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Author Topic: Two Guesses  (Read 47923 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #350 on: October 07, 2012, 12:02:24 am »
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I think there is one important point that you may have overlooked in this analysis, regarding the Reagan realignment.  Southern Democrats are a complicated breed, but there is a general consensus that conservatives won a majority in the House in 1980 and then lost it in 1982.  That didn't make Reagan's reforms any less influential.

You also had the gypsy moths, northern Republicans that were hostile to part of the Reagan agenda. 

In 1932, you did have a few Bull Moose Republicans that supported FDR.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
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« Reply #351 on: October 09, 2012, 04:23:12 pm »
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In 1980, the last realignment, the polls moved in the final fortnight.  Because we don't have solid polling of prior realignments, we can't tell that this is the sign of a realignment.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #352 on: October 09, 2012, 05:08:30 pm »
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Basically, what I am saying is that if there was a true "realignment", there would be massive structural changes to the American party system.
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
J. J.
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« Reply #353 on: October 10, 2012, 12:23:33 am »
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Basically, what I am saying is that if there was a true "realignment", there would be massive structural changes to the American party system.

Structural changes in the parties, no.  Financing, and how campaigns are conducted, yes.  The are happening.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #354 on: October 10, 2012, 01:19:19 pm »
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And how will that affect the issues? Basically, you are saying that this will be a more libertarian change than a conservative one? and by structural, I mean that there will be one main legitimate party with one party being more of a protest vote.

Could what I have been talking about finally happen in the Democratic party where the Democrats actually start messaging to people who will actually vote and vote for them? (focus more on independents and women instead of the disadvantaged).
« Last Edit: October 10, 2012, 01:22:28 pm by Mutthole Surfers »Logged


Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
J. J.
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« Reply #355 on: October 10, 2012, 02:39:50 pm »
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And how will that affect the issues? Basically, you are saying that this will be a more libertarian change than a conservative one? and by structural, I mean that there will be one main legitimate party with one party being more of a protest vote.

I think I said that it could be more libertarian, not that it would.  This one is of fiscal conservatism.

No, I don't think there will be one party.

Quote
Could what I have been talking about finally happen in the Democratic party where the Democrats actually start messaging to people who will actually vote and vote for them? (focus more on independents and women instead of the disadvantaged).

It might be a different focus, less bureaucratic, on the disadvantage.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #356 on: October 10, 2012, 05:11:44 pm »
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What kind of different focus? What states do you think they might start focusing on? Will this push the Dems out west, back south or...

Perhaps Democrats will be the party of  "Third Way" economics (public funding and private implementation)  and White Collar social policy?
« Last Edit: October 10, 2012, 05:14:43 pm by Mutthole Surfers »Logged


Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
J. J.
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« Reply #357 on: October 10, 2012, 06:53:25 pm »
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What kind of different focus? What states do you think they might start focusing on? Will this push the Dems out west, back south or...

I was writing regarding the disadvantaged.  I'll make another bold prediction.  In the election of 2032, one half of the black voters will be voting Republican, if not sooner.

Quote
Perhaps Democrats will be the party of  "Third Way" economics (public funding and private implementation)  and White Collar social policy?

Possibly.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #358 on: October 10, 2012, 09:34:16 pm »
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I could actually see that. If minorities start voting R, who will vote D?
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
J. J.
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« Reply #359 on: October 10, 2012, 09:41:52 pm »
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I could actually see that. If minorities start voting R, who will vote D?

You could see an income divide, or a regional divide.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #360 on: October 11, 2012, 08:25:33 am »
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Regional divide? That could be interesting. Any maps?
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
J. J.
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« Reply #361 on: October 11, 2012, 09:40:16 am »
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Regional divide? That could be interesting. Any maps?

Left Coast/Right Coast, the Center.

I would not be too surprised to see IL become a swing state.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #362 on: October 12, 2012, 08:46:22 am »
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So, basically the entire midwest where Republicans won big in 2010 will become reliably Republican and Democrats will have to look to the South Atlantic and push inland from the Left Coast to make up the gains but many voters there will onlly vote for them under a certain level of duress.
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
J. J.
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« Reply #363 on: October 12, 2012, 09:09:32 am »
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So, basically the entire midwest where Republicans won big in 2010 will become reliably Republican and Democrats will have to look to the South Atlantic and push inland from the Left Coast to make up the gains but many voters there will onlly vote for them under a certain level of duress.

This could be the future patterns:



That is not a prediction, but I think the patterns might start forming like this.  Contrast with 1976 and 1980.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2012, 09:12:29 am by J. J. »Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #364 on: October 14, 2012, 11:37:08 am »
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That actually could be believable, but its pretty much the current map but the Democrats can't rely on the Great Lakes anymore...though I imagine that I a good Democrat would be able to push more west than south.

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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
J. J.
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« Reply #365 on: October 14, 2012, 12:17:14 pm »
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Three other potential toss up states:

PA, WV, AZ
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #366 on: October 14, 2012, 12:34:54 pm »
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I'll go with that. Perhaps a very good democrat might win in the Dakotas or Montana and perhaps a very good Republican will take some small up market Dem state like Connecticut or Maryland.

A possible scenario

2012-
Obama 46.4%
Romney 52.2%



2016-
Romney/Ryan 55.4%
Clinton/Schweitzer 43.2%



2020
Cuomo/O'Malley 54.4%
Ryan/Cruz- 44.4%
« Last Edit: October 14, 2012, 12:38:38 pm by Mutthole Surfers »Logged


Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
J. J.
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« Reply #367 on: October 14, 2012, 12:47:17 pm »
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I would almost say that, if there is a realignment, 2020 will be reversed in terms of PV.

If you want to watch me become very pessimistic, watch what happens if Romney wins in a close election.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #368 on: October 14, 2012, 02:25:24 pm »
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I would almost say that, if there is a realignment, 2020 will be reversed in terms of PV.

If you want to watch me become very pessimistic, watch what happens if Romney wins in a close election.

So you're worried that Romney is reverse Carter?

You might be waiting for nothing, though. The country could just be angry enough to throw out 3-4 incumbents in a row until the economy takes off. 

I actually think the worst outcome for Democrats would be if Obama barely wins and Republicans take the senate, particularly if Obama loses the popular vote in the process.  He doesn't need to repeat 2008, but he needs a good 3-4% September margin not to be a lame duck from day 1.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2012, 02:49:02 pm by Skill and Chance »Logged
J. J.
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« Reply #369 on: October 14, 2012, 04:22:52 pm »
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So you're worried that Romney is reverse Carter?

You might be waiting for nothing, though. The country could just be angry enough to throw out 3-4 incumbents in a row until the economy takes off. 

I actually think the worst outcome for Democrats would be if Obama barely wins and Republicans take the senate, particularly if Obama loses the popular vote in the process.  He doesn't need to repeat 2008, but he needs a good 3-4% September margin not to be a lame duck from day 1.


We've kind of been talking about three analogous elections:

A.  Wilson/Hughes 1916

B.  Ford/Carter 1976

C.  Carter/Reagan 1980

C. was a realignment, B. was election right before the realignment.  This could be B. 
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #370 on: October 15, 2012, 09:48:43 pm »
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So, what you are thinking now, it could be conceivable that-

if when we finally go to bed 3 weeks and a day from now THIS-



and maybe a divided or a barely R senate because the Gypsy Moth Republicans did well in the  Northeast....

This would mean that the Republicans will have to be very good or lucky to keep the momentum going...

If we see Obama doing ok in places in Ohio, Virginia and Colorado and keeping the senate, he might simply be a placeholder until we go back to what we had in 2004, basically we'll be back on the straight express, with roughly the same numbers of what we had then...except the Rs may lose their immediate opportunity to at least repeal the most of the Civil Rights movement through the courts.

If we see the Republicans winning by more than what they won in 2004,  (maybe 10 EVs for every senator they are short), this could be a 1896 type of deal where the Corporation is finally enshrined as the main political unit of the country, the same way 1896 enshrined the Gold Standard.
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
J. J.
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« Reply #371 on: October 16, 2012, 12:36:11 am »
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First, that is not even close to a realignment map.

Second, I give Obama IA and WI. 
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #372 on: October 16, 2012, 03:50:37 pm »
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So you're worried that Romney is reverse Carter?

You might be waiting for nothing, though. The country could just be angry enough to throw out 3-4 incumbents in a row until the economy takes off. 

I actually think the worst outcome for Democrats would be if Obama barely wins and Republicans take the senate, particularly if Obama loses the popular vote in the process.  He doesn't need to repeat 2008, but he needs a good 3-4% September margin not to be a lame duck from day 1.


We've kind of been talking about three analogous elections:

A.  Wilson/Hughes 1916

B.  Ford/Carter 1976

C.  Carter/Reagan 1980

C. was a realignment, B. was election right before the realignment.  This could be B. 

For B. wouldn't the 2016 Dem have to beat Romney by running left of Obama?  That seems a little far fetched as of now.

For C., Romney seems way too moderate to actually bring down the New Deal.
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J. J.
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« Reply #373 on: October 16, 2012, 04:22:51 pm »
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For B. wouldn't the 2016 Dem have to beat Romney by running left of Obama?  That seems a little far fetched as of now.

For C., Romney seems way too moderate to actually bring down the New Deal.

Neither would be.  Actually, on the issues, Romney is substantially different. 
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
I Can't Believe It's Not Murder!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #374 on: October 16, 2012, 05:45:42 pm »
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You think Romney could end the New Deal and perhaps though not quite get us to the gilded Age, may get us to the 1920s where there were some regulations in place, but nothing like Social Security or Medicare.

and if there is a realignment I expect these things to happen-

1) Rederegulate the insurance market
2) Medicare and Medicaid to be privitized and replaced with vochers
3) Employer health insurance mandate to be replaced with matching funding of tax free HSAs and home-bought policies. 
4) more health care for the needy through grants to charities.
5) Allow insurers to do blood and genome tests as a condition of getting insurance.
6) Allow insurers to "sell across state lines"

The democrats, could respond with these policies when they win-
1) Mandatory minimium health contribution from employers for all employees who are earners under a certain point
2) allowing those who can prove they can't get private insurance to have  higher vouchers from employers.
3) pass some sort of health purchase program modeled on the food stamp program.


Otherwise, I think that if someone runs to the left of Obama and wins in 2016, I think that hypothetical #46 will call for and get a public option.
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Effective policing requires to know when backing down is in the best interest of public safety.  By all accounts, the culture of the Ferguson Police was ignorant of that fact, and instead treated Cartman of South Park as a role model for how to be a police officer.
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