Affluence vs. Voting Patterns

[Verily]

It was insane how wildly Rockland County, New York swung in 2004. It's almost entirely wealthy NYC commuters (having basically no poor communities or local communities despite being semi-rural in areas), so I suppose it was hit hardest by the 9/11 effect.

[Verily]

Regardless of how counties vote, income is a very poor predictor of how people will vote. The poorer the income bracket, the better the Dem will do, but this is largely a function of higher numbers of minorities. Ethnicity is a much better predictor. Generic Whites vote about 60-40 Republican. Blacks vote 90-10 Democrat. Jews vote 80-20 Democrat etc.

Protestant (and Evangelical, for those who insist that they aren't Protestant) Whites are the only significant demographic that votes Republican, interestingly, but by a wider margin than Catholic Whites vote Democratic, and those two together make up the vast majority of the population.

[Verily]

Fezzy, I have noticed New jersey does have a Democratic lean, but I have never seen an election of which the Democrat landslides in NJ...

It's mostly just polarization between urban and inner suburban areas and outer suburban and exurban areas. The two areas are nearly equal in population, but the urban/inner suburban areas have a slight edge, so they win. New Jersey was also heavily hit by the 9/11 effect in 2004. In 2000, it was further affected by gun control, which New Jersey, having no rural areas to speak of, is strongly for. With the fading of gun control as an issue combined with the 9/11 effect, Bush did much better in NJ in 2004 than 2000, but I don't think any Republican could improve on that performance running nationwide.

[Verily]

Fezzy, I have noticed New jersey does have a Democratic lean, but I have never seen an election of which the Democrat landslides in NJ...

It's mostly just polarization between urban and inner suburban areas and outer suburban and exurban areas. The two areas are nearly equal in population, but the urban/inner suburban areas have a slight edge, so they win. New Jersey was also heavily hit by the 9/11 effect in 2004. In 2000, it was further affected by gun control, which New Jersey, having no rural areas to speak of, is strongly for. With the fading of gun control as an issue combined with the 9/11 effect, Bush did much better in NJ in 2004 than 2000, but I don't think any Republican could improve on that performance running nationwide.

I partially agree.  I definitely agree that New Jersey votes mostly on the most pressing issues of the time.  I do not agree that the 9/11 effect can explain the Bush jump.  It does not explain the massive leap rightward in Monmouth and Ocean counties as well as all southern counties nor does it explain the lack of swing in Somerset, Morris, and Hunterdon, very wealthy, heavy commuter counties.  The shore was almost completely unaffected by 9/11 while the suburbs were hugely impacted.  The biggest swing came from the least affected areas.

To respond to this (with the retrospect of 2008 in mind now, of course), the odd result for Ocean County was 2000, not 2004. And it was gun control that made Ocean County almost vote Democratic; it's exactly the sort of area that's full of easily frightened middle class whites. Upper class whites like those populating northern Bergen, outer Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon, etc. are not so easily scared. (Plus, Somerset in particular and Morris and Hunterdon to a lesser extent are experiencing demographic changes that are making them more Democratic in the long run.)

Anyway, on the urban-rural divide, there certainly are rural areas in NJ, so I suppose I was misspeaking. There are essentially no people living there compared to urban and suburban areas, however. (Warren and Salem Counties are the two smallest counties in the state by population; nearly nine-tenths of Burlington County's population lives within 10 miles of the Delaware River.) The only rural area with any substantial population is Cumberland County, and the high Hispanic population there combined with some urbanization in Vineland, Millville, etc. makes even those areas not particularly opposed to gun control.