FL-Insider Advantage Poll: Romney leading Giuliani by 5

[Democratic Hawk]

Romney 24
Giuliani 19
McCain 18
Huckabee 12
Paul 7

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[© tweed]

wtf happens if McCain ends up third? 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

what if that mormon wins florida? Oh God! I may be screwed.

[Reaganfan]

wtf happens if McCain ends up third? 

Unsure. I don't think Florida will be as big as Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina....and if it is very close between three or even four candidates...it may not matter as much. McCain has built up a large amount of support for February 5th, and even though I understand how fast things can change, I don't think Rudy will reclaim his unbelieveable Feb 5th strategy. Romney is becoming a pest, but if it came down to Romney, McCain and Giuliani...I think McCain would win.

[Democratic Hawk]

Can't seem to find any written analysis but I've tuned into Towery and he reports:

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/

Among those who have already voted (25 to 30 per cent of voters, 25% of survey):

Romney 26%
McCain 20%
Giuliani 19%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 4%
Other 7%

Among likely voters yet to vote (75% of survey):

Romney 23%
Giuliani 19%
McCain 18%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 8%
Other 4%
Undecided 17%

[they don't love you like i love you]

If anyone besides Giuliani wins Florida, you are screwed, and probably are even if he does win it.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thompson's withdrawal could benefit Romney rather than McCain and Giuliani, who I suspect are battling for the moderate GOP vote

Given Huckabee is fading in FL and has, more or less, quit the state, Mitt may well be the major beneficiary of Fred's withdrawal

Dave

[Mr. Morden]

So we now have four polls of Florida taken post-SC (five if you count ARG, but I don't).  If you average together the results of those four polls, I think you get:

McCain 22%
Romney 22%
Giuliani 20%
Huckabee 14%

Granted, two of the four polls include Thompson, and the other two don't.  But even if you just averaged the two without Thompson, I think the results would be pretty much the same.

[Person Man]

Looks like McCain could be phucked.

[Reaganfan]

Looks like McCain could be phucked.

LOL yeah...just like he was in Michigan, right?

[Person Man]

Looks like McCain could be phucked.

LOL yeah...just like he was in Michigan, right?

Well, this is one more strike against him.  He only won one state by three points.

[12th Doctor]

Looks like McCain could be phucked.

LOL yeah...just like he was in Michigan, right?

Well, this is one more strike against him.  He only won one state by three points.

A state that he wasn't predicted to have much of a chance in.

[Verily]

Looks like McCain could be phucked.

LOL yeah...just like he was in Michigan, right?

Well, this is one more strike against him.  He only won one state by three points.

A state that he wasn't predicted to have much of a chance in.

Err... what? The last time McCain was competitive nationally, last winter, he led in all of the South Carolina polls.

[Gustaf]

wtf happens if McCain ends up third? 

´

As long as it's Romney winning McCain's actual position doesn't matter much. The reason is that if Romney wins Guliani is out and most of his support would go to McCain. It would then be a McCain v Romney race on Feb 5. In that race McCain, regardless of how badly he did and how well Romney did in Florida, still takes Arizona, most of New England, New York and New Jersey. That either makes him the frontrunner or makes him the nominee. The real issue for McCain would be a Guliani win, imo.

[CultureKing]

wtf happens if McCain ends up third? 

´

As long as it's Romney winning McCain's actual position doesn't matter much. The reason is that if Romney wins Guliani is out and most of his support would go to McCain. It would then be a McCain v Romney race on Feb 5. In that race McCain, regardless of how badly he did and how well Romney did in Florida, still takes Arizona, most of New England, New York and New Jersey. That either makes him the frontrunner or makes him the nominee. The real issue for McCain would be a Guliani win, imo.

Even if Romney can't win the NY, NJ or AZ if he simply takes California I think that would make him the frontrunner. Likely Mitt will do well in the mountain states and states that are having caucuses. By the way what is the plural for caucus? Its been bothering me.

[Aizen]

This is a big state. If McCain loses to Romney here... Romney could very well be the GOP nominee. Go Romney!

[Person Man]

and would Guiliani neccesiarly go to Mc.