The Breakup of the Union?

[Keystone Phil]

I'm doing a lot of reading on the history of "the Union" as in the United Kingdom and was left wondering if a complete breakup of the UK would eventually happen.

Recently, we have heard a lot about independence movements in Scotland. I don't know if full Scottish independence is even a remote possibility but let's assume it happens. How long are we talking until it finally occurs? Would Wales and Northern Ireland follow? If so, how long until they are fully independent?

Basically, how likely is it and how long would it take?

[Хahar 🤔]

In a couple of centuries, the United Kingdom will be no more.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

In a couple of centuries, the United Kingdom will be no more.

It's obvious by Xahar's signature that you can trust him in all matters.

[Keystone Phil]

In a couple of centuries, the United Kingdom will be no more.

I meant as in maybe happening within this century.  

[Хahar 🤔]

In a couple of centuries, the United Kingdom will be no more.

It's obvious by Xahar's signature that you can trust him in all matters.

Somehow, your signature doesn't reassure me.

In a couple of centuries, the United Kingdom will be no more.

I meant as in maybe happening within this century. 

Not likely. It's just too drastic, without a major upheaval like a war.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

In a couple of centuries, the United Kingdom will be no more.

It's obvious by Xahar's signature that you can trust him in all matters.

Somehow, your signature does't reassure me.

Haha very true, but I really don't think we can tell the future regarding this matter.

[Verily]

I'm doing a lot of reading on the history of "the Union" as in the United Kingdom and was left wondering if a complete breakup of the UK would eventually happen.

Recently, we have heard a lot about independence movements in Scotland. I don't know if full Scottish independence is even a remote possibility but let's assume it happens. How long are we talking until it finally occurs? Would Wales and Northern Ireland follow? If so, how long until they are fully independent?

Basically, how likely is it and how long would it take?

IMO, Scottish independence happens either within the next decade or never. The SNP is sort of in do-or-die mode with the new Scottish Parliament. They must greatly expand their support, primarily at the expense of Labour, or they'll be forever politically marginalized.

Welsh independence might gain a boost if there is ever a deeply unpopular economically right-wing government such as Thatcher again (especially if they feel England is pushing the government on them), and it would desperately need a boost for independence to be seriously considered.

Demographic trends in Northern Ireland suggest possible Catholic majorities within half a century, so it's possible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People need to avoid confusing support for the SNP or (and especially!) Plaid and sentimental support for the idea of independence for actually supporting the real thing.

Anyways, the old unitary state that we knew and loathed is dead, even if a lot of people (some of them very important) don't get that yet. At some point within the next five, ten, twenty years we will probably reach a point at which its corpse is finally buried. Breakup is really only possible if this doesn't happen, if reality doesn't dawn in Westminster and (even more importantly in some ways) Whitehall.

[Јas]

I'm doing a lot of reading on the history of "the Union" as in the United Kingdom and was left wondering if a complete breakup of the UK would eventually happen.

Recently, we have heard a lot about independence movements in Scotland. I don't know if full Scottish independence is even a remote possibility but let's assume it happens. How long are we talking until it finally occurs? Would Wales and Northern Ireland follow? If so, how long until they are fully independent?

Basically, how likely is it and how long would it take?

Northern Irish independence is not an option advocated by any credible group. The current set-up (i.e. enforced powersharing with devolved powers within the overall UK jurisdiction) is likely to remain for some time. Demographically, it's entirely possible (and probably likely) that nationalists may outnumber unionists in the medium to long term (20-50 years) but even then I doubt we'd see a united Ireland very quickly thereafter - though it is a possibility. Even if Scotland, Wales, Cornwall and Berwick-upon-Tweed became fully independent states, Northern Irish independence would still be extemely unlikely.

Scottish independence is a possibility but the odds are probably againat it in the short to medium term. I suspect the numbers polling in favour of independence are quite soft, at the moment anyway.

Barring remarkably changed circumstances, I don't think there will be any credible efforts for Welsh independence in the foreseeable future.

[afleitch]

The United Kingdom will have to federalise or die and Al is right in saying politicians need to accept not only the new status quo but the need for continued decentralisation and devolution. Indepedence is another issue entirely and we can only really guage support or opposition to it if it was put to a vote (rather than hypotheticals) It all depends what's on the table. On a personal level, and an increasing number of Tories agree with me on this (and Labour have came round to it too) the only alternative to independence is further and faster devolution. I wish for Scotland to have complete control over its own taxation and finance. Complete and total devolution of everything but defence, foreign policy and some aspects of social security.

However accelerated devolution may make the Union irrelevant over time. If that's what needs to happen, then it will happen gradually.

[Keystone Phil]

My professor (a socialist originally from Chipping Sodbury just so you can have some general information about the guy) said it definitley not an option when I asked this question in class. He said the entrenched interests (Labour) would never allow it because of they could never survive in England alone. I don't know why I didn't think of that before.

Anyway, thank you to the well respected Brits for their opinion. I personally believe in independence for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland regardless of how impractical the idea may seem. I like more of a single national identity (for example, I'd take pride in being English and not really British though the opposite seems to be the case for the English from what I've studied).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My professor (a socialist originally from Chipping Sodbury

Lol! Poor fellow!

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That's a myth actually (even in 2005 Labour won the most seats in England) though one that's been around for ages. It would certainly be harder for Labour to win elections in just England than in Great Britain, but not impossible.

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The concept of drawing up states based on the myth of a single national identity is, IMO at least, one of the worst ideas to come out of the 19th century.

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The question of English "national identity" is one of the most confused and complicated issues out there.

[Keystone Phil]

The question of English "national identity" is one of the most confused and complicated issues out there.

I've been made aware of that over the past few days. That's what we're covering now.

[Јas]

Anyway, thank you to the well respected Brits for their opinion. I personally believe in independence for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland regardless of how impractical the idea may seem. I like more of a single national identity (for example, I'd take pride in being English and not really British though the opposite seems to be the case for the English from what I've studied).

The point being that in Northern Ireland, nobody sees themselves as having a 'Northern Irish' identity - at least not primarily. They, in the overwhelming majority, see themselves as 'British' and/or 'Irish' and want to be part of Britain or Ireland. These senses of identity are fiercely strong and divide the society both politically and culturally in many ways. A single national identity cannot be imposed on them, and the belief on both sides that this can be achieved on the other community has been a hugely contributing factor to NI's problems for many years.

BTW, on the English and their sense of national identity, I'd recommend taking a look at The English by Jeremy Paxman. (I really enjoyed The Political Animal as well.)

[Keystone Phil]

Anyway, thank you to the well respected Brits for their opinion. I personally believe in independence for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland regardless of how impractical the idea may seem. I like more of a single national identity (for example, I'd take pride in being English and not really British though the opposite seems to be the case for the English from what I've studied).

The point being that in Northern Ireland, nobody sees themselves as having a 'Northern Irish' identity - at least not primarily.

Well, yeah, I should have noted the difference with Northern Ireland. I don't think they'd choose independence for the sake of being "Northern Irish." I was just wondering if they'd vote to join the other 26 counties (not happening, I know) and when that fails, they'd be independent (seeing as a union with just England probably wouldn't work, I'd guess).

[Јas]

Anyway, thank you to the well respected Brits for their opinion. I personally believe in independence for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland regardless of how impractical the idea may seem. I like more of a single national identity (for example, I'd take pride in being English and not really British though the opposite seems to be the case for the English from what I've studied).

The point being that in Northern Ireland, nobody sees themselves as having a 'Northern Irish' identity - at least not primarily.

Well, yeah, I should have noted the difference with Northern Ireland. I don't think they'd choose independence for the sake of being "Northern Irish." I was just wondering if they'd vote to join the other 26 counties (not happening, I know) and when that fails, they'd be independent (seeing as a union with just England probably wouldn't work, I'd guess).

Not saying that you're right or wrong, but why do feel a union with England alone wouldn't work?

[Keystone Phil]

Anyway, thank you to the well respected Brits for their opinion. I personally believe in independence for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland regardless of how impractical the idea may seem. I like more of a single national identity (for example, I'd take pride in being English and not really British though the opposite seems to be the case for the English from what I've studied).

The point being that in Northern Ireland, nobody sees themselves as having a 'Northern Irish' identity - at least not primarily.

Well, yeah, I should have noted the difference with Northern Ireland. I don't think they'd choose independence for the sake of being "Northern Irish." I was just wondering if they'd vote to join the other 26 counties (not happening, I know) and when that fails, they'd be independent (seeing as a union with just England probably wouldn't work, I'd guess).

Not saying that you're right or wrong, but why do feel a union with England alone wouldn't work?

As in a union between Northern Ireland and just England?

I guess because with Scottish and Welsh independence, there would probably be a return to violence in Northern Ireland with the Catholics becoming even more ardent about rejoining the Republic. I guess it would be either that or complete seperation from the crown to avoid further problems.

I understand that what I am saying is almost completely unfounded but they're just general scenarios that I think up.

[Јas]

As in a union between Northern Ireland and just England?

I guess because with Scottish and Welsh independence, there would probably be a return to violence in Northern Ireland with the Catholics becoming even more ardent about rejoining the Republic. I guess it would be either that or complete seperation from the crown to avoid further problems.

I understand that what I am saying is almost completely unfounded but they're just general scenarios that I think up.

It's an interesting argument. Certainly independence for Scotland and/or Wales would spur nationalist sentiment - though I suppose it would depend how their independence cam about as to how exactly it would effect things in NI.

I think though it's important to note though that the underlying cause of the IRA's resurgence from 1969 on wasn't a renewed sense of nationalism, it was the (very real) sense of injustice and unfair treatment as citizens. The belief was that within a united Ireland, they would be part of a more just society (and again, at the time, I would agree with that belief - though obviously strenuously disagreeing with their means of action).

I don't think that independence for Scotland or Wales would rally nationalist motivations for violent action even if there wasn't a strong prospect of a united ireland on the horizon. The sense of social injustice based on identity as Nationalist or Catholic is very largely gone. Without that, any effort to achieve change through violent means will almost certainly fall on deaf ears (of course, there remain very small groups who are willing to use violence to promote their agendas but crucially they lack any real support within either community and so can't be anywhere nearly as effective as the IRA or loyalist paramilitaries were at the height of the violence).

BTW, the British monarchy is of no real concern to the Nationalist community who don't really give any credence to that institution anyway. It's not a real issue and Nationalists really aren't concerned whether or not Britain retains a king or queen. Certainly, they'd rather that an oath of allegiance to the monarch wasn't required to take seats in Westminster - but that's another matter.
As an aside, there is the possibility though that in the future elections to the Presidency of Ireland (currently held by Mary McAleese, herself Northern Irish) could see Northern Irish persons voting in them. Obviously though Unionist representatives are not too keen on this idea.

[afleitch]

The concept of drawing up states based on the myth of a single national identity is, IMO at least, one of the worst ideas to come out of the 19th century.

In Europe yes, but not also so within the UK. An (almost) unified Irish state, based on 'Irishness' can be considered to be a construct but not Scotland or England. Scotland has been a territorially and legally continuous state from the 1000's.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I agree with Verily that Socttish independence will happen by say 2020 or never.

The issue is that actual "independence" as opposed to autonomy is not anywhere close to a majority sentiment. I personally think Wales is the least likely to break away, simply because it's been linked for so long. I think the Welsh have actually managed to find the balance, there's the reemergence of the Welsh language (which was almost dead 25 years ago) - there's a greater appreciation within Wales of Welsh history and culture, they have their own assembly, but still remain under the umbrella of the UK. 

As mentioned I think N.Ireland would be the most problematic, I think it either stays as it is, or gets absorbed back into the Republic.

I'm curious as to why you are so interested in it?

The SNP basically still have bees in their bonnets from centuries ago, but the real "growth" in Scottish nationalism came about during the 1980s when Thatcher used Soctland as her personal economic guinea pig. I don't think the majority of people mind being part of the Union, it doesn't have to affect their patriotism, but they don't like being treated like garbage by London.... but that argument could easily be said for any part of the North of England too.

[Democratic Hawk]

The United Kingdom will have to federalise or die and Al is right in saying politicians need to accept not only the new status quo but the need for continued decentralisation and devolution

I'd only support federalism if it was to the English Regions . England is simply too populous and too diverse politically to justify one, indivisible English Parliament

The very thought of it is repellent enough let alone it's actuality

Furthermore, I've always primarily identified myself as British, not English. Of course, I do strongly identify with my home region

Dave

[Keystone Phil]

I'm curious as to why you are so interested in it?

I'm taking a British Politics course and have always been interested in British politics. 

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm curious as to why you are so interested in it?

I'm taking a British Politics course and have always been interested in British politics. 

I only ever did one American module as part of my Government and Public Policy degree, which I never finished (though I later graduated in psychology) and my chosen assignment was this:

"American political parties are coalitions of geographical and economic interests: Hence they cannot be ideologically coherent in the manner of European political parties." Do you agree?

I got a first (71%)

Professor's comment:

Lots of good stuff in this but it needs developing a bit more

Wow!

Dave