Is this how the Democrat Primary race will end up looking?

[exopolitician]

I'm hoping the anti-Hispanic racists in Reading come in for him big. That might help him in a congressional district at least.

Amazing. God forbid if any conservative ever said that. "I want the KKK vote to come out to keep out Obama." We'd be banned. You are filth, kid.


How the hell did my name somehow get entangled in that BS? Kinda curious...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

who do you think is more electable? Obama or Clinton? The polls say Obama's got an edge, but his coalition seems to be latte liberals + blacks... not a majority. What's Obama's winning coalition?

More on this when I'm more awake (and note that I'm a pessimist by nature), but very briefly;

1. Clinton is, as everyone knows, a polarising figure. She will poll quite well with working class whites (better than Obama would and better than Kerry did) but will do badly in the sort of areas that swung to Kerry in 2004. If nominated she won't win by much but, as things stand now, would likely stand a good chance of winning. Electorally speaking, Clinton is actually the "safe" bet. There are additional issues that might crop up after  a long and bitter primary, but people shouldn't pretend that that wouldn't apply to Obama also.

2. the hope with Obama is that he will win via a combination of extremely (relative to previous elections) high black and youth turnout and his apparent appeal to non-affliated voters and disaffected Republicans. The hope is that the working class white and hispanic backlash against him will either not happen or will be small and that the Bradley Effect is dead. The issue here is one of faith as much as anything else.

It's fairly obvious from the way I wrote that that I don't "believe" and I'll try to explain why tomorrow.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

who do you think is more electable? Obama or Clinton? The polls say Obama's got an edge, but his coalition seems to be latte liberals + blacks... not a majority. What's Obama's winning coalition?

More on this when I'm more awake (and note that I'm a pessimist by nature), but very briefly;

1. Clinton is, as everyone knows, a polarising figure. She will poll quite well with working class whites (better than Obama would and better than Kerry did) but will do badly in the sort of areas that swung to Kerry in 2004. If nominated she won't win by much but, as things stand now, would likely stand a good chance of winning. Electorally speaking, Clinton is actually the "safe" bet. There are additional issues that might crop up after  a long and bitter primary, but people shouldn't pretend that that wouldn't apply to Obama also.

2. the hope with Obama is that he will win via a combination of extremely (relative to previous elections) high black and youth turnout and his apparent appeal to non-affliated voters and disaffected Republicans. The hope is that the working class white and hispanic backlash against him will either not happen or will be small and that the Bradley Effect is dead. The issue here is one of faith as much as anything else.

It's fairly obvious from the way I wrote that that I don't "believe" and I'll try to explain why tomorrow.

It's not faith, the polls show that he polls better.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not faith, the polls show that he polls better.

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And other stuff linking to that (ie; unless I've misread him completely, McCain is going to be dog-whistling like there's no tomorrow if Obama is the Democratic candidate). Like I said, I'm a pessimist, like I said, I'll try to explain my pessimism tomorrow.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm hoping the anti-Hispanic racists in Reading come in for him big. That might help him in a congressional district at least.

Amazing. God forbid if any conservative ever said that. "I want the KKK vote to come out to keep out Obama." We'd be banned. You are filth, kid.

I'm glad anti-Hispanic racists are voting for Obama, because they are voting for Obama, and I support people voting for my candidate for any reason. As long as he doesn't pander to the bigots directly, I'm not going to complain about getting votes. Hell, at least Obama isn't pandering to anti-Hispanic racists directly, as opposed to Hillary directly targeting anti-black racists.

[J. J.]

Obama will lose PA.  VA, WA and OR are also possible losses.

I don't think Obama will win PA (unless the nomination is in the bag at that point which seems unlikely) but he will do better in PA than Clinton will in either WA or VA

I expect him to do a lot worse.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm hoping the anti-Hispanic racists in Reading come in for him big. That might help him in a congressional district at least.

Amazing. God forbid if any conservative ever said that. "I want the KKK vote to come out to keep out Obama." We'd be banned. You are filth, kid.

I'm glad anti-Hispanic racists are voting for Obama, because they are voting for Obama, and I support people voting for my candidate for any reason. As long as he doesn't pander to the bigots directly, I'm not going to complain about getting votes. Hell, at least Obama isn't pandering to anti-Hispanic racists directly, as opposed to Hillary directly targeting anti-black racists.

But using your logic (even though it's complete BS because people aren't voting for Obama because the group they hate wants Hillary), you appreciate their racism.

[Bacon King]

I think Obama has a better shot at Ohio than most people on the forum do. 

Well, true, but most people on the forum aren't running for the Democratic nomination.

[Verily]

Switch Maine and Rhode Island, and switch Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[Padfoot]

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No. Really, really, no.

Missouri and Ohio are both about 87% white and 12% black with less than 2% each Asians and Hispanics.  How much more similarity do you want?

[Smash255]

Obama will lose PA.  VA, WA and OR are also possible losses.

I don't think Obama will win PA (unless the nomination is in the bag at that point which seems unlikely) but he will do better in PA than Clinton will in either WA or VA

I expect him to do a lot worse.

My guess would put VA in the 20% range for Obama (large African American population + very highly educated population in NOVA), Washington he wins by 15-18% (he cleans house in liberal seattle).  PA Clinton wins by 10-12% or so.  She wins big with working class and older voters, Obama is strong in Philly proper and very competitive if not winning some of the Philly suburbs (well educated voters).   As the campaign goes on & Obama gets more well known in the state, he chips at her margin.  Not enough to win the state, but enough to put the state somewhere in the range of New Jersey's margin.

[Downwinder]

IMO, you should also shade Florida and Michigan gray, as these were not fair contests, and no delegates have been awarded.

[Sbane]

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No. Really, really, no.

Missouri and Ohio are both about 87% white and 12% black with less than 2% each Asians and Hispanics.  How much more similarity do you want?

The st louis area voted very heavily for obama and they accounted for a good portion of the whote. Is there a comparable area like that in ohio which will vote for obama with that kind of margin? I know there are enough working class areas in ohio like in missouri which will vote for clinton but im not sure where his st louis county is in ohio. In my opinion cleveland is not big enough to deliver him the election. He would need to do well in eastern ohio and i dont see him doing it.

[Smash255]

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No. Really, really, no.

Missouri and Ohio are both about 87% white and 12% black with less than 2% each Asians and Hispanics.  How much more similarity do you want?

The st louis area voted very heavily for obama and they accounted for a good portion of the whote. Is there a comparable area like that in ohio which will vote for obama with that kind of margin? I know there are enough working class areas in ohio like in missouri which will vote for clinton but im not sure where his st louis county is in ohio. In my opinion cleveland is not big enough to deliver him the election. He would need to do well in eastern ohio and i dont see him doing it.

The population of the cities itself is larger in Cleveland.  St.  Louis has a larger metro area, but some of the metro area is in Illinois, about equal if you only consider the areas inside the state itself

[Sbane]

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No. Really, really, no.

Missouri and Ohio are both about 87% white and 12% black with less than 2% each Asians and Hispanics.  How much more similarity do you want?

The st louis area voted very heavily for obama and they accounted for a good portion of the whote. Is there a comparable area like that in ohio which will vote for obama with that kind of margin? I know there are enough working class areas in ohio like in missouri which will vote for clinton but im not sure where his st louis county is in ohio. In my opinion cleveland is not big enough to deliver him the election. He would need to do well in eastern ohio and i dont see him doing it.

The population of the cities itself is larger in Cleveland.  St.  Louis has a larger metro area, but some of the metro area is in Illinois, about equal if you only consider the areas inside the state itself

well it all depends on what kind of margin he can rack up in cuyahoga county but i honestly have no idea how he will do. Ohio seems like the place where there are a lot of poor white democrats, Clintons core constituency. That in addition to the hispanics in tx are helping clinton a lot. Obama has to get a pretty good delegate lead going into march imho.

[Sam Spade]

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No. Really, really, no.

Missouri and Ohio are both about 87% white and 12% black with less than 2% each Asians and Hispanics.  How much more similarity do you want?

There's more to demographics than just race.