Affluence vs. Voting Patterns

[classical liberal]

10 most affluent communities according to the Census Bureau and their Presidential results in 2000 according to this Site:

DC Metro:
Loudon County, VA - Bush +13 in 2000
Fairfax County, VA - Gore +1.5 in 2000
Montgomery County, MD - Gore +32 in 2000
Howard County, MD - Gore +11 in 2000

NYC Metro:
Somerset County, NJ - Gore +0.2 in 2000
Hunterdon County, NJ - Bush +15 in 2000
Morris County, NJ - Bush +8 in 2000
Rockland County, NY - Gore +20 in 2000

SF Metro:
Santa Clara County, CA - Gore +30 in 2000
Marin County, CA - Gore +43 in 2000

----------------------------------------------

My predictions for this year are:

DC Metro:
Loudon County, VA - Bush +10
Fairfax County, VA - Kerry +3
Montgomery County, MD - Kerry +35
Howard County, MD - Kerry +15

NYC Metro:
Somerset County, NJ - Kerry +2
Hunterdon County, NJ - Bush +12
Morris County, NJ - Bush +6
Rockland County, NY - Kerry +22

SF Metro:
Santa Clara County, CA - Kerry +35
Marin County, CA - Kerry +45

----------------------------------------------

Comments?

[classical liberal]

Actually, a 1 room shack in half of those counties is a half mil.

[classical liberal]

Every single one will be an improvement for Kerry (over Gore)?

Sure, the areas where Bush is improving are rural.  The Dems are picking up ground in the suburban areas as "Starbucks drinking" types move in.  Just look at how Bush's father did in these places:

DC Metro:
Loudon County, VA - Bush +33 in 1988
Fairfax County, VA - Bush +23 in 1988
Montgomery County, MD - Dukakis +3 in 1988
Howard County, MD - Bush +13 in 1988

NYC Metro:
Somerset County, NJ - Bush +29 in 1988
Hunterdon County, NJ - Bush +39 in 1988
Morris County, NJ - Bush +37 in 1988
Rockland County, NY - Bush +14 in 1988

SF Metro:
Santa Clara County, CA - Dukakis +4 in 1988
Marin County, CA - Dukakis +29 in 1988

[classical liberal]

Dems who are against Starbucks are either Union guys who their party left behind but haven't realized it yet or hypocritical "Liberals" who sit at Starbucks drinking frappuchinos while trash talking about globalism and such things.

[classical liberal]

Does anyone see Bush winning any of the 10 other than Morris, Hunterdon, and Loudon?

[classical liberal]

Out of interest, what are the 10 poorest counties (according to etc) ?

Percent of People Below Poverty Level:
Population for Whom Poverty Status is Determined (County level)
 
    County                            Percent Impovrished
1  Hidalgo County, TX         36.2
2  Cameron County, TX       34.8
3  Bronx County, NY            29.8
4  El Paso County, TX          26.7
5  Tulare County, CA           25.0
6  St. Louis City, MO            24.0
7  Nueces County, TX          23.1
8  Orleans Parish, LA           21.7
9  Philadelphia County, PA  21.2
10  Baltimore City, MD         20.6
11  Kings County, NY           20.4
12  Fresno County, CA        20.1
13  Kern County, CA            19.8
14  Mobile County, AL          19.6
14  New York County, NY     19.6

Al-

For kicks, look at the blackest and most hispanic counties list and compare.

[classical liberal]

The richest and the poorest have always been more Democrat-leaning and the middle class has always been more Republican-leaning.

This fact is further corroborated by the fundraising issues.  The Republicans have tons of $2,000-level contributors.  Pre-BCRA, the Democrats had tons of uber-rich contributors.

I think that the poorest are more than leaning to the Dems, while the middle class is more of a slight GOP lean, though that's nitpicking.  The original point of my post is the the Upper middle class is trending to vote more like the upper class than the middle class.

[classical liberal]

Are Bronx County and Queens County officially under the rule of the NYC Council and the Mayor?  If so what happened to the Bronx County Council and the Queens County Council?