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Author Topic: The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!  (Read 32558 times)
Erc
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« on: February 07, 2008, 05:59:26 pm »
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In this thread, I'll be keeping a running tally of the delegates, and, as before, explaining upcoming contests and projecting delegate counts.

StateClintonObamaSuper (Clinton)Super (Obama)Super (Uncommitted) + EdwardsTotal
Iowa15263112 + 057
New Hampshire99381 + 030
Michigan34.529.53.57478.5
Nevada111423434
South Carolina12252141 + 054
Florida52.533.54.58.55 + 1.5105.5
Georgia2760492102
Alabama252732360
Connecticut2226210060
Delaware6924223
Illinois491040283184
Massachusetts553811134121
Missouri363656588
New Jersey59481253127
Oklahoma241415448
Tennessee402864785
Kansas92316241
Arkansas278110147
Arizona312545267
Minnesota2448310388
New Mexico141265138
New York139934612281
North Dakota5807121
Colorado193647470
Idaho31504123
Utah91413229
Alaska31014018
California204166312812441
American Samoa1.51.54209
Virgin Islands032319
Nebraska81606131
Washington265278497
Louisiana233343467
Maine91515232
Virginia2954576101
D.C.312913239
Maryland28421012699
Wisconsin3242212492
Hawai'i61427029
Democrats Abroad2.54.51.52.5011
Vermont6915223
Rhode Island13882233
Ohio7467669162
Texas959814138228
Wyoming5715018
Mississippi132005341
Pennsylvania85731766187
Guam222309
North Carolina48673106134
Indiana383457185
West Virginia20834439
Kentucky371432460
Oregon213128365
Puerto Rico381742263
South Dakota8706223
Montana7904525
"Unassigned"000022
Total16351736288.5387169 + 1.54233

Obama has clinched the nomination.

Recent Updates: (Superdelegates are generally updated daily).
6/3: SD results added, 1 Edwards At-Large delegate from Obama to Clinton (to be conservative)
6/2: PR results added, 6 Edwards FL delegates back to Edwards, Pelosi Club removed from Obama.
5/31: MI/FL ruling included.

Italicized States represent Caucus/Convention states that have not yet finished their processes.  As a result, their final delegate counts may be slightly different than those listed here.  A few of these are especially prone to change:

TX:  There are a form of local 'superdelegates' at the state convention (though they only form about 1.6% of delegates), which could have an effect.  Additionally, Obama is challenging results from Bexar and El Paso counties that may swing enough support his way to make the caucus result 38 - 29, not 37 - 30.
IA: Obama will likely gain a delegate from Clinton, assuming he gets a large majority of Edwards' supporters.
ID: Clinton is on the verge of losing viability statewide, so she may lose her one statewide delegate to Obama if enough of her supporters fail to arrive at the convention in Boise.

Notes:  Edwards still has 19 pledged delegates (8 in SC, 4 in NH, 4 and perhaps 3 more in IA)--plus 13 half-delegates in Florida.  With his recent endorsement of Obama, I am giving two of his At-Large Iowa delegates to Obama, and the third to Clinton [although, most likely, all three will go to Obama].  Of his named pledged delegates, all but 3 Florida delegates have endorsed Obama.

Although the Michigan delegate selection process may yet have its hurdles, I will assume that 59 delegates will be seated for Obama, as prescribed by the DNC.  Hillary may yet challenge the ruling on MI, but the five-delegate difference is not large enough to change the outcome (Obama has clenched in both scenarios).

The so-called 'Pelosi Club' of superdelegates (currently numbering 5) has pledged itself to vote for the candidate with the lead in pledged delegates at the end of the contest.  Even thoiugh Obama has now won the majority of pledged delegates, I consider members of the 'Pelosi Club' to be Uncommitted until they officially pledge to support Obama, to be conservative.

Timeline of Upcoming Events:

June 3:  Montana, South Dakota Primaries (Details)
June 7:  Texas State Convention
June 14:  Iowa, Idaho, Michigan State Conventions
June 15:  Washington State Convention
June 22: Nebraska State Convention
« Last Edit: June 03, 2008, 09:11:04 pm by Erc »Logged
bullmoose88
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« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2008, 06:07:44 pm »
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aHVRn9HAldqg&refer=us

Interesting article...hearing michigan and florida may do caucuses now...
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« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2008, 07:08:34 pm »
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Good stuff.

Not sure if you are just picking the totals from somewhere, but if you are computing them are you able to see where there are narrowly won delegates or maybe just a count of them?  May be only of academic interest but I think it would be neat to see how many each candidate won just barely.
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2008, 10:18:06 pm »
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Interesting that your estimate is more favorable to Obama than even the Obama campaign.

http://origin.barackobama.com/resultscenter/
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2008, 01:31:49 am »
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Very nice summary. Perhaps the moderators would sticky this.
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2008, 03:30:12 am »
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Assuming Edwards' state delegates in Iowa split 2:1 for Obama, 11 of his estimate delegates would go to Obama and 3 to Clinton. Resulting in a total of 27 for Obama and 18 for Clinton.
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« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2008, 06:48:25 am »
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Assuming Edwards' state delegates in Iowa split 2:1 for Obama, 11 of his estimate delegates would go to Obama and 3 to Clinton. Resulting in a total of 27 for Obama and 18 for Clinton.

But is that reasonable? What I've seen so far doesn't really indicate that Edwards supporters break heavily for either candidate.
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« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2008, 11:50:43 am »
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Good work, Erc Smiley

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Clinton 865 pledged / 211 super (1076)

Obama 878 pledged / 137 super (1015)

(Delegate Counts Come From AP, Wash Post, CBS News & RCP)

Most delegates in Colorado yet to be allocated, which will favor Obama

Dave
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« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2008, 11:56:29 am »
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Good work, Erc Smiley

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Clinton 865 pledged / 211 super (1076)

Obama 878 pledged / 137 super (1015)

(Delegate Counts Come From AP, Wash Post, CBS News & RCP)

Most delegates in Colorado yet to be allocated, which will favor Obama

Dave

Great point on Colorado, didn't notice that.  He should pick up a net of maybe 10.  That would give him a lead of 20-25 pledge delegates going into tonight's primaries.
Very nice indeed
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Erc
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« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2008, 12:47:35 am »
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Updated given (preliminary) 2/9 results.
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« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2008, 05:04:12 am »
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Updated Delegate Estimate:

Base: RCP

Clinton: 1.112 Total Delegates so far (incl. 211 SD) => 901 Pledged Delegates
Obama: 1.096 Total Delegates so far (incl. 137 SD) => 959 Pledged Delegates

Future States Obama will win incl. their number of pledged delegates:

Hawaii (20), Oregon (52), Montana (16), Wyoming (12), South Dakota (15), Wisconsin (74), Mississippi (33), Indiana (72), North Carolina (115), Virginia (83), DC (15), Maryland (70), Maine (24) and Vermont (15).

Total Pledged Delegates: 616 - Obama estimated to receive 55% and Clinton 45% = 339/277

Future States Clinton will win incl. their number of pledged delegates:

Texas (193), Kentucky (51), Ohio (141), West Virginia (28), Pennsylvania (158), Rhode Island (21), Guam (4) and Puerto Rico (55).

Total Pledged Delegates: 651 - Clinton estimated to receive 55% and Obama 45% = 358/293

So from now on, Clinton will receive 635 delegates, Obama 632.

New total among pledged:

Obama: 959 + 632 = 1.591
Clinton: 901 + 635 = 1.536

Super-Delegates-Estimate (796):

Clinton: 448
Obama: 348

Total Delegates as of June 7, 2008:

Clinton: 1.536 + 448 = 1.984
Obama: 1.591 + 348 = 1.939
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« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2008, 12:04:05 pm »
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RCP base as of Sunday at noon

Clinton  1121  Super Delegates 211  Pledge Delegates  910
Obama 1118  Super Delegates 137  Pledge Delegates   981

Clinton +3 overall due to +74 lead in Super delegates

Obama +71 in Pledge delegates

He is starting to really surge

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Erc
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« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2008, 12:54:56 pm »
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Added details on how the January 12 contests work (Democrats Abroad, DC, MD, VA), for those interested.

February 10:
Maine:
Closed Caucus
34 Delegates
--16 by District
--8 At-Large
--10 Unpledged

The caucuses are electing delegates to the State Convention (May 31), which selects Maine's delegates to the National Convention.

District Delegates:  9 for CD 1, 7 for CD 2.
At-Large Delegates: 5 Regular, 3 Pledged PLEO
Unpledged Delegates: 4 DNC Members, 2 Representatives, 1 Governor, 2 Party Leaders (George Mitchell, Kenneth Curtis), 1 Add-On (chosen at State Convention).  2 of these are for Clinton, 8 Uncommitted.

February 12:

District of Columbia:
Closed Primary
38 Delegates
--10 by District
--5 At-Large
--23 Unpledged

District Delegates are assigned 5 per 'district.'  District 1 = Wards 1-4 [N & W: Georgetown, Downtown, etc.]  District 2 = Wards 5 - 8 [S & E]
5 At-Large: 3 Regular, 2 Pledged PLEO
Unpledged Delegates: 17 DNC Members, 1 Representative (DC's delegate to Congress), 2 "Senators," 1 "Governor" (DC's Mayor), 2 'Add-Ons' (of which one is a 'Shadow Representative').
Add-Ons selected April 3, by the State Party Committee.

Maryland:
Closed Primary
99 Delegates
--46 by District
--24 At-Large
--29 Unpledged

District Delegates:
4 for CDs: 6
5 for CDs: 1, 2
6 for CDs: 3, 5, 7
7 for CDs: 4, 8

At-Large Delegates:
--18 DNC Members
--6 Representatives
--2 Senators
--1 Governor
--2 'Add-Ons' (selected May 1, State Democratic Central Committee meeting)

Virginia:
Open Primary
101 Delegates
--54 Delegates
--29 At-Large
--18 Unpledged

District Delegates:
4 for CDs: 1, 2, 5, 6, 9
5 for CDs: 4, 7, 10
6 for CDs: 3, 11
7 for CDs: 8

At-Large Delegates:
18 At-Large
11 Pledged PLEO

Unpledged Delegates:
10 DNC Members
3 Representatives
1 Senator
1 Governor
1 Party Leader (Terry McAuliffe)
2 'Add-Ons' (selected by State Convention, June 12)
« Last Edit: February 12, 2008, 11:56:59 pm by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2008, 01:36:55 pm »
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RCP base as of Sunday at noon

Clinton  1121  Super Delegates 211  Pledge Delegates  910
Obama 1118  Super Delegates 137  Pledge Delegates   981

Clinton +3 overall due to +74 lead in Super delegates

Obama +71 in Pledge delegates

He is starting to really surge



According to CBS, Obama just trails by 2 delegates anymore and 20 are still left to be allocated in Washington and 30 in Colorado ...

http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/d_delegateScorecard.shtml
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« Reply #14 on: February 10, 2008, 01:40:27 pm »
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They also don't have the USVI's delegates on there, which would put Obama in the lead by a single delegate.
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« Reply #15 on: February 10, 2008, 01:42:36 pm »
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Making up the +74 super delegate lead in an election this close before the Potomac primaries is very big. 

If he has a big night with the Potomac primaries, it will be difficult for her to overtake him in pledge delegates even if she wins OH and TX
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« Reply #16 on: February 10, 2008, 01:44:30 pm »
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And I just noticed: they have the same miscalculation in Idaho as everyone else. Clinton failed viability in Ada County, and therefore both statewide and in ID-02. She gets only 1 delegate from Idaho, not 3.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2008, 04:11:25 pm »
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It's funny how much various organizations are screwing up the counting of delegates. One common mistake is to hear that American Samoa has 3 delegates, and give Clinton 2 and Obama 1, without realizing that there are actually 6 delegates, each worth half a vote.
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Erc
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« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2008, 09:49:55 pm »
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It's funny how much various organizations are screwing up the counting of delegates. One common mistake is to hear that American Samoa has 3 delegates, and give Clinton 2 and Obama 1, without realizing that there are actually 6 delegates, each worth half a vote.

I've heard conflicting reports as to the territories' superdelegates:  do they get full or half votes?  (or even, as I've heard strange reports of, some mix of full and quarter delegates in American Samoa).

Update in for Maine:
Obama won big in CD 1 [6 - 3] and won in CD 2 [4 - 3], giving him a very healthy delegate lead there (gains a margin of +6 delegates)
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« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2008, 09:53:39 pm »
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Interestingly, Obama's "leaked" memo once again (drastically) underestimated his perfomance.
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« Reply #20 on: February 10, 2008, 09:55:58 pm »
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So Obama has taken the lead w/ supers even factored in, correct?
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« Reply #21 on: February 10, 2008, 09:56:57 pm »
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So Obama has taken the lead w/ supers even factored in, correct?

Yes (although actually he had after yesterday).
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« Reply #22 on: February 10, 2008, 09:58:32 pm »
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Interestingly, Obama's "leaked" memo once again (drastically) underestimated his perfomance.

Deliberately perhaps. I don't see him doing that bad in the three Tuesday states either.
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« Reply #23 on: February 10, 2008, 09:59:09 pm »
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Aren't there still some delegates that haven't been factored in still from Colorado and another state?
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« Reply #24 on: February 10, 2008, 10:17:13 pm »
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The Obama campaign had him up in the pledged delegate count 910-882 after Super Tuesday.  He won Louisiana 34-22, Nebraska 16-8, Virgin Islands 3-0 and was up in Washington 43-15 with 20 delegates still to be allocated and won maine 15-9.  that puts Obama up 1021-936 with 20 delegates from Washington still outstanding.   Considering his current 43-15 margin in Washington if the breakout is similar to what is known Obama wins the remaining Washington delegates 14-6 or 15-5.  So he pretty much sets himself with about a 1035-942 or 1036-941 margin heading into the Primaries on Tuesday.
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