If past elections had the same states..
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  If past elections had the same states..
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Author Topic: If past elections had the same states..  (Read 11428 times)
Platypus
hughento
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« on: February 12, 2004, 05:46:01 AM »

..who would have won?

I have done all the elections from 1960 onwards, taking all the states Gore won in 200 as democrat and all that Bush won as GOP to see who would have won.

I'll do some more later, perhaps Smiley

1960:
275 Democratic
262 Republican

1964:
279 Democratic
259 Republican

1968:
Same as 1964

1972:
274 Democratic
264 Republican

1976:
278 Democratic
260 Republican

1980:
Same as 1976

1984:
271 Republican
267 Democratic

1988:
271 Democratic
267 Republican

1992:
271 Republican
267 Democratic

1996:
Same as 1992

2000:
Same as 1992, 1996

2004:
278 Republican
260 Democrat

Interesting to note the changes between 84 and 92, and how the nation has moved towards more Republican states, most significantly in the last 4 years. 2004 is an exact reversal of 32 years ago, in fact.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2004, 12:04:22 PM »

..who would have won?

I have done all the elections from 1960 onwards, taking all the states Gore won in 200 as democrat and all that Bush won as GOP to see who would have won.

I'll do some more later, perhaps Smiley

1960:
275 Democratic
262 Republican

1964:
279 Democratic
259 Republican

1968:
Same as 1964

1972:
274 Democratic
264 Republican

1976:
278 Democratic
260 Republican

1980:
Same as 1976

1984:
271 Republican
267 Democratic

1988:
271 Democratic
267 Republican

1992:
271 Republican
267 Democratic

1996:
Same as 1992

2000:
Same as 1992, 1996

2004:
278 Republican
260 Democrat

Interesting to note the changes between 84 and 92, and how the nation has moved towards more Republican states, most significantly in the last 4 years. 2004 is an exact reversal of 32 years ago, in fact.

Lol, I actually did that before, but thought it too nerdy to publish... Wink

I will soon get back with numbers! Smiley
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2004, 12:52:13 PM »

1956 Dem Win, 272-238

1952 Dem Win, 272-259

1948 Dem Win, 268-262

1944 Dem Win, 268-263

1940 Dem Win, 267-264

1936 Dem Win, 267-264

1932 Dem Win, 267-264

1928 Dem Loss, 259-273

1924 Dem Loss, 258-273

1920 Dem Loss, 258-273

1916 Dem Loss, 258-273

1912 Dem Loss, 258-273

1908 Dem Loss, 230-253

1904 Dem Loss, 230-246

1900 Dem Loss, 213-234

Seems like the Bush states commaned a majority until the 30s, when things changed around a lot.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2004, 01:00:22 PM »

1988 should be the same as 1984
and
1976 should be the same as 1972

One would certainly think so, you're right about that...strange.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2004, 01:32:12 PM »

1896 Dem Loss, 213-234

1892 Dem Loss, 213-231

1888 Dem Loss, 197-204

1884 Dem Loss, 197-204

1880 Dem Win, 184-183

1876 Dem Win, 186-183

1872 Dem Win, 192-157

1868 Dem Win, 162-132

1864 Dem Win, 162-72

1860 Dem Win, 153-150

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Gustaf
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« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2004, 03:02:50 PM »

Going ridiculously long way back in time...

1856 Dem Loss, 146-150

1852 Dem Loss, 146-150

1848 Dem Loss, 139-151

1844 Dem Loss, 131-144

1840 Dem Loss, 144-150

1836 Dem Loss, 144-150

1832 Dem Loss, 139-147

1828 Dem Win, 132-129

1824 Dem Win, 132-129

1820 Dem Win, 124-107

1816 Dem Win, 116-101

1812  Dem Win, 120-97

1808 Dem Win, 93-76

1804 Dem Win, 99-77

1800 Dem Win, 80-58

1796 Dem Win, 80-58

1792 Dem Win, 77-55

1789 Dem Win, 42-34

That's all for today, folks... Wink
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Gustaf
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« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2004, 03:10:13 PM »

OK, so let's add up totals! Smiley

The Gore states have 11 straight victories during the period 1789-1828, then heads right for 7 straight losses 1832-1856.

Stand for pre-Civil War era:

Gore: 11

Bush: 7

Then the Bush states suffer another series of defeats, 6, 1860-1880. Then they get 12 straight wins, 1884-1928 to make up for it though.

Stand when depression sets in:

Gore: 17

Bush: 19

Then the Gore states get another win streak lasting until 1980, a total of 13 wins. Since then, the Bush states are unbeaten, scoring 5 straight wins.

Final stand:

Gore: 30

Bush: 24

Result: A CLEAR WIN FOR THE GORE STATES! Smiley
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2004, 03:49:36 PM »

I did this a while ago but didn't post a thread Sad
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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2004, 04:43:23 PM »

I did this a while ago but didn't post a thread Sad

Same here...Hughento beat us to it and got to shine... Sad
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2004, 05:27:15 PM »

I did this a while ago but didn't post a thread Sad

Same here...Hughento beat us to it and got to shine... Sad
Lets go get him!  Yeehaaa!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2004, 05:28:52 PM »

I did this a while ago but didn't post a thread Sad

Same here...Hughento beat us to it and got to shine... Sad
Lets go get him!  Yeehaaa!

We're going to 1996 and 1992 and 1988 and 1984, and then we're going to 1960 and 1860 and 1760 and...ehhh...YEEEHAAAAAAAHHHHHH!

Wink
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2004, 12:07:59 AM »

Here I was, thinking I was totally pioneering it Tongue

thanks, Gustaf, for going back; it is really interesting o note then Dem/Rep shift Smiley
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2004, 03:12:51 PM »

Here I was, thinking I was totally pioneering it Tongue

thanks, Gustaf, for going back; it is really interesting o note then Dem/Rep shift Smiley

Well, so did I when I made my first private analysis...I guess most forum members are scaringly similar when it comes to these things... Smiley

It's interesting to see that there have been no quick shifts back and forth, only long series all the time.

I'm gonna do more elections, btw! Smiley
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Gustaf
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« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2004, 06:59:07 PM »

OK, let's do one of the closest elections of all times in EV, which very clearly illustrates demographic trends: 1916

1916: Dem Win, 277-254

1920: Dem Win, 276-255

1924: Dem Win, 276-255

1928: Dem Win, 276-256

1932: Dem Win, 279-252

1936: Dem Win, 279-252

1940: Dem Win, 279-252

1944: Dem Win, 283-248

1948: Dem Win, 282-248

1952: Dem Win, 288-243

1956: Dem Win, 287-243

1960: Dem Win, 287-243

1964: Dem Win, 295-233

1968: Dem Win, 295-233

1972: Dem Win, 302-226

1976: Dem Win, 302-226

1980: Dem Win, 302-226

1984: Dem Win, 315-213

1988: Dem Win, 315-213

1992: Dem Win, 328-200

1996: Dem Win, 328-200

2000: Dem Win, 328-200

2004: Dem Win, 337-191

That is different from the Gore-Bush result in that the Gore-Bush division was fairly close evrey time, regardless of year, whereas the Hughes-Wilson states would be a landslide for Wilson today.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2004, 08:34:46 PM »


Well, so did I when I made my first private analysis...I guess most forum members are scaringly similar when it comes to these things... Smiley


We're all undeniably weird.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #15 on: February 13, 2004, 08:38:52 PM »


Well, so did I when I made my first private analysis...I guess most forum members are scaringly similar when it comes to these things... Smiley


We're all undeniably weird.


Yep, I'm afraid so... Wink
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2004, 11:36:28 PM »

1996 is a boring scenario:

2004, 2008:           D 376-167
1992, 1996, 2000: D 379-159
1984, 1988:           D 383-155
1972, 1976, 1980: D 374-164
1964, 1968:           D 386-152
1952, 1956, 1960: D 378-153
1944, 1948:           D 377-154
1932, 1936, 1940: D 383-148
1924, 1928:           D 368-153
1912, 1916, 1920: D 368-153
1904, 1908:           D 333-143
1892, 1896, 1900: D 311-136

Dems win every election handily.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2004, 11:43:36 PM »

Working on the 1976 election now:

2004: D 299-239
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #18 on: February 13, 2004, 11:48:05 PM »

2000, 1996, 1992: D 292-246
1988, 1984:           D 294-244
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #19 on: February 13, 2004, 11:59:53 PM »

1972, 1976, 1980: D 297-241
1964, 1968:  D 302-236
1952, 1956, 1960: 304-227
1944, 1948: D 311-220
1932, 1936, 1940: D 311-220
1924, 1928: D 319-212
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Gustaf
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« Reply #20 on: February 14, 2004, 07:55:38 AM »

1996 is a boring scenario:

2004, 2008:           D 376-167
1992, 1996, 2000: D 379-159
1984, 1988:           D 383-155
1972, 1976, 1980: D 374-164
1964, 1968:           D 386-152
1952, 1956, 1960: D 378-153
1944, 1948:           D 377-154
1932, 1936, 1940: D 383-148
1924, 1928:           D 368-153
1912, 1916, 1920: D 368-153
1904, 1908:           D 333-143
1892, 1896, 1900: D 311-136

Dems win every election handily.

It usually has to be a pretty close election if you are to have any real changes over time.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #21 on: February 14, 2004, 07:56:17 AM »

But 1976 was a close one....and it hasn't changed.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #22 on: February 14, 2004, 07:57:51 AM »

But 1976 was a close one....and it hasn't changed.
Yeah, well, the Carter vote included the South AND the East, which means that Ford could catch him with AZ, CA, etc somewhere in the 2020s, but not if you go back in time.
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