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Author Topic: Obama leading Clinton in 3 different CA Polls  (Read 2053 times)
8 out of 11 is not deserved
pollwatch99-b
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« on: February 03, 2008, 05:59:44 pm »
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Zogby +4
Rasmussen +1
Suffolk +1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html

Call it dead even

The Field Poll that has Clinton+2 is a strange poll.

Anybody believe that 30% are undecided?  That what Field has.  I'd throw that out
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For 40 years since 1968, the republican party has won 7 out of 10 presidential contests.  Do they really deserve 8 out of 11?
Lief
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« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2008, 06:12:09 pm »
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The Field Poll has traditionally been the best poll in California, though that 30% undecided figure is a bit ridiculous.
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« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2008, 06:14:11 pm »
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Quote from: Lief on February 03, 2008, 06:12:09 pm
The Field Poll has traditionally been the best poll in California, though that 30% undecided figure is a bit ridiculous.

Yeah, they really don't push people. do they? At least it isn't as bad as that Montana poll that had Huckabee winning with 16% of the vote and 48% undecided.
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8 out of 11 is not deserved
pollwatch99-b
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« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2008, 06:14:26 pm »
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Quote from: Lief on February 03, 2008, 06:12:09 pm
The Field Poll has traditionally been the best poll in California, though that 30% undecided figure is a bit ridiculous.

I agree usually Field is the best.  I cannot believe 30% undecided either.  It's a strange one
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For 40 years since 1968, the republican party has won 7 out of 10 presidential contests.  Do they really deserve 8 out of 11?
J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2008, 06:15:08 pm »
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The majority of that 30% will break for Clinton; my prediction.
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8 out of 11 is not deserved
pollwatch99-b
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« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2008, 06:16:08 pm »
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Of course, you could also assume, after all this time if Hillary cannot get the voters in the Field poll, it will bode well for Obama. 

I still think it's just a strange poll
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For 40 years since 1968, the republican party has won 7 out of 10 presidential contests.  Do they really deserve 8 out of 11?
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« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2008, 06:17:35 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on February 03, 2008, 06:15:08 pm
The majority of that 30% will break for Clinton; my prediction.
I'd think that Clinton functions as more of the incumbent, so that 30% would probably break mostly to Obama.
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8 out of 11 is not deserved
pollwatch99-b
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« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2008, 06:17:43 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on February 03, 2008, 06:15:08 pm
The majority of that 30% will break for Clinton; my prediction.

Disagree if the 30% is really undecided.  Clinton is in big trouble.  She has lost momentum and it figures not to break back to her since she had huge leads
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For 40 years since 1968, the republican party has won 7 out of 10 presidential contests.  Do they really deserve 8 out of 11?
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« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2008, 06:22:48 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on February 03, 2008, 06:15:08 pm
The majority of that 30% will break for Clinton; my prediction.

On what basis?

Clinton has been the one losing in the polls, and undecideds rarely "wobble" back to their original candidate when there is this sort of momentum.

Then again, if those all are very marginal Clinton supporters considering Obama...but that would be a rare occurrence not really supported in other polls.
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« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2008, 06:24:21 pm »
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Stick a fork in Hillary, she's finished.
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« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2008, 06:25:08 pm »
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Quote from: Aizen on February 03, 2008, 06:24:21 pm
Stick a fork in Hillary, she's finished.

Don't say that.  Remember what happened last time people said that.
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« Reply #11 on: February 03, 2008, 06:25:37 pm »
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Quote from: Gabu on February 03, 2008, 06:25:08 pm
Quote from: Aizen on February 03, 2008, 06:24:21 pm
Stick a fork in Hillary, she's finished.

Don't say that.  Remember what happened last time people said that.

You mean in South Carolina? Wink
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8 out of 11 is not deserved
pollwatch99-b
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« Reply #12 on: February 03, 2008, 06:25:49 pm »
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Quote from: Aizen on February 03, 2008, 06:24:21 pm
Stick a fork in Hillary, she's finished.

No, wait until she doesn't have enough delegates.  The establishment super delegates favor her
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For 40 years since 1968, the republican party has won 7 out of 10 presidential contests.  Do they really deserve 8 out of 11?
Aizen
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« Reply #13 on: February 03, 2008, 06:26:23 pm »
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Quote from: pollwatch99-b on February 03, 2008, 06:25:49 pm
Quote from: Aizen on February 03, 2008, 06:24:21 pm
Stick a fork in Hillary, she's finished.

No, wait until she doesn't have enough delegates.  The establishment super delegates favor her


No, stick a fork in her
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« Reply #14 on: February 03, 2008, 06:27:13 pm »
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Quote from: Gabu on February 03, 2008, 06:25:08 pm
Quote from: Aizen on February 03, 2008, 06:24:21 pm
Stick a fork in Hillary, she's finished.

Don't say that.  Remember what happened last time people said that.

And at least there was some justification for that.
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« Reply #15 on: February 03, 2008, 06:29:09 pm »
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Quote from: Aizen on February 03, 2008, 06:24:21 pm
Stick a fork in Hillary, she's finished.

Bite your tongue.

Quote from: pollwatch99-b on February 03, 2008, 06:25:49 pm
Quote from: Aizen on February 03, 2008, 06:24:21 pm
Stick a fork in Hillary, she's finished.

No, wait until she doesn't have enough delegates.  The establishment super delegates favor her

I doubt that if Obama wins the elected delegates over Hillary that the supers will go against the elected delegates to throw the nomination towards hillary. They would be stupid to do that.
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« Reply #16 on: February 03, 2008, 07:04:07 pm »
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Quote from: pollwatch99-b on February 03, 2008, 06:25:49 pm
Quote from: Aizen on February 03, 2008, 06:24:21 pm
Stick a fork in Hillary, she's finished.

No, wait until she doesn't have enough delegates.  The establishment super delegates favor her

I have a feeling that's not true: way more big names have endorsed Obama than have endorsed Hillary, and if anyone has the clout to win over super-delegate votes it's Ted Kennedy. Plus most red-state dems will vote for Obama because they don't want to be beat over the head with attack ads featuring hillary clinton for the next 4-8 years.
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« Reply #17 on: February 03, 2008, 07:39:41 pm »
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rumor is that gore might endorse Obama after Tuesday if he is perceived as the winner or it is a tie.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #18 on: February 03, 2008, 08:03:47 pm »
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Quote from: Flem on February 03, 2008, 07:39:41 pm
rumor is that gore might endorse Obama after Tuesday if he is perceived as the winner or it is a tie.
Helpful timing. Tongue Cheesy
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Lief
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« Reply #19 on: February 03, 2008, 08:07:15 pm »
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Well, it would be pretty embarrassing if Gore endorsed Obama tomorrow only to have Obama lose Tennessee the day after that.
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« Reply #20 on: February 03, 2008, 08:12:53 pm »
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Quote from: Lief on February 03, 2008, 08:07:15 pm
Well, it would be pretty embarrassing if Gore endorsed Obama tomorrow only to have Obama lose Tennessee the day after that.

Yeah, I think that's why he's waiting until after tuesday.
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« Reply #21 on: February 03, 2008, 08:23:38 pm »
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Quote from: Lief on February 03, 2008, 08:07:15 pm
Well, it would be pretty embarrassing if Gore endorsed Obama tomorrow only to have Obama lose Tennessee the day after that.

I would think Gore is used to losing Tennessee.
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Gabu
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« Reply #22 on: February 03, 2008, 08:24:48 pm »
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Quote from: Lief on February 03, 2008, 08:07:15 pm
Well, it would be pretty embarrassing if Gore endorsed Obama tomorrow only to have Obama lose Tennessee the day after that.

Do people even think of Tennessee as his home state anymore?
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"To me, 'underground' sounds like subway trains.  That's the only sound I associate with 'underground'." - Everett
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