In a campaign where Obama loses Ohio to McCain, can he hope for VA, CO, NV, MO?

[Jacobtm]

If the race ends up Obama V. McCain, and the circumstances of the race are such that McCain wins Ohio, is it possible for Obama to win Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, or Missouri?

[Nym90]

If Obama's lost Ohio, then Missouri and Virginia are both probably out of reach. Colorado and Nevada would both still be possible.

I don't get why so many people are convinced that McCain will win Ohio, though. The economy is a huge issue there, and look at how Democratic it went in 2006...I guess I'll believe it when I see it.

[bullmoose88]

If Obama's lost Ohio, then Missouri and Virginia are both probably out of reach. Colorado and Nevada would both still be possible.

I don't get why so many people are convinced that McCain will win Ohio, though. The economy is a huge issue there, and look at how Democratic it went in 2006...I guess I'll believe it when I see it.

I understand Obama did well in Colorado and those two western states will be in play, but Obama's gonna need to improve his standing with hispanics if he wants a shot at winning thos two states in november.

[Aizen]

Interesting that both New Mexico and Nevada may be tougher for Obama than Colorado

[Horus]

My state is not going to easily go for McCain. I wouldn't even give him the edge. Obama has it for now, simply because Ohio is an economically obsessed state, and the GOP in Ohio in the eyes of many made our economy downturn like it did. Does McCain have a chance? Absolutely. Is Obama the favorite at this extremely early stage? Yes, but not by much.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I tend to think Missouri would be most likely of those states to go for Obama.

I don't see how McCain loses Virginia unless something goes horribly wrong in Iraq.

[opebo]

If Obama's lost Ohio, then Missouri and Virginia are both probably out of reach. Colorado and Nevada would both still be possible.

I don't get why so many people are convinced that McCain will win Ohio, though. The economy is a huge issue there, and look at how Democratic it went in 2006...I guess I'll believe it when I see it.

I understand Obama did well in Colorado and those two western states will be in play, but Obama's gonna need to improve his standing with hispanics if he wants a shot at winning thos two states in november.

Ok, Hispanics do prefer Hillary over Obama, but I doubt they're going to prefer John McCain over whoever the Democrat is, even if it is a black guy.

[Padfoot]

I think Obama could still take Colorado in such a scenario with Missouri and Nevada as tossups and Virginia going to McCain.

[Gustaf]

If the race ends up Obama V. McCain, and the circumstances of the race are such that McCain wins Ohio, is it possible for Obama to win Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, or Missouri?

What "circumstances of the race" are you thinking of exactly? I have this hunch that Obama will do well in Nevada and I think Colorado could be one of the pivotal states. Virginia and Missouri I kind of doubt to be honest. I think Obama will struggle quite a lot in the South and Border States.

[Sam Spade]

The only problem is that if Obama loses Ohio to McCain, I suspect PA will not be very far behind.  There are a lot of structural problems for him in that state (too put it mildly).

But yes, he "could" win the other four states mentioned while losing Ohio.  Missouri would probably be the toughest (and NV would not be easy either), but yes.

[TomC]

I agree about Mo. There are clear indications that Va, Co, and Nev are trending Dem. The midwest on the other hand seems to be trending to the GOP. With changes in Va, esp Northern, including recent wins by Webb and Kaine, it is reasonable to expect there might be changes that work in Obama's favor.

I think the same is true for Nev and Colo. Some here seem to claim Obama has a problem with Hispanics, and for the primary, he does, I'd say due to name recognition more than outright racism, but whatever. He can certainly compete in the West.

The economy is an issue in Ohio to be sure, but I's argue that demographic changes in Ohio and Mo. are less stark than in Va, Colo, and Nev, meaning the former are more likely to be predictable based on past data.