The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Erc]

It doesn't make sense that in your scenario II.V, the number of Michigan delegates aren't also chopped in half, like Florida.

Well, it wasn't clear at the time I came up with the scenario that it would be chopped in half.  New results given the new ruling are imminent.

[Meeker]

As I mentioned in the other thread, take into account the resignation of Al Wynn. Minus one from Obama and one overall.

[Erc]

Although the media has reported that at least of 8 of the 13 Edwards delegates have endorsed Obama, there's been no official confirmation of this from the delegates themselves.

To be conservative, therefore, I'm switching 6 of the FL Edwards delegates back from Obama to Edwards.

After Puerto Rico, the situation stands thusly (including MT/SD superdelegates):

Obama 2080.5
Clinton 1914
Uncommitted 198
Yet to Vote 31
Edwards 9.5

The magic number after the MI/FL ruling is 2117...only 37 delegates away for Obama, now.

Obama will pick up at least 17 delegates in MT & SD, putting him only 20 delegates away, out of the over 200 remaining superdelegates / Edwards delegates.

[Erc]

South Dakota
Closed Primary
9 PM EDT Poll Closing
23 Delegates
--15 At-Large
--8 Unpledged

Polls close at 7 PM local everywhere in the state--i.e. 8 PM EDT in the eastern (CDT) half of the state, and 9 PM EDT in the western (MDT) half of the state.

At-Large Delegates:
--9 by "District"
--4 At-Large
--2 Pledged PLEO

Unpledged Delegates:
--4 DNC Members (3 Obama, 1 Uncommitted)
--1 Representative (Herseth-Sandlin, for Obama)
--1 Senator (Johnson, for Obama)
--1 Distinguished Party Leader (Daschle, for Obama)
--1 'Add-On' (selected by State Party Central Committee, June 21)


Montana
Open Primary
10 PM EDT Poll Closing
25 Delegates
--10 District
--6 At-Large
--9 Unpledged

District Delegates:
The 10 District delegates are chosen by the "old" CD boundaries from the 1980 census (when MT had two CDs), 5 delegates each.  One roughly corresponds to the eastern half of the state, the other to the western.

At-Large Delegates:
--4 At-Large
--2 Pledged PLEOs

Unpledged Delegates:
--5 DNC Members (3 Obama, 2 Uncommitted)
--2 Senators (both Uncommitted)
--1 Governor (Uncommitted)
--1 Add-On (selected at the State Convention, June

There is an official proscription in MT party rules against endorsing a candidate before the election, hence the lack of endorsements now.  At least one DNC member officially listed as Uncommitted now withdrew her endorsement of Obama due to this rule.

[Verily]

Interesting; that might explain the Baucus window sign. It also will probably help Obama reach the magic number immediately after the election. (How did three DNC members get away with endorsing Obama already, then?)

[Erc]

(How did three DNC members get away with endorsing Obama already, then?)

Looking over the original story again, it may just be for party leaders in the state...the affected superdelegate was the vice chairwoman of the state party---while on the same day she retracted her endorsement, a national committeewoman from MT endorsed Obama.

Original Story

So we can expect at least one (if not more) endorsements for Obama out of MT after Tuesday night.

[There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease]

So really, Obama likely already has all the delegates he needs (or more specifically will once SD and MT vote) and he'll release them all that night. And he might've already informed Hillary of this, hence her recent actions looking toward dropping out.

Maybe now we can put an end to J. J.'s "If this scenario with an approx. 0.52% of happening were to occur it would be a problem for Obama so he's in big trouble." posts.

[Erc]

In order to clinch tomorrow, Obama will need an additional 14 superdelegates.  That isn't an insignificant number for a one-day period, but it's not insurmountable either.

If he actually does have some in his back pocket, then it might be easier...but tomorrow evening might be an awkward time to do so.  (Remember, the polls don't close in Montana until 10 EDT, and pulling out his 10 Senators then is rubbing it in Clinton's face).

My bet is, there'll be around 7 endorsements tomorrow, a bit more than today, but not enough to clinch.  Hillary will make a speech that is all but a concession, and the major endorsements will come out on Wednesday, when he'll clinch.

[Erc]

Looking over what's being said, it does in fact look as if Obama will clinch tomorrow (or the Obama camp is lying for no good reason).

McCaskill's said she's talked to at least 10 uncommitteds who will be endorsing tomorrow.

14 (or whatever it happens to be for the media to count it as a clinch) is not a huge number, and, as long as it is the SD & MT pledged votes that puts him over the top, that's a pretty good way to go out.

[Erc]

Major differences that could exist between my count and the media's:

The "Pelosi Club"--the 6 delegates that said they would endorse the pledged delegate leader, but who haven't officially endorsed Obama yet.  Obama has already clinched a majority of pledged delegates, so they should by all rights be in Obama's camp, but they might not be considered so by the media.

Edwards delegates in Florida: MSNBC says 9 of these have switched to Obama, I only say 2 of them have switched.  There's also a concern that the Florida Edwards delegates may have to be rechosen as a result of Saturday's ruling, it's not clear yet.  As a result, DCW doesn't even count the 2 that have endorsed for Obama, due to the possibility of such an occurrence.

Edwards delegates in Iowa:  Edwards has enough support to get 3 pledged delegates At-Large in Iowa.  However, as he has dropped out of the race and is encouraging his supporters to throw their weight to Obama on June 14, I have given these 3 delegates to Obama (even if a large number still support Clinton or fail to show, Obama will still get at least two of these, anyway).

That Pledged Delegate in Maryland: I consider him to have switched (by adjusting the superdelegate counts up one for Obama and down one for Clinton, not by switching a pledged delegate).  The campaigns and the media sources may not.  The pledged delegate in DC appears to have switched back, so I won't count him.

I'm going to be conservative here and agree with the media and DCW that I probably shouldn't automatically give the Pelosi Club to Obama.  The rest, though, I'm convinced of and will not be changing.

[There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease]

The Pelosi club are probably going to be declaring for Obama tommorow.

[Erc]

I'm using DemConWatch for my superdelegate figures, as always.

They are now reporting that over 10 superdelegates are ready to endorse this evening or early tomorrow:

Jimmy Carter [GA] ("after the polls close this evening")
Jerry McNerney [CA] ("this evening")
Ralph Dawson [NY] (listed by Clyburn)
Ken Salazar [CO] ("today or tomorrow")
Bill Ritter [CO] ("today or tomorrow")
Brian Schweitzer ("today or tomorrow")
Jon Tester ("today or tomorrow")
Max Baucus ("today or tomorrow")
Margaret Campbell (discussed earlier in this thread)

plus the last SC Edwards delegate, Tim Moore, also mentioned by Clyburn.

These, plus the additional 5 Pelosi Club delegates, and the 17 delegates Obama will pick up from SD/MT tonight, ensure that Obama has now mathematically clinched the nomination.

Congratulations, Sen. Obama.

I'll continue to update the OP with endorsements today and give some further announcements at further "clinching milestones" for Obama.

[BushKenya]

I'm using DemConWatch for my superdelegate figures, as always.

They are now reporting that over 10 superdelegates are ready to endorse this evening or early tomorrow:

Jimmy Carter [GA] ("after the polls close this evening")
Jerry McNerney [CA] ("this evening")
Ralph Dawson [NY] (listed by Clyburn)
Ken Salazar [CO] ("today or tomorrow")
Bill Ritter [CO] ("today or tomorrow")
Brian Schweitzer ("today or tomorrow")
Jon Tester ("today or tomorrow")
Max Baucus ("today or tomorrow")
Margaret Campbell (discussed earlier in this thread)

plus the last SC Edwards delegate, Tim Moore, also mentioned by Clyburn.

These, plus the additional 5 Pelosi Club delegates, and the 17 delegates Obama will pick up from SD/MT tonight, ensure that Obama has now mathematically clinched the nomination.

Congratulations, Sen. Obama.

I'll continue to update the OP with endorsements today and give some further announcements at further "clinching milestones" for Obama.

The same website says 27 delegates left with 2,117 being the magic number.  Am I missing something, here.

[Meeker]

Yea, what are the two you have that DWC doesn't?

[BushKenya]

MSNBC is down to 23.5 while CNN is still at 30.

[Erc]

There are a number of differences between DCW & my count, mainly in the pledged delegate count.

The largest part of the 2.5-delegate difference is likely due to our different treatments of Edwards' At-Large delegates in Iowa.  I've awarded them to Obama (as Edwards supporters in Iowa have made it clear they're voting for Obama) but, since they haven't technically been chosen yet, other sources may list them as still being for Edwards.  I find that to be a poor decision on their part--it's clear at this point that Edwards won't be making viability in Iowa, and even should a fair fraction of them caucus for Clinton, Obama is guaranteed at least 2 of those 3 delegates, and I currently project him to receive all 3.

The other two differences are minor:

In American Samoa, I have a 1.5 - 1.5 delegate split, while the Green Papers has a 2 - 1 split for Clinton.  By all rights, it should be 1.5 - 1.5, so I don't know why the Green Papers is getting their figure.

In D.C., I am not recognizing the pledged delegate switch by Jack Evans from Clinton to Obama, as he retracted his statement 2-3 days after making it.  The Green Papers links to his retraction, but apparently doesn't factor it into their count.


Net Differences:
Iowa Edwards At-Large:  Obama +3
American Samoa: Obama +.5
DC Pledged: Obama -1

Total: Obama +2.5

[Erc]

With the rollout of Edwards pledged delegate endorsements, Obama now only needs 14.5 delegates to clinch the nomination.

Given that he will not be blown away in both states tonight, Obama will certainly get 14.5 delegates in the remaining states.

As a result, Obama is now guaranteed the nomination.  The "% Superdelegates needed for Clinton to win" figure that I've been keeping track of for a while is now over 100%, both for the status quo and even if the 69 - 59 ruling in MI is successfully appealed.

Clinton can no longer win, barring a complete overturning of the MI/FL ruling from Saturday that fully seats both MI & FL.

[Erc]

For the purposes of being conservative (though I feel like an idiot doing so), I'm moving one of Edwards' At-Large delegates from Obama to Clinton.

Obama's now only 11.5 delegates away from clinching...if he's not careful and tells his supporters to slow down, he may clinch before the polls close.

[Erc]

With Clinton now beginning to flake off supers, it appears that 292.5 will be her high point in that count.

[Erc]

The 7 delegates Obama will pick up from South Dakota exactly gives him the number of delegates necessary to clinch the nomination.

Congratulations, Sen. Obama.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

This was a wonderful thread. Good work, Erc. What should I give as your contact information to the hiring departments of the news networks?

[Erc]

For the sake of the diehard Clinton enthusiasts / J.J....

Even if Michigan and Florida had been fully seated, with Michigan 74 - 55, Obama would now only be 2.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination, a gap that he'll make up within the hour.

(And you'd have to be insane to think that the credentials committee would let in an Uncommitted delegation from Michigan that isn't overwhelmingly for Obama).

[Lіef]

Thanks so much for making this thread Erc. I know it must have been a lot of work, but it's been so helpful.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Erc, you are the man.

[Erc]

In the last ten minutes, Obama's pulled in about another 12 superdelegates, shutting out the last vain hopes of a Clinton recovery.

This has been a great process, folks.  (Certainly a wonderful distraction from physics, which I'm sure my advisor is grateful for ).  When I started looking at the delegate selection process a couple weeks before Iowa, most people (myself included) figured it would be a waste of time.  For once, it wasn't. 

But thank goodness for the country that it did end tonight...that this campaign, already one of the closest and most divisive in history, finished on the last day of the season (fittingly enough, with a victory for each candidate)--and did not drag on into a pointless summer battle into the Convention.

Historians and political scientists are going to have a field day with this one in the years to come...but for us political junkies, it's time to move on to the next election, the one in November.  (How boring it's going to be, with only one election day!  Don't some of you pine for the days when Maine voted a month early?)  I may return to this thread once or twice before the end of the season (at the very least, for the Iowa and Texas conventions), but there will certainly be no more superdelegate updates.