Republican primary so far
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RJ
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« on: January 27, 2008, 11:30:15 AM »

Let me just start by saying I think the Democratic primary is pretty clear. It's Clinton as a favorite with Obama making headway. I think after Super Tuesday she'll pull away. It may still be interesting but Obama is still pretty much an underdog. Richardson and Edwards are alsorans.

What I want to know is what happened to GuillianiHuh I haven't seen a candidate on the national stage with an advantage like the one he had be this much of a non factor. He performed very poorly in the early states and now is polling really bad in Florida? I thought he had control of many of the bigger states heading into Super Tuesday.

Who is going to win the GOP nomination? McCain? Romney? I'll just start by saying Huckabee may make it interesting bur won't win. Freddy's already pulled out(talk about a non factor).  I'm sure these questions have been tossed around on this board but no one, not even the press, is talking about Rudy. That's what I'm mainly concerned about.

Feel free to give some theories but try not to say anything too opinionated here such as "candidate X just plain sucks" or "candidate Y can't get their ____ together." I never anticipated the bizzare events of this Republican nomination process and am just curious why these things are happening.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2008, 12:16:59 PM »

I think I will post a Romney v. Clinton Map now.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2008, 10:11:01 PM »

Giuliani's support was always soft.  His major selling point was his electability and his major issue is the war on terror.  Well his electability eventually went to crap as people found out more about him and the economy has been slowing creeping up as the biggest issue on people's minds.

Also, people in the early voting states began finding out more about his messy personal life and liberal social record.  That didn't fly well in places like Iowa and South Carolina so he abandoned them.  He abandoned NH because McCain was so strong there and he abandoned MI and NV because Romney was favored to win.  Basically he has fled from every challenge.  What kind of message does that send?  Why should the GOP nominate someone who is going to abandon any race in which he has to fight an uphill battle to win.  The GE is going to be one of the biggest uphill battles the GOP has faced in a while and Giuliani is flinching at the slightest challenge from his opponents. 

His strategy of holding out for Florida may have worked if he had actually made an effort in some of the earlier states.  By leaving the early states he basically let Ron Paul make a fool of him.  The media ignored him because he was no where to be found.  Maybe if he had stuck around and hung on with some 10-15% of the vote in the early states people would still be talking about him.  Instead he didn't make it out of the single digits and he was pushed onto the background by the media because the other candidates made for a better story.

Basically, Giuliani's support was weak to begin with and then when it started to slip he didn't fight for it.  He just let it keep slipping and eventually that spilled over into the Super Tuesday states.  Maybe if he had actually stayed on the campaign trail instead of holing up in his Florida bunker that wouldn't have happened.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2008, 02:14:24 PM »

Rudy was forced into his Florida or bust strategy, and that should have been an indicator that his foundation was made of sand, and, therefore, wasn't much of a sure-thing to be the nominee and shouldn't have ever been viewed as a serious frontrunner, even when the polls said he was.  Rudy abandoned Iowa because his flaws on social issues were an impediment there, but those people in Iowa are actual Republican voters and there are many others just like them in other states that Rudy would need to compete in. Rudy actually competed in NH. He was here a ton. He just never was able to compete with Romney and McCain for affection, and, again, Romney and McCain were going to be on the ballot in other states, too.  All of these warning signs were there. This was quite predictable.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2008, 05:53:01 PM »

Average % Share for GOP candidates (caucuses and primaries combined)

Guiliani 4.23%
Huckabee 19.98%
Hunter 0.71%
McCain 25.40%
Paul 8.35%
Romney 32.50%
Thompson 8.42%
None 0.41%
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2008, 11:17:48 PM »

Average % Share for GOP candidates (caucuses and primaries combined)

Guiliani 4.23%
Huckabee 19.98%
Hunter 0.71%
McCain 25.40%
Paul 8.35%
Romney 32.50%
Thompson 8.42%
None 0.41%

so in conclusion Rudy will end up not only with fewer delegates than Ron Paul, but with fewer votes as well!
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perdedor
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2008, 08:41:11 PM »

Let me just start by saying I think the Democratic primary is pretty clear. It's Clinton as a favorite with Obama making headway. I think after Super Tuesday she'll pull away. It may still be interesting but Obama is still pretty much an underdog. Richardson and Edwards are alsorans.

What I want to know is what happened to Guilliani
Huh I haven't seen a candidate on the national stage with an advantage like the one he had be this much of a non factor. He performed very poorly in the early states and now is polling really bad in Florida? I thought he had control of many of the bigger states heading into Super Tuesday.

Who is going to win the GOP nomination? McCain? Romney? I'll just start by saying Huckabee may make it interesting bur won't win. Freddy's already pulled out(talk about a non factor).  I'm sure these questions have been tossed around on this board but no one, not even the press, is talking about Rudy. That's what I'm mainly concerned about.

Feel free to give some theories but try not to say anything too opinionated here such as "candidate X just plain sucks" or "candidate Y can't get their ____ together." I never anticipated the bizzare events of this Republican nomination process and am just curious why these things are happening.

There was never a candidate name Guilliani. Rudy G-I-U-L-I-A-N-I was done in by a horrific strategy that involved blowing off all of the states prior to Florida.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2008, 10:15:38 AM »

Let me just start by saying I think the Democratic primary is pretty clear. It's Clinton as a favorite with Obama making headway. I think after Super Tuesday she'll pull away. It may still be interesting but Obama is still pretty much an underdog. Richardson and Edwards are alsorans.

What I want to know is what happened to Guilliani
Huh I haven't seen a candidate on the national stage with an advantage like the one he had be this much of a non factor. He performed very poorly in the early states and now is polling really bad in Florida? I thought he had control of many of the bigger states heading into Super Tuesday.

Who is going to win the GOP nomination? McCain? Romney? I'll just start by saying Huckabee may make it interesting bur won't win. Freddy's already pulled out(talk about a non factor).  I'm sure these questions have been tossed around on this board but no one, not even the press, is talking about Rudy. That's what I'm mainly concerned about.

Feel free to give some theories but try not to say anything too opinionated here such as "candidate X just plain sucks" or "candidate Y can't get their ____ together." I never anticipated the bizzare events of this Republican nomination process and am just curious why these things are happening.

There was never a candidate name Guilliani. Rudy G-I-U-L-I-A-N-I was done in by a horrific strategy that involved blowing off all of the states prior to Florida.

Giuliani was done in by a horrific campaign that forced him to desert the early states.
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M
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2008, 11:09:06 AM »

Let me just start by saying I think the Democratic primary is pretty clear. It's Clinton as a favorite with Obama making headway. I think after Super Tuesday she'll pull away. It may still be interesting but Obama is still pretty much an underdog. Richardson and Edwards are alsorans.

What I want to know is what happened to Guilliani
Huh I haven't seen a candidate on the national stage with an advantage like the one he had be this much of a non factor. He performed very poorly in the early states and now is polling really bad in Florida? I thought he had control of many of the bigger states heading into Super Tuesday.

Who is going to win the GOP nomination? McCain? Romney? I'll just start by saying Huckabee may make it interesting bur won't win. Freddy's already pulled out(talk about a non factor).  I'm sure these questions have been tossed around on this board but no one, not even the press, is talking about Rudy. That's what I'm mainly concerned about.

Feel free to give some theories but try not to say anything too opinionated here such as "candidate X just plain sucks" or "candidate Y can't get their ____ together." I never anticipated the bizzare events of this Republican nomination process and am just curious why these things are happening.

There was never a candidate name Guilliani. Rudy G-I-U-L-I-A-N-I was done in by a horrific strategy that involved blowing off all of the states prior to Florida.

Giuliani was done in by a horrific campaign that forced him to desert the early states.

Poor Rudy. Sad
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Hammy
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« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2008, 12:04:05 PM »

It's Clinton as a favorite with Obama making headway. I think after Super Tuesday she'll pull away.

lol
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