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Author Topic: Two Guesses  (Read 46570 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #25 on: February 03, 2008, 09:09:35 pm »
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...such as...


I was hungry and ate the pigeon before I got all the details.



It's too early to tell, but it is possible.

So, just "big government" in general....with the uncertainities being on social issues. Heck, social issues might not change at all... just economic ones.

AW, I listed a series of "might be" options.  You asked about one.  I'm saying, watch for major changes.  I can see something coming, but I don't know what.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #26 on: February 03, 2008, 10:56:42 pm »
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...such as...


I was hungry and ate the pigeon before I got all the details.



It's too early to tell, but it is possible.

So, just "big government" in general....with the uncertainities being on social issues. Heck, social issues might not change at all... just economic ones.

AW, I listed a series of "might be" options.  You asked about one.  I'm saying, watch for major changes.  I can see something coming, but I don't know what.

Sounds reasonable. But if the country pushes further right, would that count as a realignment?
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
Sam Spade
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« Reply #27 on: February 03, 2008, 11:13:46 pm »
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...such as...


I was hungry and ate the pigeon before I got all the details.



It's too early to tell, but it is possible.

So, just "big government" in general....with the uncertainities being on social issues. Heck, social issues might not change at all... just economic ones.

AW, I listed a series of "might be" options.  You asked about one.  I'm saying, watch for major changes.  I can see something coming, but I don't know what.

Sounds reasonable. But if the country pushes further right, would that count as a realignment?

Countries don't necessarily just move in a left-right fashion.  The country may move right in some areas and left in some others, with consensus being reached on certain issues at the same time.  Complicated stuff.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #28 on: February 03, 2008, 11:59:50 pm »
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...such as...


I was hungry and ate the pigeon before I got all the details.



It's too early to tell, but it is possible.

So, just "big government" in general....with the uncertainities being on social issues. Heck, social issues might not change at all... just economic ones.

AW, I listed a series of "might be" options.  You asked about one.  I'm saying, watch for major changes.  I can see something coming, but I don't know what.

Sounds reasonable. But if the country pushes further right, would that count as a realignment?

Countries don't necessarily just move in a left-right fashion.  The country may move right in some areas and left in some others, with consensus being reached on certain issues at the same time.  Complicated stuff.
Well then.... What do you see personally? You can just defer to J.J. on this....eating his sacrifices....shameful.

Do we even know what to look for?

For example, 2008 could be this country's new progressive emergence in the dems win or the final triumph of militarism/neo-conservatism with the final election of John McCain. Basically, the entire 2002-2008 realignment could just be towards expansionism.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2008, 12:03:51 am by Angry Weasel »Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
J. J.
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« Reply #29 on: February 04, 2008, 12:22:30 pm »
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In general, a re-alignment produces changes in:

1.  Electoral behavior (who votes for whom).

2.  Electioneering tactics (how a campaign is run). 

3.  Candidate recruitment (who runs).

4.  Elite coalition behavior (who sides with whom).

5.  Formulation of public policy (after the election, what difference does it make).

Now, I would argue that there were changes in all of these after the 1978-84 realignment.

How these changes will work after the next re-alignment, I don't know.

Even in 1984, I did not expect everything that we saw in the post 1984 political world.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
MooMooMoo
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #30 on: February 04, 2008, 10:26:45 pm »
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In general, a re-alignment produces changes in:

1.  Electoral behavior (who votes for whom).
You mean the change of voting blocs?
2.  Electioneering tactics (how a campaign is run). 
You mean whether you push to or from the center?
3.  Candidate recruitment (who runs).
You mean how moderate and radical the candidates are?
4.  Elite coalition behavior (who sides with whom).
You mean what comprises the main parties?
5.  Formulation of public policy (after the election, what difference does it make).
You mean the actual changes in the law?
Now, I would argue that there were changes in all of these after the 1978-84 realignment.

How these changes will work after the next re-alignment, I don't know.

Even in 1984, I did not expect everything that we saw in the post 1984 political world.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
J. J.
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« Reply #31 on: February 04, 2008, 10:32:17 pm »
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In general, a re-alignment produces changes in:

1.  Electoral behavior (who votes for whom).
You mean the change of voting blocs?
2.  Electioneering tactics (how a campaign is run). 
You mean whether you push to or from the center?
3.  Candidate recruitment (who runs).
You mean how moderate and radical the candidates are?
4.  Elite coalition behavior (who sides with whom).
You mean what comprises the main parties?
5.  Formulation of public policy (after the election, what difference does it make).
You mean the actual changes in the law?
Now, I would argue that there were changes in all of these after the 1978-84 realignment.

How these changes will work after the next re-alignment, I don't know.

Even in 1984, I did not expect everything that we saw in the post 1984 political world.

1.  Yes.

2.  No.

3.  No.

4.  No.

5.  Somewhat, but also in terms of policy.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
The Mikado
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« Reply #32 on: February 04, 2008, 10:40:32 pm »
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The two ideas you gave us seems to me, at least, that there are two real possibilities-

- A new progressive era of class politics and victorian culture

I sincerely doubt THAT is ever going to happen.  Tongue

Ah, but think of the clothes!  I'm really looking forward to my monacle and mutton chops.

And the music!  "I am the Captain of the Pinafore..."
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J. J.
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« Reply #33 on: February 04, 2008, 10:45:40 pm »
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The two ideas you gave us seems to me, at least, that there are two real possibilities-

- A new progressive era of class politics and victorian culture

I sincerely doubt THAT is ever going to happen.  Tongue

Ah, but think of the clothes!  I'm really looking forward to my monacle and mutton chops.

And the music!  "I am the Captain of the Pinafore..."

Bow, Bow, ye lower middle classes.  Bow, bow, ye tradesman, bow ye masses.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #34 on: February 05, 2008, 12:09:06 am »
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The two ideas you gave us seems to me, at least, that there are two real possibilities-

- A new progressive era of class politics and victorian culture

I sincerely doubt THAT is ever going to happen.  Tongue

Ah, but think of the clothes!  I'm really looking forward to my monacle and mutton chops.

And the music!  "I am the Captain of the Pinafore..."

Bow, Bow, ye lower middle classes.  Bow, bow, ye tradesman, bow ye masses.

Every heart and every hand ... welcomes thee to fairyland. I did so enjoy designing lights back in '79 for the Peer and the Peri.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #35 on: February 05, 2008, 01:40:12 am »
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I would be completely fine with a political reallingment of some sort. I think these past 30 years or so have done much to hurt and weaken America, its time we enact some real reforms and stop thinking about the present and instead focus on the future.
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MooMooMoo
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« Reply #36 on: February 05, 2008, 11:28:34 am »
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In general, a re-alignment produces changes in:

1.  Electoral behavior (who votes for whom).
You mean the change of voting blocs?
2.  Electioneering tactics (how a campaign is run). 
You mean whether you push to or from the center?
3.  Candidate recruitment (who runs).
You mean how moderate and radical the candidates are?
4.  Elite coalition behavior (who sides with whom).
You mean what comprises the main parties?
5.  Formulation of public policy (after the election, what difference does it make).
You mean the actual changes in the law?
Now, I would argue that there were changes in all of these after the 1978-84 realignment.

How these changes will work after the next re-alignment, I don't know.

Even in 1984, I did not expect everything that we saw in the post 1984 political world.

1.  Yes.

2.  No.

3.  No.

4.  No.

5.  Somewhat, but also in terms of policy.

could you elaborate,then?
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
J. J.
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« Reply #37 on: February 06, 2008, 01:51:19 am »
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In general, a re-alignment produces changes in:

1.  Electoral behavior (who votes for whom).
You mean the change of voting blocs?
2.  Electioneering tactics (how a campaign is run). 
You mean whether you push to or from the center?
3.  Candidate recruitment (who runs).
You mean how moderate and radical the candidates are?
4.  Elite coalition behavior (who sides with whom).
You mean what comprises the main parties?
5.  Formulation of public policy (after the election, what difference does it make).
You mean the actual changes in the law?
Now, I would argue that there were changes in all of these after the 1978-84 realignment.

How these changes will work after the next re-alignment, I don't know.

Even in 1984, I did not expect everything that we saw in the post 1984 political world.

1.  Yes.

2.  No.

3.  No.

4.  No.

5.  Somewhat, but also in terms of policy.

could you elaborate,then?

I did.

The re-alignment will not take place in this cycle.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #38 on: February 06, 2008, 03:52:25 am »
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I would be completely fine with a political reallingment of some sort. I think these past 30 years or so have done much to hurt and weaken America, its time we enact some real reforms and stop thinking about the present and instead focus on the future.

Well, JJ seems to be predicting even more of the right wing policies that have hurt and weakened america (or to be more precisely the vast majority of americans) over the last 30 years... not less.

I think it is true that the nonsense ideologies of the right, such as individual responsibility and the Horatio Alger myth, remain just as embedded in the upcoming generations.  On the 'social' side I'm not quite so sure that the hateful intolerance is increasing, but it is true that it is too optimistic to say it is going away.

One wonders, however, just how far a realignment can go against reason and evidence - most americans been getting poorer for 30 years.. will they continue to embrace the policies that made this occur for another 30?  It is possible.

Ultimately people are almost unbelievably controlled by their programming. 

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J. J.
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« Reply #39 on: February 06, 2008, 09:44:23 am »
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I would be completely fine with a political reallingment of some sort. I think these past 30 years or so have done much to hurt and weaken America, its time we enact some real reforms and stop thinking about the present and instead focus on the future.

Well, JJ seems to be predicting even more of the right wing policies that have hurt and weakened america (or to be more precisely the vast majority of americans) over the last 30 years... not less.

I think it is true that the nonsense ideologies of the right, such as individual responsibility and the Horatio Alger myth, remain just as embedded in the upcoming generations.  On the 'social' side I'm not quite so sure that the hateful intolerance is increasing, but it is true that it is too optimistic to say it is going away.

One wonders, however, just how far a realignment can go against reason and evidence - most americans been getting poorer for 30 years.. will they continue to embrace the policies that made this occur for another 30?  It is possible.

Ultimately people are almost unbelievably controlled by their programming. 



Poor Opebo, the syphilis has finally affected his brain.

I've posted that I don't know what the changes will look like, only that I think there is a likelihood that there will be major changes.  Left, right, some entirely different direction, I don't know.

BTW, we no longer need Horatio Alger.  We have Oprah Winfrey and Barack Obama.  Smiley
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
MooMooMoo
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« Reply #40 on: February 06, 2008, 11:58:57 am »
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I would be completely fine with a political reallingment of some sort. I think these past 30 years or so have done much to hurt and weaken America, its time we enact some real reforms and stop thinking about the present and instead focus on the future.

Well, JJ seems to be predicting even more of the right wing policies that have hurt and weakened america (or to be more precisely the vast majority of americans) over the last 30 years... not less.

I think it is true that the nonsense ideologies of the right, such as individual responsibility and the Horatio Alger myth, remain just as embedded in the upcoming generations.  On the 'social' side I'm not quite so sure that the hateful intolerance is increasing, but it is true that it is too optimistic to say it is going away.

One wonders, however, just how far a realignment can go against reason and evidence - most americans been getting poorer for 30 years.. will they continue to embrace the policies that made this occur for another 30?  It is possible.

Ultimately people are almost unbelievably controlled by their programming. 



Poor Opebo, the syphilis has finally affected his brain.

I've posted that I don't know what the changes will look like, only that I think there is a likelihood that there will be major changes.  Left, right, some entirely different direction, I don't know.

BTW, we no longer need Horatio Alger.  We have Oprah Winfrey and Barack Obama.  Smiley


Is a further right-wing strengthening even a realignment? Perhaps it is just continuation of the current one.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
J. J.
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« Reply #41 on: February 06, 2008, 01:27:31 pm »
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Is a further right-wing strengthening even a realignment? Perhaps it is just continuation of the current one.

Yes, and the changes may not fit the traditional left-wing/right-wing mold.  The McKinley re-alignment was not a party change, but there were difference.

If I can use an analogy:

I'm standing on a straight dirt road on a dry, relatively level, plain.  I look up the road, miles away and see a dust cloud, moving own the road.  It's probably not a dust devil, but what is it?

1.  A group of people walking and kicking up dust?

2.  A horse?  A horse with a rider? 

3. A vehicle?  A moped? A Segway?  An ATV?  A car?  A pickup truck?  A tractor trailer?  A motercycle?  A tank?  A horse and buggy?

4.  How many?  One?  Two dozen?

5.  How far?  Probably not within one or two miles, but maybe 5 or 10.

I can see that something is coming, but I don't know what.  I may like what is coming , but I may not either.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
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« Reply #42 on: February 06, 2008, 01:29:56 pm »
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Just for the record, you might want to look at the works of V. O. Key regarding re-alignments.

Also, I probably won't be one after the next one. Smiley
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
MooMooMoo
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« Reply #43 on: February 06, 2008, 03:59:05 pm »
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V.O. Keys? Gotcha.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
J. J.
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« Reply #44 on: February 06, 2008, 05:25:29 pm »
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V.O. Keys? Gotcha.

No, "Key," no "s" on the end.  Here is some background:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V.O._Key,_Jr.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Platypus
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« Reply #45 on: February 15, 2008, 09:22:11 am »
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Race and class will become less important, but economic wellbeing will be critical and religion will be a major factor. Expect a huge tug-of-war between the reliious right and the secularist left. It'll be messy.
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J. J.
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« Reply #46 on: February 15, 2008, 09:35:16 am »
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Race and class will become less important, but economic wellbeing will be critical and religion will be a major factor. Expect a huge tug-of-war between the reliious right and the secularist left. It'll be messy.

It could be, or, conversely, we could see a reduction in the importance of moral issues.  The collapse of Huckabee could be a harbinger of that.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
MooMooMoo
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« Reply #47 on: February 15, 2008, 11:53:55 am »
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Race and class will become less important, but economic wellbeing will be critical and religion will be a major factor. Expect a huge tug-of-war between the reliious right and the secularist left. It'll be messy.

It could be, or, conversely, we could see a reduction in the importance of moral issues.  The collapse of Huckabee could be a harbinger of that.

....yeah. That's what I am thinking. Our coming generation of voters don't really care, either way, about abortion, gays or the choice of herbs you inhale. Things could go back to class warring (some indications are very clear this will be the case, some indications show that JJ's agrued point of a classless society are coming to fruition and the fact that people LOVE voting against their economic interest on both sides). Yes, Huckabee is collapsing...the fact that there is something the matter with Mississippi AND California...leaves race and maybe source of income as the next source of culture war. 
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
J. J.
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« Reply #48 on: February 15, 2008, 07:41:44 pm »
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I don't know which way the country will be going, only that there will a massive change.  I don't expect it this year.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #49 on: February 15, 2008, 08:11:03 pm »
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Didn't this already happen in 1988-1996?
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