Two Guesses (user search)
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Author Topic: Two Guesses  (Read 69125 times)
AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« on: October 18, 2012, 08:38:01 PM »

This would all indicate a trend back to where there are both cultural liberals and conservatives in both parties and an end of the New Deal. Basically 2020 could be the anti-1960...basically a socially liberal Gilded Age where the Republican party is basically the Federal Party...and unless the Democrats coalesce in a particular reigion (this is an unless argument and not given because of the Senate goes R its because the Republicans were winners in every party of the country), the Republicans will eventually be up against reigional opposition parties. Maybe the Green Party in the West coast, The Libertarian Party in the West and Northeast and maybe some American party in the South and Midwest. Basically, that's what the Gilded Age basically was. The Democrats had a lock on the south, were very weak anywhere else and various "Not Republicans" were a semi-viable alternative outside of the South.   
That is plausible. 

I've been trying to think of ways the dems could transform into a viable party if it abandoned it's twisted policies/constituents or was finally faced with perpetual defeat.  Regional opposition makes a lot of sense.  They could try to split the electoral college 4 or 5 ways if they ever had a coalition in the house.     
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AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2012, 11:02:35 AM »

This would all indicate a trend back to where there are both cultural liberals and conservatives in both parties and an end of the New Deal. Basically 2020 could be the anti-1960...basically a socially liberal Gilded Age where the Republican party is basically the Federal Party...and unless the Democrats coalesce in a particular reigion (this is an unless argument and not given because of the Senate goes R its because the Republicans were winners in every party of the country), the Republicans will eventually be up against reigional opposition parties. Maybe the Green Party in the West coast, The Libertarian Party in the West and Northeast and maybe some American party in the South and Midwest. Basically, that's what the Gilded Age basically was. The Democrats had a lock on the south, were very weak anywhere else and various "Not Republicans" were a semi-viable alternative outside of the South.   
That is plausible. 

I've been trying to think of ways the dems could transform into a viable party if it abandoned it's twisted policies/constituents or was finally faced with perpetual defeat.  Regional opposition makes a lot of sense.  They could try to split the electoral college 4 or 5 ways if they ever had a coalition in the house.     

This is ridiculous.  You sound just like all the liberals in 2009 crowing that it would be 2030 before the Republicans were competitive outside of the South.  There is a presidential nominee in a statistical tie running on the most liberal platform in a generation.

umm, I said "IF".  Obviously several major things would have to happen.  Most people don't know enough history to understand that things stay the same and complex systems continue to work, until they stop working and then massive shifts/changes occur really quickly. 
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AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2012, 11:51:54 AM »

...Sure, they may well do that, which would likely cause a serious breakdown in the dems ability to be a national party. 



A Neo-'Rockefeller'-ish brand of Republicans based in the powder blue states lead the party. 
The Green States face Bankruptcy/Bond default/Austerity. 

The dems faced with perpetual defeat turn to A powerful southern based Bush-Clinton-esque political family to break up the southern block. 



The NE will always be in opposition to the Deep south and thus eventually realigns.
This re-balances the parties 269-269 
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AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2012, 02:13:17 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2012, 02:26:35 PM by AmericanNation »

Pray tell who can enforce bankruptcy/austerity on a sovereign state?  And if the GOP can win nationally exclusively by turning their base out, why can't the Dems?  You realize there are lots of people out there that aren't voting this year because they think Obama didn't do enough, right?
Well, our states aren't exactly "sovereign".  We are part of a Union of states, which has some guidelines to it.  One thing of interest is that the states gave up their 'right' to print their own currency.  Also, Almost every state bans itself from running a deficit in it's own state constitution.  States have rights of course, but things get tricky if a state fails to meet serious obligations on a huge scale.  The closest thing to a scenario like this is a large corporation going into bankruptcy.  The bondholders and bankruptcy judge / appointed manager start taking over.  If the Feds step in, they would really be able to do whatever they wanted (in exchange for their money).  All of these things cause major ripple effects.    

The only similar historical example I know of is Newfoundland's collapse in the 30's.  The 'British Empire' stepped in and re-gained control of the sovereign state in exchange for meeting it's obligations.        

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominion_of_Newfoundland

http://www.heritage.nf.ca/law/collapse_responsible_gov.html
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AmericanNation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2012, 10:33:40 PM »

The realignment will be the midwest "rust belt" becoming fairly R or at least not leaning dem.  WI, PA, MI, MN all in play and going half or more R is crippling to the Ds.  The combination of a successful Romney administration and popular R Govs and Sens locally will begin to cement the shift.   
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