George W. Bush (R) vs John McCain (D), 2004

[© tweed]

John McCain loses an intense primary fight in 2000 to GWB and there is no love lost between them.  McCain reluctantly endorses Bush in May of 2000 and Bush wins a controversial victor over Al Gore in the 2000 election.

the Senate is split 50-50; VP Dick Cheney breaks the tie and the Republicans hold a technical majority.  a vigorous recruiting effort, spearheaded by Minority Leader Tom Daschle, converts two Republican Senators to the Democratic caucus: James Jeffords of Vermont, and John McCain of Arizona.  Jeffords chooses to refer to himself as an Independent, but McCain takes whatever steps necessary to become a declared Democrat.

McCain becomes increasingly vocal in late 2002 in opposition to the War in Iraq, and votes 'no' on the resolution that declared the support, in the sense of the Senate, for the use of military force in Iraq.  the resolution passes 76-24; Democratic presidential frontrunners John Kerry, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Lieberman all vote 'yes.'

the 'no' vote endears McCain to the anti-war wing of the party, which had been looking for a figurehead, especially after the vocal war critic Gore declared in December 2002 that he would not seek renomination.  a "Draft McCain" movement is born, with support from moderate Republicans, anti-Bush Independents, and many Democrats.

McCain declares his candidacy for the presidency, as a Democrat, in May of 2003.  he is the instant frontrunner, but many groups, including NOW and others on the left, oppose McCain's bid as pure political opportunism.  in a somewhat difficult campaign, that saw McCain lose Iowa to John Edwards, McCain prevails, taking NH, 6 of 7 states on mini-Tuesday, and a clean sweep in Super Tuesday to secure the nomination.

McCain's coalition in the Democratic primaries was a strange one; it included some anti-war activists, but not all; some defected to upstart Howard Dean.  many Republicans crossed over to vote for McCain as well and he routinely took 2/3rds or more of Independents.  seeking to mend fences with some on the left who still viewed McCain skeptically as an opportunist, McCain chooses friend and finance reform ally Russ Feingold of Wisconsin as his running mate in the quest to dethrone Bush.

John McCain/Russell Feingold (D) vs
George W Bush/Dick Cheney (R)

[© tweed]

article written on this topic in May of 2002:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/0205.green.html

[Iosif is a COTHO]

It's difficult to say because the John McCain you describe is so completely different to the John McCain of now. For him to become an anti-war Democrat would require a complete personality transplant. I suppose it's possible that he could have really shifted leftward due to bitterness over the way the Republicans had treated him in 2000. But he'd have a lot of convincing to do to assure Democrats the shift was genuine.

Plus to do what your scenario has him doing would cause him to make lots and lots of enemies. I couldn't really say who would win (though I'd be skeptical that 'many' Republicans would cross over to support him)  but let's just say it would be a fairly bitter election.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This may be way off...

McCain wins 294-244