If Romney Wins Florida What Happens Next In The GOP Race?

[Lincoln Republican]

If Mitt Romney defeats John McCain and Rudy Giuliani in Florida, what effect does this have on the rest of the GOP race?

Please discuss.

[Smid]

I think it would make him competitive against McCain in California, and maybe even in some of the n-e states.

[Lincoln Republican]

Thank you for your comments, Smid.

Welcome to the forum.

[exopolitician]

If Romney wins Florida, hes got massive momentum going into California. If he then wins California....then McCain is going to be suffering and Romney might as well have the nomination in the bag.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

If Romney wins Florida, hes got massive momentum going into California. If he then wins California....then McCain is going to be suffering and Romney might as well have the nomination in the bag.

And that's my prediction.

But what about Hawaii!!!    (I really am curious about it though).

[MarkWarner08]

Romney would probably win in California and might also do well in New York and New Jersey,

[exopolitician]

If Romney wins Florida, hes got massive momentum going into California. If he then wins California....then McCain is going to be suffering and Romney might as well have the nomination in the bag.

And that's my prediction.

But what about Hawaii!!!    (I really am curious about it though).

Isnt Romney doing very well there? He'll probably win it with Paul as his only opponent for the state.

[Padfoot]

If Romney wins Florida I find it very hard to believe McCain could win the nomination.  Romney's just got too much money for McCain to compete on Super Tuesday after a loss.  Right now, a win in Florida clinches in for either McCain or Romney.  If Giuliani or Huckabee were to win I'd wager there will be a brokered convention.  Giuliani has to win to stay relevant and that seems unlikely at this point.  I think Huckabee could still be relevant if he places second but I don't see that happening either.

[Eraserhead]

If Romney wins, Super Tuesday will be a real dog fight. If McCain wins, he will probably go on to seal the deal on Super Tuesday.

I'm pulling for a victory from Willard.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

As many of you have said, if Romney wins Florida he'll get big momentum from his victory in the Sunshine State and could possibly win California. If he wins California, Romney is really back in the race. And he'll probably come out on top, thanks to being a mega-rich Mormon . If Romney wins Florida, he could also make New York and New Jersey come into play.

[agcatter]

If Romney wins Florida, it eliminates Giuliani.  I think McCain then wins the winner take all delegate contests of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut on Feb 5th as those are more moderate type Republican states.  He wins all those delegates.  McCain also wins the winner take all Arizona primary the same day.  Delegates are divided in a more complicated formula in delegate rich Illinois.  Massachusettes goes to Romney, Deleware probably to McCain.  Missouri?  Who knows.  I could see that going either way.  California will be a real battle.  Independents can vote there which obviously helps McCain.

It will be very close in delegates between the two survivors after Feb 5th.  Texas and Ohio then become very big.

[cp]

It's tempting to say that Florida will change everything. It will certainly clear up the race a little bit, either by eliminating candidates or establishing a frontrunner/challenger. A Romney win would probably do the following:

- Destroy Giuliani's campaign completely.

- Make Huckabee's job easier, as he can criticize Romney more easily than he can McCain. That said, it won't revive his stagnant campaign, bring him money, or give him a bounce in the polls. If he does really badly he might be teetering on the edge of destruction.

- Send a shock through the McCain campaign. McCain's in a kind of 'crossed-fingers' mode right now. The win in NH and SC gave him the kind of life his campaign has lacked for so long, but it didn't eliminate doubts about his palatability among the Republican electorate. Losing Florida would reinforce those doubts and pretty much destroy his momentum going into super tuesday.

- Give Romney the chance to make a sprint for the finish. With the kind of cash he has, the national focus of his campaign in the earlier stages, and the bounce off of a win, he would be in a position to swamp the other candidates and all but guarentee his nomination on super tuesday. It would still be hard, though, as the other candidates will be tearing him to pieces in the process.

Oh, and it hands the White House to the Democrats

[Adlai Stevenson]

It's tempting to say that Florida will change everything. It will certainly clear up the race a little bit, either by eliminating candidates or establishing a frontrunner/challenger. A Romney win would probably do the following:

- Destroy Giuliani's campaign completely.

- Make Huckabee's job easier, as he can criticize Romney more easily than he can McCain. That said, it won't revive his stagnant campaign, bring him money, or give him a bounce in the polls. If he does really badly he might be teetering on the edge of destruction.

- Send a shock through the McCain campaign. McCain's in a kind of 'crossed-fingers' mode right now. The win in NH and SC gave him the kind of life his campaign has lacked for so long, but it didn't eliminate doubts about his palatability among the Republican electorate. Losing Florida would reinforce those doubts and pretty much destroy his momentum going into super tuesday.

- Give Romney the chance to make a sprint for the finish. With the kind of cash he has, the national focus of his campaign in the earlier stages, and the bounce off of a win, he would be in a position to swamp the other candidates and all but guarentee his nomination on super tuesday. It would still be hard, though, as the other candidates will be tearing him to pieces in the process.

Oh, and it hands the White House to the Democrats

Romney for President!  It would be a history-making election if Romney was the GOP nominee with Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison on the ticket against either Obama, Clinton with Richardson as VP. 

[Smid]

If either McCain or Romney win Florida, it pretty much will seal the deal for them. If Huckabee wins Florida, it keeps him in the race and will probably benefit Romney by slowing McCain. If Giuliani wins Florida, he'll obviously also stay in, but I can't see him winning so that point's moot.

Thank you for your comments, Smid.

Welcome to the forum.

Thank you for your warm welcome.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If Romney wins, Giuliani probably (and maybe Huckabee) will back out and endorse McCain.  They would much rather see McCain win than Romney.

I think it's pretty likely in any case that this race will continue at least through Feb 5.

[socaldem]

I don't believe any of the candidates are going to give up after losing Florida.  Each has good reason to continue fighting on Super Tuesday.

The Florida winner will be McCain or Romney.  Romney seemed to have been gaining momentum and I think he was in the lead--that is until the endorsements of Senator Mel Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist entered the picture.  Of course, those two are on the moderate end of the GOP spectrum (well, Martinez is quite conservative but too moderate for the base on immigration, a key issue for Romney supporters).

In any case, I expect Romney and McCain to be very close to each other and a virtual tie in votes (even as one will get all the delegates) would allow the loser to argue that the loss can be easily avenged with some Super Tuesday victories.

Giuliani should probably come in third and Huckabee a close fourth.

Giuliani is the only one that I could see dropping out after Florida.  If he comes in a close third, I think that its unlikely.  A distant third would be hard to explain.  Still, he will have a strong chance at winning New York and possibly New Jersey and Connecticut--especially, in my opinion, if Romney wins Florida and has a nationwide surge that will cut into McCain's numbers in those states.

Huckabee has been dramatically lowering Florida expectations and he has already been focusing on the super tuesday southern primaries--Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee--all of which I expect him to win.  Huckabee could also very well come out on top in Oklahoma and Kansas.  I don't expect his showing in Florida to have that much of an effect on his performance in those heavily evangelical states.

Romney is getting close in California.  He's going to win Massachusetts, Utah, and Colorado and may also be able to pull in New Mexico.  He needs to also focus on the Midwest where I expect he may be able to replicate his Michigan magic in Minnesota and Illinois.  He could also make a run for Missouri and Kansas, though, I imagine he may just cut into McCain's numbers in those states, allowing Huckabee to eek out victories.

In any case, I think the race will continue to be extremely muddled, though a Romney win would make it more wild.

That said, even if McCain loses, he has the advantage of having a base of support in all regions whereas Romney has trouble getting support in the South outside of Florida, which really isnt all that Southern.

[jacob_101]

If Giuliani places 4th or worse.....think he will drop out?
If Romney wins FL, I think it becomes a regional GOP race.  Romney strong in the West, McCain strong in the NE (and somewhat in the south and midwest), and Huckabee strong in the south (and maybe midwest).  Basically if Romney wins FL, I don't think anyone will get enough delegates.
If McCain wins FL, I think that will give him the momentum to hold California and carry all the NE states.  Maybe Huck would drop out and endorse McCain, therefore giving him the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney edges out McCain for the win in FL -> Giuliani drops out -> McCain gets most of Giuliani's old supporters, which offsets Romney's momentum from the FL win -> McCain still the favorite, but Romney has a chance.

[J. J.]

People start saying "Mitt who?"