Feb. 9th and 10th election predictions

[Torie]

Thanks. I didn't know Louisiana had party registration, but it looks like it does. And among Dems it's 44.8% black. I think it's a done deal, unless the figures are stale, and in Orleans parish it looks like they might be. But still  ...

[Alcon]

Ugh.

Louisiana
O 55
C 44

Nebraska
O 64
C 36

Washington
O 59
C 40

Maine
O 50
C 48

[Josh/Devilman88]

Ugh.

Louisiana
O 55
C 44

Nebraska
O 64
C 36

Washington
O 57
C 40

Maine
O 50
C 48

I agree with this but I may switch Maine to C-50 O-48

[Bacon King]

Maine:
C: 55%
O: 44%

Louisiana:
C: 51%
O: 48%

Washington:
O: 60%
C: 39%

Nebraska:
O: 61%
C: 37%

[Ben.]

Maine:
C: 55%
O: 44%

Louisiana:
C: 51%
O: 48%

Washington:
O: 60%
C: 39%

Nebraska:
O: 61%
C: 37%

Obama will lose WA before he loses LA IMHO... in fact i think WA could be fairly close, the Clinton folks sure seem like they think they can get somthing there at any rate.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Louisiana - 58-41 Obama
Nebraska - 70-30 Obama
Washington - 65-35 Obama
Maine - 55-45 Obama

And for fun, the Republican caucus:

Kansas - McCain 52, Huckabee 38, Paul 10

Edit: Missed Washington for the Republicans. McCain 56, Huckabee 30, Paul 14. And didn't they already select delegates in Louisiana?

[Sam Spade]

Thanks. I didn't know Louisiana had party registration, but it looks like it does. And among Dems it's 44.8% black. I think it's a done deal, unless the figures are stale, and in Orleans parish it looks like they might be. But still  ...

So, a 35,000 loss in voters would reduce the black% to 42.3% roughly.  Thanks!

[Sam Spade]

Prediction (more like a guess, but whatever)

Washington
Obama 55%
Clinton 45%

Nebraska
Obama 64%
Clinton 36%

Louisiana
Obama 55%
Clinton 44%
Edwards 1%

Maine
Clinton 53%
Obama 47%

Revised a little - I want to give Edwards the anti-woman, anti-black vote he'll get in Louisiana.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The funny thing about this little set is that they're so unpredictable. Anyhow:

Washington: polls indicate that the primary would be close (which seems surprising but maybe shouldn't be; this is, after all, the state that elected Henry Jackson) and if the people who go to the caucus are representative of Washington Democrats as a whole, then the caucus could be close (but with an edge to Obama all the same). But it is likely, though not quite certain, that the caucus will not be representative and that Obama will win easily.

Nebraska: will probably look more like North Dakota than Kansas, but anything other than an Obama win is pretty much unthinkable.

Louisiana: pre-Katrina an easy Obama win. This might still be the case, but almost everything to do with politics in Louisiana is uncertain now. I say almost everything, because one thing can be guaranteed; the map will be very, very ugly.

Maine: as in Washington the big question concerns how representative caucus-goers will be. I've no idea what the answer to that is, though it's worth remembering that Clinton would win Maine pretty easily if it were a primary.

[Meeker]

Washington

Obama: 61%
Clinton: 38%
Uncommitted: 1%

McCain: 49%
Huckabee: 32%
Paul: 18%
Romney: 2%

Nebraksa

Obama: 57%
Clinton: 43%

Louisiana

Obama: 59%
Clinton: 41%

Huckabee: 50%
McCain: 41%
Paul: 6%
Romney: 3%

Maine

Obama: 53%
Clinton: 47%

Kansas

Huckabee: 48%
McCain: 43%
Paul: 9%

[© tweed]

WA

Obama 59
Clinton 39

LA

Obama 57
Clinton 41

NE

Obama 62
Clinton 36

[Reignman]

Obama and McCain sweep. Only very close state is Maine, where Obama eckes out a victory.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Democrats:
Maine:
Clinton 53
Obama 46

Washington:
Obama 55
Clinton 44

Nebraska:
Obama 60
Clinton 39

Louisiana:
Obama 53
Clinton 46

Republicans:
Louisiana:
Huckabee: 54
McCain: 45

Nebraska:
McCain: 51
Huckabee: 48

[Mr. Morden]

Nebraska:
McCain: 51
Huckabee: 48

It's only the Democrats who caucus in Nebraska today.  Republicans caucus in Kansas and Washington.

Does anyone have any predictions for the Virgin Islands?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nebraska:
McCain: 51
Huckabee: 48

It's only the Democrats who caucus in Nebraska today.  Republicans caucus in Kansas and Washington.

Does anyone have any predictions for the Virgin Islands?

Sure -- I'll say 87-13 Obama.

[Verily]

Nebraska:
McCain: 51
Huckabee: 48

It's only the Democrats who caucus in Nebraska today.  Republicans caucus in Kansas and Washington.

Does anyone have any predictions for the Virgin Islands?

Sure -- I'll say 87-13 Obama.

I'd expect Clinton, but honestly I know next to nothing about the USVI. I'm just basing this off the assumption that the tiny outlying islands all vote similarly (and thus USVI would vote similarly to American Samoa). Race I would imagine is as unimportant in an overwhelmingly black place as it is in an overwhelmingly white place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How did American Samoa vote?

[bgwah]

Nebraska:
McCain: 51
Huckabee: 48

It's only the Democrats who caucus in Nebraska today.  Republicans caucus in Kansas and Washington.

Does anyone have any predictions for the Virgin Islands?

Sure -- I'll say 87-13 Obama.

I'd expect Clinton, but honestly I know next to nothing about the USVI. I'm just basing this off the assumption that the tiny outlying islands all vote similarly (and thus USVI would vote similarly to American Samoa).

Hmm, well, the U.S. Virgin Islands are 76% black while the American Samoa is over 90% Pacific Islander.

[MarkWarner08]

Democrats:
Maine:
Clinton 51
Obama 48

Washington:
Obama 57
Clinton 43

Nebraska:
Obama 56
Clinton 43

Louisiana:
Obama 53
Clinton 45
Misogynist/Racist vote: 2%