SC PrimD: Mason-Dixon: Obama leads by 8

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: South Carolina President by Mason-Dixon on 2008-01-23

Summary:

Obama:	38%
Clinton:	30%
Edwards:	19%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

IF the margin is 7-10% a 13% undecided is something to worry about. In both NV and NH Clinton did well with last minute deciders.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Not good for Barack. If he were to lose SC, his campaign is over.

[Eraserhead]

Why doesn't Mason-Dixon know how to poll races with black candidates in them?

[© tweed]

I just think everyone's turnout model was a little off.  blacks comprised about 8-10% more of the Dem primary electorate this year than in 2004.  That combined with a slightly better-than-expected showing for Edwards among whites killed the pre-election polls.

[Eraserhead]

I just think everyone's turnout model was a little off.  blacks comprised about 8-10% more of the Dem primary electorate this year than in 2004.  That combined with a slightly better-than-expected showing for Edwards among whites killed the pre-election polls.

Just seems like a bit of a pattern with them. TN in '06, IA this year, etc.

[Mr. Morden]

As I said in another thread, the poll average for all the polls for SC(D) was off by just as much as (if not more than) the poll average for NH(D).  But in one case it underestimated Clinton, and in the other case it underestimated Obama.  So the polls are basically 0-2 in the Dem. primaries (as opposed to caucuses) this year.  Are the polls going to be this far off on Super Tuesday?  If so, I guess we really have no way of meaningfully tracking the race.