Potomac Primaries.

[Keystone Phil]

Tuesday, February 12th - Washington, DC, Maryland and Virginia


Who are the winners?


DC - Obama
MD - Obama
VA - Very, very close but Hillary

DC - McCain
MD - McCain
VA - McCain

[ottermax]

Don't forget this Saturday! WA, LA, and NE.

[J. J.]

Don't forget this Saturday! WA, LA, and NE.

I think there is a caucus in KA.  I'll say Huckabee for that.  As of next Tuesday, McCain in the GOP Nominee.

Hillary and Obama in a slug fest.

[Keystone Phil]

Don't forget this Saturday! WA, LA, and NE.

Oh, I didn't. I think the 12th will be a bigger deal though.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama takes MD and DC easily.

I don't know if NOLA beats the rural Dems in the South of Virginia though.

But Obama has a huge cash advantage.

[Padfoot]

Isn't NOVA full of really affluent white people?  That's one of Obama's strongest groups.  He's going to be very competitive in VA and he might actually sweep Potomac Tuesday especially if he takes all three states this Saturday.

[Keystone Phil]

Isn't NOVA full of really affluent white people?  That's one of Obama's strongest groups.  He's going to be very competitive in VA and he might actually sweep Potomac Tuesday especially if he takes all three states this Saturday.

I had NOVA in mind when I said it would be very close. Hillary should do well in the rest of the state.

[Lief 🗽]

Isn't NOVA full of really affluent white people?  That's one of Obama's strongest groups.  He's going to be very competitive in VA and he might actually sweep Potomac Tuesday especially if he takes all three states this Saturday.

I had NOVA in mind when I said it would be very close. Hillary should do well in the rest of the state.

The question is whether or not there are more votes in NoVA than the more "Southern" south of the state.

[Eraserhead]

Obama and McCain take all of them.

[Reignman]

Obama/McCain for all of them. Obama'll definitely be going into those contests with a lot of momentum.

[Verily]

Isn't NOVA full of really affluent white people?  That's one of Obama's strongest groups.  He's going to be very competitive in VA and he might actually sweep Potomac Tuesday especially if he takes all three states this Saturday.

I had NOVA in mind when I said it would be very close. Hillary should do well in the rest of the state.

NOVA + 19% black = Obama (Note that nearly all of the Democratic areas in the southeast of the state are plurality black). Not by the enormous margins he'll rack up in Maryland and DC, but still definitely Obama is favored.

McCain should win all of them, although honestly the tiny size of the GOP electorate in DC means that it's much less predictable than it should be.

[Eraserhead]

Isn't NOVA full of really affluent white people?  That's one of Obama's strongest groups.  He's going to be very competitive in VA and he might actually sweep Potomac Tuesday especially if he takes all three states this Saturday.

I had NOVA in mind when I said it would be very close. Hillary should do well in the rest of the state.

NOVA + 19% black = Obama (Note that nearly all of the Democratic areas in the southeast of the state are plurality black). Not by the enormous margins he'll rack up in Maryland and DC, but still definitely Obama is favored.

McCain should win all of them, although honestly the tiny size of the GOP electorate in DC means that it's much less predictable than it should be.

Let's hope for a Paul upset in DC.

[Verily]

Petersburg: 79% black
Richmond: 57% black
Hampton: 44% black
Norfolk: 44% black
Newport News: 39% black
Chesapeake: 29% black
Charlottesville: 22% black
Virginia Beach: 18% black

The cities outside of NOVA are really the only Democratic areas. And, as you can see, they are, for the most part, very favorable to Obama. (Chesapeake approximates the demographics of Alabama, which Obama won 56-42.) Clinton could win Charlottesville and should win Virginia Beach, but otherwise Obama will do very well among non-NOVA Democrats.

[Alcon]

DC - Safe Obama
MD - Very Strong Obama
VA - Lean Obama

DC - Strong McCain
MD - Strong McCain
VA - Strong McCain

[Tender Branson]

February - Democrats:

Louisiana: Lean Obama
Nebraska: Obama
Virgin Islands: Obama ?
Washington: Obama
Maine: Clinton ?
DC: Obama
Maryland: Obama
Virginia: Lean Obama
Hawaii: Obama
Wisconsin: Lean Obama

Republicans: McCain wins almost everywhere.

[Verily]

Louisiana: Likely Obama (assuming the black population is still ~30%, which seems reasonable)
Nebraska: Safe Obama (may end up as a Kansas-like blowout)
Washington: Likely Obama (similar to Colorado, honestly)
Virgin Islands: No idea, irrelevant
Maine: Probably depends on who shows up here, maybe lean Clinton based on NH results
DC: Ultra-safe Obama
Maryland: Safe Obama
Virginia: Likely Obama
Hawaii: Likely Obama (not convinced of home state advantage among so many Asians)
Wisconsin: Lean Obama, given the results in Minnesota and a flood of volunteers from Illinois