.5
New Jersey   863   40.29
California   784   41.65
Illinois   764   42.58
Delaware   759   41.9
Michigan   734   46.14
Washington   731   44.56
Colorado   731   50.75
Maryland   728   40.18
Minnesota   722   45.5
Texas   707   59.3
Virginia   707   52.47
New Hampshire   704   48.07
Georgia   692   54.67
Alaska   691   58.62
Pennsylvania   678   46.43
Ohio   648   49.97
Arizona   647   50.95
Missouri   640   50.42
Rhode Island   639   31.91
Oregon   636   46.52
Nevada   635   49.52
Indiana   626   56.65
North Carolina   625   56.03
Tennessee   624   51.15
Wisconsin   618   47.61
Florida   612   48.85
Kansas   597   58.04
Hawaii   595   37.46
Kentucky   591   56.5
Vermont   589   40.7
Alabama   587   56.47
Louisiana   577   52.55
Utah   577   66.83
South Carolina   567   56.83
Maine   562   43.97
Iowa   561   48.22
Nebraska   559   62.25
Wyoming   544   67.76
New Mexico   542   47.85
Oklahoma   542   60.31
West Virginia   535   51.92
Idaho   534   67.17
Arkansas   533   51.31
Mississippi   506   57.62
North Dakota   502   60.66
South Dakota   498   60.3
Montana   477   58.44

Very strong correlation

Had done a correlation between level of education and voting you would have found that the lower the education level - Bush's numbers are going up

[classical liberal]

Out of interest, what are the 10 poorest counties (according to etc) ?

Percent of People Below Poverty Level:
Population for Whom Poverty Status is Determined (County level)
 
    County                            Percent Impovrished
1  Hidalgo County, TX         36.2
2  Cameron County, TX       34.8
3  Bronx County, NY            29.8
4  El Paso County, TX          26.7
5  Tulare County, CA           25.0
6  St. Louis City, MO            24.0
7  Nueces County, TX          23.1
8  Orleans Parish, LA           21.7
9  Philadelphia County, PA  21.2
10  Baltimore City, MD         20.6
11  Kings County, NY           20.4
12  Fresno County, CA        20.1
13  Kern County, CA            19.8
14  Mobile County, AL          19.6
14  New York County, NY     19.6

Al-

For kicks, look at the blackest and most hispanic counties list and compare.

[nclib]

Had done a correlation between level of education and voting you would have found that the lower the education level - Bush's numbers are going up

Exactly. The main reason income and voting are correlated is because income and education are correlated and education and voting are correlated.

[nclib]

In most states, the poorest areas go Dem and the richest GOP.

In many states, the poorest areas are majority-minority and therefore go Dem.

Once race is controlled for, wealthy areas are much more Democratic than poor areas.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Once race is controlled for, wealthy areas are much more Democratic than poor areas.

This isn't the case by any means.

Who won Knott, KY?

Who won Logan, WV?

Not Dumbya!

[Shira]

There is some correlation between poverty and ignorance and between ignorance and voting for Bush.

[Sibboleth]

Out of interest, what are the 10 poorest counties (according to etc) ?

Percent of People Below Poverty Level:
Population for Whom Poverty Status is Determined (County level)
 
    County                            Percent Impovrished
1  Hidalgo County, TX         36.2
2  Cameron County, TX       34.8
3  Bronx County, NY            29.8
4  El Paso County, TX          26.7
5  Tulare County, CA           25.0
6  St. Louis City, MO            24.0
7  Nueces County, TX          23.1
8  Orleans Parish, LA           21.7
9  Philadelphia County, PA  21.2
10  Baltimore City, MD         20.6
11  Kings County, NY           20.4
12  Fresno County, CA        20.1
13  Kern County, CA            19.8
14  Mobile County, AL          19.6
14  New York County, NY     19.6

Al-

For kicks, look at the blackest and most hispanic counties list and compare.

By poorest I meant lowest income

[Sibboleth]

There is some correlation between poverty and ignorance and between ignorance and voting for Bush.

CTGuy:  OFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Sibboleth]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: it's all relative. Take Connecticut as an example.
Look at the 2000 Town map on the Atlas (it's free) and compare it to This

P.S:
Median Household income is more useful than personal income IMO.

[Sibboleth]

Recommended:

http://www.fairdata2000.com/SocioEconMapper/

[bejkuy]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: it's all relative. Take Connecticut as an example.
Look at the 2000 Town map on the Atlas (it's free) and compare it to This

P.S:
Median Household income is more useful than personal income IMO.

Like I said earlier, compare Oregon.  The richest areas vote DEM!

Your theory doesn't hold water.