Landscape for Obama is more favorable from here on

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

I hope the Potomac Primary here next week will put Obama over the top.  I'm a Northern Virginia voter and I'm voting for Obama

[Stranger in a strange land]

Louisiana voted for Bill Clinton twice.

as did more than half the states in the country. ZOMFG!!!

[Joe Republic]

I hope the Potomac Primary here next week will put Obama over the top.  I'm a Northern Virginia voter and I'm voting for Obama

You've dramatically changed your tune:

Obama is a nice guy, but I would never vote for him (or Hillary, for that matter)

I'm a Democrat, but I would NEVER vote for Obama as a presidential candidate.  He is a ONE TERM senator for crying out loud!    And has anyone actually read his book "Audacity of Hope"?  Its pretty shallow, even for a 2-year senator.

Why he has such a wide following is beyond me, really

[Ogre Mage]

I would view the upcoming Democratic Primaries/Caucuses this way --

Feb 9th
Louisiana: Very confusing, Hurricane Katrina has totally changed the demographics and retail issues of the state.  One could guess that Obama has an edge here but I'm not sure.

Nebraska: Strong Obama.  He does well in these mostly white, conservative midwestern states.  Hillary is poison here.

Washington:  Lean Obama.  Washingtonians will ultimately get behind either one in the general but a strong independent streak makes us suspicious of establishment candidates in the primary.  It was one of Dean's best states in 2004.  Obama's organization here is stronger than Clinton's and polls show him consistently ahead.  However, women candidates have been very successful in Washington.  Hillary probably won't win but could limit the size of his victory and subsequent delegate count.

Feb 10th
Maine: Lean Hillary.  Maine also has an independent streak but the large number of working class and older voters tips it in Hillary's favor.  Look for Hillary to try to use Maine as a momentum slower against three probable Obama victories on Feb. 9th.

Feb 12th:
DC: Strong Obama due to the overwhelming African-American presence.

Maryland: Strong Obama.  Same as above, plus a good portion of upper income whites.  It looks tailor-made for him.

Virginia: Lean Obama.  Virginia has many of the same qualities as Maryland but a significant number of rural whites gives Hillary a decent shot.  However, the VA Democratic Party establishment seems to prefer Obama over Clinton.  He is endorsed by Gov. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner's wife Lisa.  As with Washington, Hillary is probably looking more to limit his victory rather than win outright.

Feb 19th:
Hawaii: Strong Obama.  Hawaii is to Obama as Arkansas is to Hillary.

Wisconsin: Tossup.  Look for Hillary to make a stand here to slow Obama's momentum from Feb. 12th.  I don't think either side has a strong organizational or demographic advantage.  It might prove to be the purest, even playing field contest.

March 4th:
Ohio:  Lean Hillary.  A modest African-American presence, economic jitters and a large number of working class whites makes this a difficult but not impossible state for Obama.  Gov. Ted Strickland is popular and one of Hillary's earliest supporters.  She and President Clinton campaigned for him several times in 2006.  His machine will go into action on her behalf. 

Rhode Island:  Lean Hillary.  Rhode Island is a Democratic Machine state with large numbers of older voters -- key elements for Clinton to do well.  It also is mostly Catholic which I think has favored Hillary in the past.  Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse has endorsed her.

Texas:  Strong Hillary in the primary, lean Hillary in the caucus.  This is her firewall.  She is extremely well connected with the Democratic establishment here, endorsed by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Rep. Gene Green (D-Texas), Rep. Ruben Hinojosa (D-Texas), Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D-Texas) and Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-Texas).  A large Latino presence gives her a huge advantage.  Obama has to find a way to limit his losses in this large, delegate rich state.  It has some similarities to California but lacks the upper class latte liberals which helped him in the Golden State.

Vermont:  Lean Obama.  The one bright spot for Obama on March 4th.  Vermont is a state with large numbers of upscale independent liberals, which plays straight to Obama's best demographics.  Senator Patrick Leahy has endorsed him.

[MarkWarner08]

Ohio is a must-win for Obama. If he loses TX, OH, and RI on Mar. 4th, there will be calls for him to leave the race.

[Gabu]

Ohio is a must-win for Obama. If he loses TX, OH, and RI on Mar. 4th, there will be calls for him to leave the race.

Even if he has more delegates at the end of the day?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think such a thing is theoretically possible.

[Gustaf]

Ohio is a must-win for Obama. If he loses TX, OH, and RI on Mar. 4th, there will be calls for him to leave the race.

Even if he has more delegates at the end of the day?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think such a thing is theoretically possible.

The media still spins state wins more than delegates. Too bad if one likes Obama but I agree with MarkWarner. At the very least he needs to do honourably in those states.

I may do a list later on of these states, but for now, if Obama could not win MA with the Governor, both senators and the Kennedys behind him, how does he win RI exactly? I don't see it.

[Platypus]

Ohio is a must-win for Obama. If he loses TX, OH, and RI on Mar. 4th, there will be calls for him to leave the race.

Even if he has more delegates at the end of the day?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think such a thing is theoretically possible.

The media still spins state wins more than delegates. Too bad if one likes Obama but I agree with MarkWarner. At the very least he needs to do honourably in those states.

I may do a list later on of these states, but for now, if Obama could not win MA with the Governor, both senators and the Kennedys behind him, how does he win RI exactly? I don't see it.

He has a month to make Clinton irrelevant.

[Gustaf]

Ohio is a must-win for Obama. If he loses TX, OH, and RI on Mar. 4th, there will be calls for him to leave the race.

Even if he has more delegates at the end of the day?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think such a thing is theoretically possible.

The media still spins state wins more than delegates. Too bad if one likes Obama but I agree with MarkWarner. At the very least he needs to do honourably in those states.

I may do a list later on of these states, but for now, if Obama could not win MA with the Governor, both senators and the Kennedys behind him, how does he win RI exactly? I don't see it.

He has a month to make Clinton irrelevant.

Yeah, that's his chance, basically.

[MarkWarner08]

Ohio is a must-win for Obama. If he loses TX, OH, and RI on Mar. 4th, there will be calls for him to leave the race.

Even if he has more delegates at the end of the day?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think such a thing is theoretically possible.

The media still spins state wins more than delegates. Too bad if one likes Obama but I agree with MarkWarner. At the very least he needs to do honourably in those states.

I may do a list later on of these states, but for now, if Obama could not win MA with the Governor, both senators and the Kennedys behind him, how does he win RI exactly? I don't see it.

Obama has four shots at the nomination. His first shot was to notch a huge follow-up win in NH; Hillary beat him there. His second shot was to beat Hillary in one  of the big Super Tuesday states (NJ, CA, MA), such a win would've been seen as a major blow to Clinton. Instead, Clinton beat him in all the big swing states.

His next chance to score an impressive victory is on Feb. 5th. If he defeats Hillary in OH or TX, he will have a strong claim at the nomination. A victory in both should be a knockout blow. However, even if he has a slight delegate lead going into Mar 4th, a substantial loss in OH and TX could and should end the race.

If Obama survives Mar. 4th, he'll have to overcome the Rendell/Nutter machine in Pennsylvania. He'll probably lose SEPA, Pittsburgh, and he won't enjoy a huge margin in Philly,either. If he somehow wins PA, he should be the nominee.

[Sam Spade]

Ohio is a must-win for Obama. If he loses TX, OH, and RI on Mar. 4th, there will be calls for him to leave the race.

Even if he has more delegates at the end of the day?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think such a thing is theoretically possible.

The media still spins state wins more than delegates. Too bad if one likes Obama but I agree with MarkWarner. At the very least he needs to do honourably in those states.

I may do a list later on of these states, but for now, if Obama could not win MA with the Governor, both senators and the Kennedys behind him, how does he win RI exactly? I don't see it.

Obama has four shots at the nomination. His first shot was to notch a huge follow-up win in NH; Hillary beat him there. His second shot was to beat Hillary in one  of the big Super Tuesday states (NJ, CA, MA), such a win would've been seen as a major blow to Clinton. Instead, Clinton beat him in all the big swing states.

His next chance to score an impressive victory is on Feb. 5th. If he defeats Hillary in OH or TX, he will have a strong claim at the nomination. A victory in both should be a knockout blow. However, even if he has a slight delegate lead going into Mar 4th, a substantial loss in OH and TX could and should end the race.

If Obama survives Mar. 4th, he'll have to overcome the Rendell/Nutter machine in Pennsylvania. He'll probably lose SEPA, Pittsburgh, and he won't enjoy a huge margin in Philly,either. If he somehow wins PA, he should be the nominee.

If Obama loses SE PA, he'll get massacred in PA generally...  That area is his one hope there...

There is a black population in Pittsburgh (not huge, but it's not unimportant), but it'll get swallowed up by the areas around it.

[MarkWarner08]

If Obama loses SE PA, he'll get massacred in PA generally... 

Maybe I'm overestimating Rendell's influence in SEPA, but I don't see a strong majority of voters there picking Obama over Rendell and Clinton.

[Sam Spade]

If Obama loses SE PA, he'll get massacred in PA generally... 

Maybe I'm overestimating Rendell's influence in SEPA, but I don't see a strong majority of voters there picking Obama over Rendell and Clinton.

The PA suburbs (the usual suspects Chester, Delaware, MontCo, Bucks), with the upper-income, socially moderate beliefs should be his strongest area, outside black Philly and Pittsburgh and the Centre College area.

The problem is that PA is a closed primary, and many of these upper-income people still have their Republican registration, as Phil would tell us many times.  So they simply won't be able to vote for him.  And who has the Dem registrations in their strongholds - west PA and northeast PA - where he's likely to get massacred.

Rendell has his strength down there, but I would be more concerned about him jamming up black Philadelphia for the Clintons, somehow...

It's just a bad, bad situation.  Much worse than Texas or Ohio, IMHO.

[MarkWarner08]

If Obama loses SE PA, he'll get massacred in PA generally... 

Maybe I'm overestimating Rendell's influence in SEPA, but I don't see a strong majority of voters there picking Obama over Rendell and Clinton.

The PA suburbs (the usual suspects Chester, Delaware, MontCo, Bucks), with the upper-income, socially moderate beliefs should be his strongest area, outside black Philly and Pittsburgh and the Centre College area.

The problem is that PA is a closed primary, and many of these upper-income people still have their Republican registration, as Phil would tell us many times.  So they simply won't be able to vote for him.  And who has the Dem registrations in their strongholds - west PA and northeast PA - where he's likely to get massacred.

Rendell has his strength down there, but I would be more concerned about him jamming up black Philadelphia for the Clintons, somehow...

It's just a bad, bad situation.  Much worse than Texas or Ohio, IMHO.

All of this contributes to my view that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee. If Obama wins in OH and narrowly loses in TX, could he win in PA? They seems to be his only reasonable path to victory.

That those mainline Republicans who'd vote for him are blocked by party rules, could be end his chances in PA. I see Pennsylvania as the final stop for the Obama express.

[Bacon King]

If PA was an open primary, I think it'd be worse for Obama. You'd have thousands of crossovers from the Republicans who would vote Hillary just because she'd be a weaker opponent in the general election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If PA was an open primary, I think it'd be worse for Obama. You'd have thousands of crossovers from the Republicans who would vote Hillary just because she'd be a weaker opponent in the general election.

Most people don't think strategically in that way when they vote. They just vote for whoever they prefer.

[agcatter]

Clinton wins Pennsylvania and Ohio by 15 pts each.  That's a lot of delegates.  In Texas Obama may come within 10 if he runs hard here.  Again, a lot of delegates.  West Virginia and Kentucky are states that Obama will be lucky to come within 20 points.

Obama has to sweep in February and take 65% of the delegates in order to withstand what is coming in March and April.  That's a VERY tall order.

It's uphill.

[Flying Dog]

Clinton wins Pennsylvania and Ohio by 15 pts each.  That's a lot of delegates.  In Texas Obama may come within 10 if he runs hard here.  Again, a lot of delegates.  West Virginia and Kentucky are states that Obama will be lucky to come within 20 points.

Obama has to sweep in February and take 65% of the delegates in order to withstand what is coming in March and April.  That's a VERY tall order.

It's uphill.

Who's been drinking the Clinton Kool-aid.

[Sam Spade]

If Obama loses SE PA, he'll get massacred in PA generally... 

Maybe I'm overestimating Rendell's influence in SEPA, but I don't see a strong majority of voters there picking Obama over Rendell and Clinton.

The PA suburbs (the usual suspects Chester, Delaware, MontCo, Bucks), with the upper-income, socially moderate beliefs should be his strongest area, outside black Philly and Pittsburgh and the Centre College area.

The problem is that PA is a closed primary, and many of these upper-income people still have their Republican registration, as Phil would tell us many times.  So they simply won't be able to vote for him.  And who has the Dem registrations in their strongholds - west PA and northeast PA - where he's likely to get massacred.

Rendell has his strength down there, but I would be more concerned about him jamming up black Philadelphia for the Clintons, somehow...

It's just a bad, bad situation.  Much worse than Texas or Ohio, IMHO.

All of this contributes to my view that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee. If Obama wins in OH and narrowly loses in TX, could he win in PA? They seems to be his only reasonable path to victory.

That those mainline Republicans who'd vote for him are blocked by party rules, could be end his chances in PA. I see Pennsylvania as the final stop for the Obama express.

I really don't see how Obama wins in Ohio either, but I'm willing to listen.  I still hold to the view that Texas is more possible than Ohio.  Both are hard.

PA, I suspect, is going to be next to impossible.  The only other big state after that is NC, and that is going to be an close and ugly, ugly, ugly racial contest, if we get to that point.

[agcatter]

Obama could limit the damage in Texas by doing well, running even or slightly ahead in the nightime caucus.

As far as drinking the Clinton koolaid, As a Republican who plans to cross over and vote for Obama against the Hildabeast, I'm just being realistic.

[Torie]

Plus folks in Pennsylvania tend to be old farts, particularly in the western part of the state, and economically stressed and want dough over symbolism. It should be one of Clinton's best states.

[Ogre Mage]

I really don't see how Obama wins in Ohio either, but I'm willing to listen.  I still hold to the view that Texas is more possible than Ohio.  Both are hard.

PA, I suspect, is going to be next to impossible.

I am not sure that Texas is better for Obama than Ohio.  To me, Ohio looks closer to the sort of midwestern state that Obama has done well in, although the demographics and Gov. Stickland's longstanding support of Hillary make it difficult.  Both TX and OH have about an 11% African-American population.  If you look at the Super Tuesday southern states, Obama dominated the ones with a large African-American population (Georgia, Alabama) while Hillary dominated the ones with relatively few blacks (Oklahoma, Tennessee).  His problem in Texas is compounded by the large number of Hispanics.

A good question would be -- is Obama more likely to make inroads with the lower and middle income whites which are the bread and butter of Ohio, or the Latinos in Texas?  I noticed that on Super Tuesday he seemed to be doing somewhat better with white men.  But among Latinos in California Hillary won 69%-29%.

I agree that Pennsylvania is even more Clinton favored than OH or TX.  That is definitely a "strong Hilllary" state. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like I was right with all the pre-March 4 states.

Also, don't make the faulty assumption that all of these races are going to be blowouts - Clinton was maximizing resources this time around in certain places - we'll see whether she does so down the line.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like I was right with all the pre-March 4 states.

Yes, but for the wrong reasons (mostly).

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like I was right with all the pre-March 4 states.

Also, don't make the faulty assumption that all of these races are going to be blowouts - Clinton was maximizing resources this time around in certain places - we'll see whether she does so down the line.

Get over yourself. Seriously.