Delegate Selection: Florida (R, D)

[Erc]

Florida: January 29, 2008

Republican Primary

Going into this race:
Romney: 81
McCain: 32
Huckabee: 27
Paul: 3

(these numbers include Hunter's endorsement of Huckabee, and a reallocation of Thompson supporters in Iowa, but not in Wyoming).

Overview:
57 Delegates [RNC Sanctioned]
At-Large, Winner-Take All


The winner of Tuesday's primary will win all 57 delegates to the convention.  The primary is closed, so only registered Republicans may participate.  This is the simplest of the Republican primaries so far.

Prior to the RNC sanctions, it had been winner-take-all by district and At-Large, with 75 District delegates and 36 At-Large delegates (+ unpledged 3 party leaders)



On the Democratic side, 185 delegates were to be awarded--and may still be if Clinton has her way.  They would have been allocated in the usual manner (121 by district, 64 At-Large, proportionally, 15% cutoff). In the meantime, however, Florida has 0 delegates.

[Erc]

McCain, by winning the FL primary, wins all 57 of Florida's delegates.

New Delegate Count:

McCain: 89
Romney: 81
Huckabee: 27
Paul: 3


McCain takes the lead in delegates...which he will keep permanently barring superb Romney organization in Maine (and even then, only for 48 hours).

[Joe Biden 2020]

CNN has McCain at 97 and Romney at 74.  What's the disparity?

[Erc]

CNN has McCain at 97 and Romney at 74.  What's the disparity?

Main reasons:

1) "Party Leader" delegates...I haven't awarded them to any candidate, while CNN (in some counts) has.  (this subtracts 2 from McCain and 7 from Romney)

2) I gave Romney all of the delegates from Nevada, figuring that his majority win would allow him to dominate the State Convention and impose a unit rule (with the possible exception of one delegate in CD 2).  (this subtracts 4 from McCain and adds 13 to Romney)

3) I used a different system for counting Michigan delegates, awarding 2 per CD [which I think is the only sane system, should Michigan actually be penalized at the Convention].  They just took the regular delegation, chopped each candidate's numbers in half, and rounded--not really the best way to do it.  (Romney +2, McCain -1).