Feb. 9th primaries & caucuses--Dem. results thread

[Lief 🗽]

Much higher margin that I expected, and much higher that the exit polls predicted.

[MarkWarner08]

link to MyDD plz

www.MYDD.com

There you'll learn about how Hillary will pass universal health care, end the War in Iraq, eliminate the deficit,  and end sexism in America. You'll also discover Obama's conservative record, his support for FREE MARKET economics, and why he's the most corrupt politician since Huey Long.

[Aizen]

link to MyDD plz

www.MYDD.com

There you'll learn about how Hillary will pass universal health care, end the War in Iraq, eliminate the deficit,  and end sexism in America. You'll also discover Obama's conservative record, his support for FREE MARKET economics (gasp!), and why he's the most corrupt politician since Huey Long.

sounds like fun

[bgwah]

Washington map-Obama in green and Clinton in red


The overall map looks like the Obama map except Douglas.

[MarkWarner08]

link to MyDD plz

www.MYDD.com

There you'll learn about how Hillary will pass universal health care, end the War in Iraq, eliminate the deficit,  and end sexism in America. You'll also discover Obama's conservative record, his support for FREE MARKET economics (gasp!), and why he's the most corrupt politician since Huey Long.

sounds like fun

One poster routinely compares Obama to Bush and claims that Obama will lose California in the general election.

[Lief 🗽]

Interestingly enough, the Obama campaign's "leaked" projections showed him picking up fewer delegates and fewer votes than we actually saw today.

[agcatter]

My guess is that the Clinton campaign can't be happy.  I'd guess they lost a net 10 delegates today more than they thought they'd lose.  I even heard CNN say it was far more lopsided than most thought it would be.  When the Clinton News Network concedes it was a blowout, you know it was a brutal night.

[Speed of Sound]

Thats not whats interesting about it. Notice the difference between Hillary and Barack in this projection: 26 delegates. How many delegates does John Edwards have again?

[Meeker]

Thats not whats interesting about it. Notice the difference between Hillary and Barack in this projection: 26 delegates. How many delegates does John Edwards have again?

Now THAT would be hillarious.

The superdelegates would have to split evenly as well of course

[agcatter]

There projections down the road look very reasonable except I'm not sure they can come quite as close as the 5 pt, losses they are projecting in the big states of Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.  If they DO manage to run that well in those states, Obama could just pull this off.

[Lief 🗽]

Delegates (with Obama campaign's "leaked" predictions in parentheses):
Washington:
Obama 52 (49)     Clinton 26 (29)     Undecided 00
Nebraska:
Obama 16 (15)     Clinton 08 (09)     Undecided 00
Louisiana:
Obama 23 (31)     Clinton 15 (25)     Undecided 18
Virgin Islands:
Obama 03 (02)     Clinton 00 (01)     Undecided 00
Total:
Obama 91 (97)     Clinton 49 (64)     Undecided 18

[CultureKing]

There projections down the road look very reasonable except I'm not sure they can come quite as close as the 5 pt, losses they are projecting in the big states of Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.  If they DO manage to run that well in those states, Obama could just pull this off.

I think that they underestimate themselves by far in the potomac primaries, I don't see him losing any of them, in fact at this point I would be suprised if he won any by less than 10%.

[agcatter]

Funny how they underprojected their Louisiana vote yet greatly overestimated their Louisiana delegate haul.  That's way weird.

[Lief 🗽]

Funny how they underprojected their Louisiana vote yet greatly overestimated their Louisiana delegate haul.  That's way weird.

Well, like half the Louisiana delegates are yet to be assigned by the media projections, so they could still very well do better than their projections.

There projections down the road look very reasonable except I'm not sure they can come quite as close as the 5 pt, losses they are projecting in the big states of Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.  If they DO manage to run that well in those states, Obama could just pull this off.

I think that they underestimate themselves by far in the potomac primaries, I don't see him losing any of them, in fact at this point I would be suprised if he won any by less than 10%.

Yeah, only 58% in DC? There's a chance that Clinton might literally fail to gain the 15% viability in DC. Also, a 2% win in Virginia is also a huge underestimation, if polls showing him winning by 20% are to be believed.

[agcatter]

I didn't notice their Potomac projections.  Absolutely right, they should exceed their projections in those three primaries easily.  However, they may be a bit optimistic in Wisconsin and maybe NC.

[exopolitician]

Im more worried about Maine tomorrow than the Potomic Primaries really. Commenators on MSNBC said that Hillary might just skip Virginia, Maryland, and DC and just head straight to Texas within the next week. Good idea?

[Lief 🗽]

No, not at all. They're looking more and more like the Giuliani campaign: not paying their staff, skipping primaries that look bad for them to focus on "big states"... not good.

[agcatter]

Obama's one ace in the hole in Texas is that 35 or 40 % of the delegates are chosen in a night caucus the day of the election.  If he can organize well.....

[Lief 🗽]

Obama's one ace in the hole in Texas is that 35 or 40 % of the delegates are chosen in a night caucus the day of the election.  If he can organize well.....

A caucus that no one but the hardest of the hardcore knows about or attends.

[exopolitician]

Obama's one ace in the hole in Texas is that 35 or 40 % of the delegates are chosen in a night caucus the day of the election.  If he can organize well.....

If [somehow] Obama wins Maine, Maryland, Virginia, and DC along with his 4 wins tonight[knock on wood]....I think hes got HUGE momentum on his side that could go to his advantage in Texas and Ohio...thats just me though.

[Aizen]

Obama's one ace in the hole in Texas is that 35 or 40 % of the delegates are chosen in a night caucus the day of the election.  If he can organize well.....

If [somehow] Obama wins Maine, Maryland, Virginia, and DC along with his 4 wins tonight[knock on wood]....I think hes got HUGE momentum on his side that could go to his advantage in Texas and Ohio...thats just me though.

Well, you'd be correct

[exopolitician]

Wolf Blitzer seems so dissapointed when he called the states for Obama tonight

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Anyway, Nebraska is 69-31 for Obama with 73% in. Washington is 67-32 for Obama with 35% in. Louisiana polls close in about half an hour.

Sheesh, I knew Hillary was going to lose those but I didn't expect a raping that bad.

I think the Clinton campaign is going to call for you to temporarily banned, apoligize twice, be permantly banned, and then will boycott this entire site.

[agcatter]

Yeah, I thought Wolf was going to cry.

[Speed of Sound]

Ummmm...did anyone else see the numbers CNN just put up? It had Clinton leading pledged delegates! ROFL