Feb. 9th primaries & caucuses--Dem. results thread

[agcatter]

Texas is an open primary.  There will be some Republicans (along with some independents)who will cross over and vote for Obama if they think this will help put a fork in the Clintons.  Why not.  There's no race left on the GOP side.

[exopolitician]

The Obama Campaign just released a statement about fundraising, and how they are already getting close to 400,000 donars for the month of February. Also, that they obviously outpreformed the Clinton Campaign in fundraising in the month of January and February.

[exopolitician]

Oh, and Rhode Island Attorney General Patrick Lynch has endorsed Obama.

[Meeker]

Oh, and Rhode Island Attorney General Patrick Lynch has endorsed Obama.

Well that's that then. Clinton should just drop out really. Game over, Obama wins.

[exopolitician]

Oh, and Rhode Island Attorney General Patrick Lynch has endorsed Obama.

Well that's that then. Clinton should just drop out really. Game over, Obama wins.

Sarcasm?

[Gabu]

Oh, and Rhode Island Attorney General Patrick Lynch has endorsed Obama.

Well that's that then. Clinton should just drop out really. Game over, Obama wins.

Sarcasm?

That much should be obvious.

[TheresNoMoney]

Well that's that then. Clinton should just drop out really. Game over, Obama wins.

Nice one!

[exopolitician]

Oh, and Rhode Island Attorney General Patrick Lynch has endorsed Obama.

Well that's that then. Clinton should just drop out really. Game over, Obama wins.

Sarcasm?

That much should be obvious.

Hm, I must be really out of the loop then. *researches*

[Eraserhead]

I was out all night. What did the initial exit polls show in LA?

[Lief 🗽]

Obama 52.6 to Clinton 44.8, so they under-estimated Obama's margin by like 12 points.

[jimrtex]

CNN.com only has the Washinton primary listed as being on Feb. 19. I thought there was a caucus today where delegates are actually being given. Am I wrong about this?

In regular primaries in Washington for statewide office, the ballots have both parties' candidates for nomination.  The voter indicates the party whose primary he wishes to participate in on the ballot.  Thus not only are his candidate choices secret, so is his party selection.

The national Democratic party does not like this, and has forced the Washington Democratic party to use caucuses to select their delegates.  The claim is that they are concerned about Republicans and Greens and Libertarians tainting their primary, but it is really more about being control freaks.  In addition, they want to be able to identify Democrat leaning voters so that they can contact them with their GOTV campaign in November, as well as their vote suppression efforts against Republican voters.

In an attempt to accomodate the Democrats' concerns, the ballot envelope contains an oath indicating that the voter did not participate in the primary or caucus of any other party (most Washington voters vote by mail).  The ballots of those who took the oath will be counted separately from those who did.

The Washington Democratic party will ignore the votes in the presidential primary.  The Republicans will use the votes in their presidential primary to select 51% of their delegates, with the other 49% based on caucuses.

Since most Washington voters vote by mail, many have already voted in the primary.  Clallam County reported that over 10% of registered voters had returned their ballots by the first available day.  There will be many times over voters participating in the primary as will participate in the caucuses.

[Ben.]

Obama had a pretty policy heavy speech at the JJ... a good move on his part, though the first half was still very much 'boiler-plate' Obama (ie. 'change', 'yes we can' etc...), important that he begins to move beyond platitudes (Clinton gets away with it more easily - Obama wont be able to)... in fact he rounded off the speech very well, hitting the suggestion of being policy light.

All in all subtle shift in his rhetoric tonight, towards the style that would be more at home in a general election campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obama 52.6 to Clinton 44.8, so they under-estimated Obama's margin by like 12 points.

What's interesting is that they overestimated Clinton more than they underestimated Obama.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, some of the odder voting patterns of last night did fix themselves while I was a-sleeping. Methinks that the map looks pretty ugly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Awwwwwwwww...

[exopolitician]

Awwwwwwwww...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In an attempt to accomodate the Democrats' concerns, the ballot envelope contains an oath indicating that the voter did not participate in the primary or caucus of any other party (most Washington voters vote by mail).  The ballots of those who took the oath will be counted separately from those who did.

!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Map of the Lyonesse results:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Guess which county Edwards broke 15% in?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Clever game by the Obama camp. "Accidentally" release a delegate projection, then outperform it.

[Sam Spade]

Guess which county Edwards broke 15% in?

At first, I though St. Bernard, but the Edwards vote wasn't really that high there.

After thinking a little more, I got the joke you were making - it was LaSalle Parish, where the county seat is Jena... 

Also, looks like there was a strong "lying about voting for a woman" tendency in the exit polling, not surprising for this area of the country (if my anecdotal observations in East Texas are any measure).  The strongest Clinton counties had abnormally high numbers of people (10%-20%) voting for white male candidates - amusing protest vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After thinking a little more, I got the joke you were making - it was LaSalle Parish, where the county seat is Jena... 

This is why primaries are great. It also voted 66% for David Duke in the '91 runoff (53% in the first round).

[Sam Spade]

After thinking a little more, I got the joke you were making - it was LaSalle Parish, where the county seat is Jena... 

This is why primaries are great. It also voted 66% for David Duke in the '91 runoff (53% in the first round).

Query:  I really haven't had a chance to look through the results in any detail yet.  Do you see any improvement for Obama among the groups he'll need to perform well to have a shot in say, Texas (because rural east Texas will count for something)?

I would say Ohio, but I know how different the two states are.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After thinking a little more, I got the joke you were making - it was LaSalle Parish, where the county seat is Jena... 

This is why primaries are great. It also voted 66% for David Duke in the '91 runoff (53% in the first round).

Query:  I really haven't had a chance to look through the results in any detail yet.  Do you see any improvement for Obama among the groups he'll need to perform well to have a shot in say, Texas (because rural east Texas will count for something)?

I would say Ohio, but I know how different the two states are.

Well in Lyonesse's only two lily white parishes (Cameron, Livingstone) he polled 18% and 22% respectively.

I'm actually about half way through some maps on this general thing so...

[Sam Spade]

After thinking a little more, I got the joke you were making - it was LaSalle Parish, where the county seat is Jena... 

This is why primaries are great. It also voted 66% for David Duke in the '91 runoff (53% in the first round).

Query:  I really haven't had a chance to look through the results in any detail yet.  Do you see any improvement for Obama among the groups he'll need to perform well to have a shot in say, Texas (because rural east Texas will count for something)?

I would say Ohio, but I know how different the two states are.

Well in Lyonesse's only two lily white parishes (Cameron, Livingstone) he polled 18% and 22% respectively.

I'm actually about half way through some maps on this general thing so...

I get your point - the answer is (almost likely) no.  Especially since most of east Texas outside Beaumont/Port Arthur resembles those areas and not the rest of Louisiana.

Though I'd be curious to know your thoughts when you're done.