The Telegraph launches an online 'swingometer'

[minionofmidas]

Hampshire, excluding largely unaffected (mostly coastal) portions:

Aldershot    21.7-44.0-28.9  21.8-44.0-28.6  22.3-44.0-28.7
NE Hamp     16.6-53.1-27.0  21.3-50.1-24.7  13.1-57.6-25.4
E Hamp       16.5-47.0-33.9  12.2-52.9-33.5  18.0-47.0-32.3
Meon Val     10.6-45.9-41.0  10.6-42.6-42.1  10.8-45.1-40.9
Winchester   9.3-37.3-50.0    9.2-37.4-52.0    8.9-36.7-51.6
Basingstoke 32.6-38.8-21.9  32.5-39.3-22.0  33.8-38.3-21.7
NW Hamp     20.9-50.5-25.0  20.7-50.3-25.0  20.3-50.3-25.7

Funny variations in East and NE Hampshire... which sadly are very safe seats. Interesting differences on quite how marginal Meon Valley is.

[minionofmidas]

Avon (excluding North Somerset Weston-supe-Mare, Clevedon and Portishead.)

Bristol S    48.6-19.6-23.7  48.7-19.6-23.6  49.1-20.0-22.8
Bristol E    45.5-28.2-19.7  44.8-26.1-22.0  44.8-28.3-20.4
Bristol W   36.5-16.4-39.1  37.1-17.5-38.0  39.0-13.7-40.5
Bristol NW 38.2-32.5-24.9  39.1-30.9-24.9  36.5-34.4-24.3
Kingswood 45.9-32.2-18.0  46.5-34.3-18.4  46.4-32.7-17.5
Filton&BS   33.9-35.5-28.4  32.7-36.1-26.6  32.8-35.7-27.2
Thornb&Y   10.9-30.9-54.3  10.7-31.1-54.7  10.9-30.7-54.9
Somers NE 38.6-39.1-19.6  38.9-38.9-18.5  37.9-38.5-20.4
Bath           14.4-31.9-45.5  14.0-32.2-46.2  14.8-32.1-45.5

Note the discrepancies in Bristol NW and Filton; they're correlated somewhat. The areas moved in and out of Bristol W must be very different in character - the Tories just about collapse in the seat.
Baxter has Labour just ahead in the former Wansdyke - of course, the incumbent's probably a goner even if Baxter's calculation is correct. Bath and the former Northavon both become rather safer for their LD incumbents due to having areas removed.

Funny, I thought Bridgwater & West Somerset was a Tory-held marginal... I was sadly mistaken:

Bridgw   25.6-45.4-22.6  25.9-43.1-23.9  25.9-45.1-22.6
Taunton 12.1-41.1-44.4  11.8-43.2-43.2  11.9-41.4-44.4

Baxter has the changes to Taunton (now Taunton Deane) marginally helping the Tories, the other sets have them marginally helping the LDs. LDs ahead by a grand total of 14 votes according to Baxter.

[minionofmidas]

County of Wiltshire (as opposed to Swindon Unitary Authority)

Wiltshire N    12.0-49.7-34.4   8.1-51.2-38.5  11.5-51.1-33.9
Devizes         22.4-51.0-22.3  22.3-53.1-19.5 21.6-49.3-24.7
Chippenh      16.8-37.7-42.4  19.1-33.1-44.2  16.8-38.4-41.1
Wiltshire SW 17.2-49.1-30.3  16.9-48.7-28.7  18.1-48.2-29.8
Salisbury       18.6-46.4-26.9  20.2-48.1-25.7  18.3-47.3-27.0

There are discrepancies here, but do they matter?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note the discrepancies in Bristol NW and Filton; they're correlated somewhat. The areas moved in and out of Bristol W must be very different in character - the Tories just about collapse in the seat.

Boundary changes in and around Bristol are radical; both NW and W are basically new seats. W should have been renamed Bristol Central.

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I don't know... the Tory candidate is really quite dreadful. But longterm demographic changes are harmful to Labour in that area as it suburbanises.

[minionofmidas]

Note the discrepancies in Bristol NW and Filton; they're correlated somewhat. The areas moved in and out of Bristol W must be very different in character - the Tories just about collapse in the seat.

Boundary changes in and around Bristol are radical; both NW and W are basically new seats. W should have been renamed Bristol Central.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't know... the Tory candidate is really quite dreadful. But longterm demographic changes are harmful to Labour in that area as it suburbanises.

What's that seat like... I sort of wondered why it was Labour at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's that seat like... I sort of wondered why it was Labour at all.

Basically it's Bristol and Bath suburbs and commutervilles plus about 95% of the old Somerset coalfield (Midsomer Norton and so on). Back when the area was much more rural there was a fairly reliable Labour seat (Frome) in the area. Sigh.

[minionofmidas]

What's that seat like... I sort of wondered why it was Labour at all.

Basically it's Bristol and Bath suburbs and commutervilles plus about 95% of the old Somerset coalfield (Midsomer Norton and so on). Back when the area was much more rural there was a fairly reliable Labour seat (Frome) in the area. Sigh.

A Somerset coalfield!? Tell me - did they use any non-flammable materiels in making that sheltered isle you're on or is it all coal?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Somerset coalfield!?

Yeah, though it was never very big and was shut down after nationalisation. IIRC the coal owners were even nastier than usual. There was also a coalfield east of Bristol (covered by Bristol suburbia these days and largely in the Kingswood constituency).

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'tis time to quote (from memory so probably not word perfect) Nye Bevan: "this island is made mostly from coal and is surrounded by fish. Only an organising genius could create a shortage of coal and fish at the same time".

[minionofmidas]

A Somerset coalfield!?

Yeah, though it was never very big and was shut down after nationalisation. IIRC the coal owners were even nastier than usual. There was also a coalfield east of Bristol (covered by Bristol suburbia these days and largely in the Kingswood constituency).

Which is also quite Labour. Although that could have just as well have been due to some sinky overspill estates etc - it's fairly densely settled, anyhow (it's actually a Borough Constituency. )

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which is also quite Labour. Although that could have just as well have been due to some sinky overspill estates etc - it's fairly densely settled, anyhow (it's actually a Borough Constituency. )

IIRC (and it's no more than that as I don't know the area well at all) it's not so much overspilldom as cheaper (when built at least) owner-occupied housing. Could be wrong. Area was Labour before then though and was the core of the Labour vote in the old South Gloucestershire constituency (another largely rural seat where Labour was eventually killed dead by the postwar suburban boom) which was Tony Crosland's first seat.

[minionofmidas]

Most strongly redrawn seats in Devon...

Devon E  18.2-47.3-28.0  15.0-49.4-27.5  17.2-47.0-28.1
Tiv&Hon  13.4-46.7-29.1  16.8-44.4-28.2  13.4-47.9-29.5
Devon C  11.6-43.8-38.8  10.3-47.1-33.1  10.7-42.4-38.7
NewtonA 11.4-35.1-45.6  11.6-33.6-47.5  11.6-35.7-45.1
W&Torrid 10.5-42.3-36.9  11.4-38.8-38.9  11.0-42.1-37.0

That latter seat was a Tory gain in 2005...

[minionofmidas]

Cornwall

Cornwall N   12.5-35.4-42.3  12.7-33.6-44.4  11.4-33.7-46.6
Cornwall SE 10.5-35.0-46.8  10.9-36.8-44.3  11.4-34.0-47.2
StAust&Nq   13.8-34.8-47.3  14.6-32.2-46.0  11.7-39.3-40.9
Truro&Falm  19.0-31.7-41.0  15.5-34.1-44.3  15.4-32.3-45.5
Camb&Redr  28.8-25.6-35.9  30.0-24.7-36.9  29.0-25.6-37.1
St Ives         12.5-27.3-51.8  12.5-28.9-50.1  13.6-27.6-50.1

Some odd discrepancies ... just sum the parties' totals, especially Labour's, to see what I mean. The vote totals add up, though - must be some fairly strange turnout assumptions in one of the models.

[minionofmidas]

I live in the constituency of "Jarrow" now.

"Now"? Did you move or are you in the Gateshead bit tacked onto it?

I have a quote about Jarrow somewhere that might amuse you... I'll go look for it tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I live in the constituency of "Jarrow" now.

My Grandad's sister used to live in Jarrow.

[Harry Hayfield]

Jarrow (2005 Notional Result)

Labour 20,637 (58.83%)
Liberal Democrats 7,888 (22.48%)
Conservatives 4,485 (12.78%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,664 (4.74%)
Others 400 (1.14%)
Turnout: 53.30%
Labour WIN with a majority of 12,749 (36.35%)

[ukchris82]

No, I'm in a part of the constituency that has always been Jarrow - but I like to think I'm doing missionary work in this part of the world!

[minionofmidas]

Ah yes, John O'Farrell on the 1983 elections:

"(...) But it was not the loss of individual MPs that was so depressing, just the unrelenting barrage of little blue bars flashing up across the bottom of the screen, places that sounded like they really, really ought to be Labour: Con Gain Newcastle Central, Con Gain Newport West, Con Gain  Barrow-in-Furness, Con Gain Slough, Con Gain Clwyd South West, Con Gain Glanford and Sc**nthorpe, Con Gain Leicester East, Con Gain Bradford North, Con Gain Lewisham East, Con Gain Manchester Withington, Con Gain Darlington, and then finally one little red bar across the bottom of the screen - Labour Hold Jarrow.
Labour Hold Jarrow; oh rejoice, rejoice! Well done, Labour, another great triumph of socialism. (...) This was a caption that the BBC always saved for the most depressing moment on election nights - usually when Mrs Thatcher was waving out of a Tory central office window to the Young Conservatives who were pouring champagne over each other's heads. The editor of Election Special would say, 'OK, let's try to cheer up the Labour voters a little bit - put up Labour Hold Jarrow.' The implication is that we should try to look on the bright side because in the midst of another catastrophic election at least the Tories haven't taken bloody Jarrow. (...)"

[afleitch]

Ah yes, John O'Farrell on the 1983 elections:

"(...) But it was not the loss of individual MPs that was so depressing, just the unrelenting barrage of little blue bars flashing up across the bottom of the screen, places that sounded like they really, really ought to be Labour: Con Gain Newcastle Central, Con Gain Newport West, Con Gain  Barrow-in-Furness, Con Gain Slough, Con Gain Clwyd South West, Con Gain Glanford and Sc**nthorpe, Con Gain Leicester East, Con Gain Bradford North, Con Gain Lewisham East, Con Gain Manchester Withington, Con Gain Darlington, and then finally one little red bar across the bottom of the screen - Labour Hold Jarrow.
Labour Hold Jarrow; oh rejoice, rejoice! Well done, Labour, another great triumph of socialism. (...) This was a caption that the BBC always saved for the most depressing moment on election nights - usually when Mrs Thatcher was waving out of a Tory central office window to the Young Conservatives who were pouring champagne over each other's heads. The editor of Election Special would say, 'OK, let's try to cheer up the Labour voters a little bit - put up Labour Hold Jarrow.' The implication is that we should try to look on the bright side because in the midst of another catastrophic election at least the Tories haven't taken bloody Jarrow. (...)"

Good book and good gag writer but he's a wearer of those infamours 'tinted spectacles'

[minionofmidas]

Ah yes, John O'Farrell on the 1983 elections:

"(...) But it was not the loss of individual MPs that was so depressing, just the unrelenting barrage of little blue bars flashing up across the bottom of the screen, places that sounded like they really, really ought to be Labour: Con Gain Newcastle Central, Con Gain Newport West, Con Gain  Barrow-in-Furness, Con Gain Slough, Con Gain Clwyd South West, Con Gain Glanford and Sc**nthorpe, Con Gain Leicester East, Con Gain Bradford North, Con Gain Lewisham East, Con Gain Manchester Withington, Con Gain Darlington, and then finally one little red bar across the bottom of the screen - Labour Hold Jarrow.
Labour Hold Jarrow; oh rejoice, rejoice! Well done, Labour, another great triumph of socialism. (...) This was a caption that the BBC always saved for the most depressing moment on election nights - usually when Mrs Thatcher was waving out of a Tory central office window to the Young Conservatives who were pouring champagne over each other's heads. The editor of Election Special would say, 'OK, let's try to cheer up the Labour voters a little bit - put up Labour Hold Jarrow.' The implication is that we should try to look on the bright side because in the midst of another catastrophic election at least the Tories haven't taken bloody Jarrow. (...)"

Good book and good gag writer but he's a wearer of those infamours 'tinted spectacles'

Book's much better than some columns of his I've seen - happens when you're writing for a deadline I suppose.

Anyhow. Warwickshire.

Stratford/A 15.5-51.3-27.4  15.5-50.9-27.1  15.8-51.5-27.8
Warwick&L 44.7-34.4-15.9  46.0-32.8-16.0  45.8-33.1-16.4
Kenilworth  25.6-50.4-22.0  26.2-50.8-20.6  29.1-48.6-18.7
Rugby         43.5-38.3-15.0  40.3-41.2-17.1  40.0-40.4-16.9
Nuneaton   46.6-36.9-12.5  47.5-35.3-11.8  46.0-36.3-13.3
N Warwicks 47.4-32.1-13.5  47.1-32.7-13.9  47.9-32.5-13.0

The old story of the Commission creating a new safe Tory seat, helping Labour out in the surrounding seats (Warwick, Rugby, Nuneaton) in the process. Odd to see Baxter and Wells in agreement with Rallings&Thrasher at quite a distance (in Rugby). It'll certainly matter who is right here... it'll also certainly influence results that the guy who took the old Rugby & Kenilworth seat for the Tories in 2005 is chicken-running in the new Kenilworth & Southam, while Rugby Labour are running the guy who held the seat from 97-05. (Basically, Labour are sort-of-incumbents here as a result.)

[minionofmidas]

Birmingham. Leaving out the effectively unchanged Erdington and Sutton Coldfield seats. Edgbaston is hardly more redrawn, but has been included for reasons of marginality.
Selly Oak and Hall Green are effectively new seats - the new Selly Oak and the old Hall Green actually overlap more than either the two versions of Selly Oak or the two versions of Hall Green do. Sparkbrook & Small Heath is also abolished - and since that was the seat Respect (understandably) put the most ressources in and polled the most votes in, plus also some wild Labour-to-LD swings in 2005 in some seats, makes the notionals a bit more worthless than usual.

Edgbaston 43.1-39.1-12.8  43.1-39.0-13.1  43.4-38.0-13.6
Hall Green  42.4-14.9-26.5  40.1-16.2-27.6  38.0-17.8-28.5
Hodge Hill  46.9-10.6-29.9  48.9-10.6-24.5  50.8-11.0-25.6
Ladywood  52.6- 8.4-29.4  51.0-  9.0-30.5  50.0-  8.8-29.6
Northfield   50.3-30.4-12.3  49.6-29.5-12.9  49.9-29.1-13.3
Perry Barr  46.3-17.3-26.1  47.1-17.2-25.9  46.6-17.7-26.1
Selly Oak   46.8-29.7-17.3  48.2-29.8-18.1  48.4-28.8-18.3
Yardley      34.7-10.6-42.0  34.8-  9.8-43.7  36.0-  9.5-41.5

[minionofmidas]

Northamptonshire.

Warwickshire 1.1. 'Cept noone came up with a figure that put Labour ahead in Kettering - or the Tories ahead in Northampton South, so maybe it's Warwickshire 2.0.
Corby is unchanged.

Northampton N  38.7-29.7-26.9  39.5-28.9-26.5  39.0-29.9-26.5
Northampton S  41.6-37.8-13.6  42.7-37.1-15.7  42.7-39.0-12.8
S Northants       28.7-51.6-17.1  23.7-51.4-18.0  25.7-50.0-19.1
Daventry           27.8-53.0-14.5  29.6-53.0-14.5  30.0-52.8-13.6
Kettering           42.6-43.0-12.2  43.7-43.9-  9.6  42.8-43.0-11.9
Wellingborough 41.5-42.7-11.5  41.9-43.2-11.8  40.7-43.2-11.9

[minionofmidas]

Derbyshire... excludes three northeastern seats (internal changes only)

S Derbyshire 42.9-37.4-12.9  45.1-39.1-12.2  43.9-37.9-13.1
Derby S         53.2-19.8-24.2  49.8-18.5-25.4  55.3-18.9-21.3
Derby N         42.1-25.9-27.5  43.6-24.4-27.7  39.5-25.9-30.6
Mid Derbysh  34.6-47.2-16.0  35.5-45.2-15.7  37.4-44.3-13.5
Erewash        44.7-29.1-13.5  46.0-29.3-13.0  45.2-29.0-14.3
Amber Valley 46.5-33.9-12.4  46.8-33.9-12.1  47.7-33.3-12.0
Derby Dales   25.7-46.5-24.4  20.7-53.2-23.2  22.5-49.6-24.7
High Peak      41.1-37.3-19.4  42.9-34.1-20.6  41.4-36.3-20.1

These figures (Wells' especially) seem to assume that the LD surge in Derby was quite localised in the central parts of the city, ie the areas transferred from S to N under the boundary review.

[minionofmidas]

Leeds, Wakefield, Kirklees

I obviously could have excluded some seats here on account of being neither all that very far redrawn nor seriously marginal. But I didn't. Sue me.

Pudsey     45.4-33.7-18.2  42.1-35.8-19.8  45.2-34.3-17.9
Leeds NW 31.9-26.8-36.9  36.3-24.4-34.9  33.8-26.3-36.0
Leeds W   56.2-14.1-17.4  55.3-14.4-17.9  56.8-13.8-17.1
Leeds C    59.5-12.7-21.5  55.0-14.9-22.9  55.6-14.0-21.7
Leeds NE  45.7-30.2-21.7  46.0-29.9-21.3  45.2-30.0-22.2
Leeds E    59.8-21.6-17.2  60.0-22.2-15.0  59.8-21.1-16.9
Elmet&Ro 45.9-34.5-17.3  45.9-34.5-13.9  44.7-33.3-17.4
Morley&O 46.0-25.0-10.1  50.7-25.2-12.1  50.2-25.6-10.1
NorPonC   65.3-16.6-11.1  64.1-17.4-11.2  63.7-17.1-12.5
Hemswort 58.7-22.2-15.7  58.0-21.9-15.6  57.5-22.9-15.8
Wakefield 44.1-26.6-18.8  44.0-29.7-20.4  43.8-27.9-20.0
Dewsbury 40.6-31.7-13.7  40.8-29.2-16.2  42.1-31.3-13.4
Batley&Sp 45.3-31.7-15.4  44.6-30.5-14.6  45.2-30.3-14.6
Huddersf   46.4-21.1-24.1  46.2-21.0-23.8  46.7-21.3-23.2
Colne Val  35.4-32.9-24.5  35.8-32.7-24.5  35.7-32.7-24.4

[minionofmidas]

York

Central 48.8-22.9-20.2  49.8-23.1-19.5  49.2-23.5-20.1
Outer    27.0-36.3-36.7  26.5-33.9-38.7  24.2-34.1-38.6
Selby    42.8-47.2-10.0  44.5-46.2-  9.2  43.0-45.6-11.4

I would post all of North Yorkshire, but frankly the remaining figures just aren't very interesting. (Scarborough & Whitby is unchanged.) Given all these notionals' reliance on local voting, I wonder quite how fecked up these are by tactical voting here... whether the LDs really were ahead in the areas later assembled into York Outer we will probably never know.

[minionofmidas]

Merseyside Sefton and Knowsley...
Southport is unchanged, the Liverpool and St Helens seats are not sufficiently withdrawn to merit inclusion given their rock-solid status. Even though they aren't quite as rock-solid than  two seats that have been included.

Bootle      71.1- 7.4 -16.6  69.3- 8.0 -17.3  69.5- 7.8 -17.3
Sefton C  45.6-33.6-19.2  42.2-36.6-19.5  46.2-32.9-18.2
Knowsley 71.8-11.2-13.8  76.6- 7.8 -12.9  73.9-11.1-13.3