Black turnout stats since 1992.

[Jacobtm]

Where can I find statistics for black turnout, specifically in the last 4 presidential elections? I'm essentially interested in finding out whether increased black turnout in any state could give a state that voted Republican in '00 and '04 to Obama in '08. So bassically, were there more than 300,000 registered black voters in Virginia who didn't show up to the polls in '04, or 200,000 in Missouri, or 120,000 in Ohio? Etc.

Thanks,
Jacob

[Nym90]

There's no way to know the exact black turnout since such statistics aren't obviously kept.

You have to look at exit polls, or even better, look at the turnout in counties that have high percentages of black population. Even better is if you can look at cities or precincts that have higher black population.

In general black turnout has been much lower than white turnout for years, so it certainly is quite plausible that Obama could win many close states by increasing the black turnout, since there's plenty of opportunity to increase it, provided he doesn't alienate white voters in the process.

[The Hack Hater]

Missouri would be Obama's best chance. There's a reason it's called a bellweather state, it could decide the election should it turn out to be close.

[Nym90]

Missouri would be Obama's best chance. There's a reason it's called a bellweather state, it could decide the election should it turn out to be close.

Problem is that Obama would not be likely to win many more counties in the general than he did in the primary, and the overall turnout will proportionally be much greater in the Clinton counties in the general as compared to what it was in the Democratic primary than in the Obama counties.

All those rural counties Clinton won don't matter so much in a Dem primary in Missouri, but they have a lot more clout in the general.

[jimrtex]

Where can I find statistics for black turnout, specifically in the last 4 presidential elections? I'm essentially interested in finding out whether increased black turnout in any state could give a state that voted Republican in '00 and '04 to Obama in '08. So bassically, were there more than 300,000 registered black voters in Virginia who didn't show up to the polls in '04, or 200,000 in Missouri, or 120,000 in Ohio? Etc.

Voting and Registration in the
Election of November 2004

This is based on the Current Population Survey, which is conducted by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is primarily used for gathering data on (un)employment, but asks a voting participation question in December following elections.  Typically, there is somewhat more reported voting than election statistics show.

Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004

This has a lot more detailed data.