Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Smid]

That was a great comment: "If you can't do your job as Leader of the Opposition, how can you ask people to vote for you for Prime Minister"

[cp]

Wow, can you be any more of an anti-NDP hack? I mean, the media was all over Layton's performance. And as much as I hate the Green Party, I'll give credit where it is due and say May did a good job.

I must admit, there were times that I could not understand Dion, and his lack of ability in the language made him fumble in the debates, like when Layton attacked him on being a lousy opposition leader (total ownage by the way). Dion couldn't come back with anything snappy. It was very Turneresque of him.

These are the only highlights of the debate you need to see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny8Z5DC4UIY

I believe this is an example of the teapot calling the kettle 'hack'

And I stand by what I said: Layton was shrill and miles behind May.

[Verily]

I watched a big chunk of the debate, and I have to give Dion more credit. He probably did better than Harper, at least, and maybe than Duceppe (although ranking Duceppe in the English debate is pointless; the Bloc gets no Anglophone votes).

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, can you be any more of an anti-NDP hack? I mean, the media was all over Layton's performance. And as much as I hate the Green Party, I'll give credit where it is due and say May did a good job.

I must admit, there were times that I could not understand Dion, and his lack of ability in the language made him fumble in the debates, like when Layton attacked him on being a lousy opposition leader (total ownage by the way). Dion couldn't come back with anything snappy. It was very Turneresque of him.

These are the only highlights of the debate you need to see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny8Z5DC4UIY

I believe this is an example of the teapot calling the kettle 'hack'

And I stand by what I said: Layton was shrill and miles better than May.

I make no delusions about how much of a partisan hack I am, but I like to think I am impartial when it comes to analyzing debates.  And I wouldn't say Jack was shrill, but whatever. I wouldn't say he was "miles better" than her, but thanks

[Hatman 🍁]

St John's East poll:

Jack Harris (NDP) 52.3%
Walter Noel (Lib) 8.7%
Craig Westcott (Cons) 8.2%
Undecided 30.4%

[Hash]

Changing my prediction from Lean NDP to Safe NDP.

[MaxQue]

To complete Earl's post, results of the same poll for Avalon and St. John's South-Mount Pearl:

St. John's South-Mount Pearl:

Siobhan Coady (Lib): 29.1%
Ryan Cleary (NDP): 19.5%
Merv Wiseman (Cons): 11.6%
Others: 1.3%
Undecided: 38.5%

Avalon:

Fabian Manning (Cons): 25.1%
Scott Andrews (Lib): 21.6%
Randy Dawe (NDP): 12.6%
Undecided: 39.9%

[MaxQue]

To continue with riding polls: (Segma Unimarketing)

Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine:
Raynald Blais (BQ): 44
Darryl Gray (CPC): 23
Denis Gauvreau (LPC): 21
Gaston Langlais (NDP): 7
Julien Lebalnc (GPC): 5

Louis-Hébert:
Luc Harvey (CPC): 30
Pascal-Pierre Paillé (BQ): 28
Jean Beaupré (LPC): 13
Denis Blanchette (NDP): 9
Michelle Fontaine (GPC): 6
Stefan Jetchick (CHP): 1

Quebec (the riding):
Christiane Gagnon (BQ): 37
Myriam Taschereau (CPC): 21
Damien Rousseau (LPC): 9
Catherine Roy-Goyette (NDP): 9
Yonnel Bonaventure (GPC): 7

Montmorency—Charlevoix—Haute-Côte-Nord:
Michel Guimond (BQ): 45
Guy-Léonard Tremblay (CPC): 23
Robert Gauthier (LPC): 7
Jonathan Tremblay (NDP): 4
Jacques Legros (GPC): 2

Jeanne-Le-Ber :
Thierry Saint-Cyr (BQ): 28
Christian Feuillette (LPC): 23
Daniel Breton (NDP): 15
Daniel Beaudin (CPC): 11
Véronik Sansoucy (GPC): 6

Papineau :
Justin Trudeau (LPC) : 32
Vivian Barbeau (BQ) : 27
Costa Zarifopoulos (NDP) : 10
Mustaque Sarker (CPC) : 6
Ingrid Hein (GPC) : 6

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles :
Luc Desnoyers (BQ) : 32
Claude Carignan (CPC) : 24
Denis Joannette (LPC) : 12
Normand Beaudet (NDP) : 7
Marie-Martine Bédard (GPC) : 4

Vaudreuil-Soulanges :
Meili Faille (BQ) : 39
Michael Fortier (the senator) (CPC) : 17
Brigitte Legault (LPC) : 12
Maxime Héroux-Legault (NDP) : 7
Jean-Yves Massenet (GPC) : 4

[MaxQue]

Tracking Polls. It seems than Ekos and Harris-Decima don't have polls today.

Nanos Canada

CPC: 35 (0)
LPC: 28 (-2)
NDP: 19 (+1)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 40 (+1)
LPC: 26 (+2)
CPC: 17 (-3)
NDP: 9 (-2)
GPC: 8 (+1)

Conservatives seems to be in free fall in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. There was one in the paper from a week ago that showed a landslide for John Baird in Ottawa West-Nepean.

[Hash]

Interesting. There was one in the paper from a week ago that showed a landslide for John Baird in Ottawa West-Nepean.

I saw that in the sh**tizen a few days ago. I didn't read it, since I don't care.

Louis-Hébert:
Luc Harvey (CPC): 30
Pascal-Pierre Paillé (BQ): 28
Jean Beaupré (LPC): 13
Denis Blanchette (NDP): 9
Michelle Fontaine (GPC): 6
Stefan Jetchick (CHP): 1

Interesting.

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Not surprising. There was never a chance that the Tories would win this riding.

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As I predicted. Liberals aren't picking this one up.

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Oh dear.

I hope Mustaque Sarker gets beaten into fifth by the Greenie. Sarker is such a joke.

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Good riddance to Fortier.

Why on earth didn't they poll Ahuntsic? Or Honoré-Mercier for that matter.

A Beauce poll would've been amusing too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hull-Aylmer would be nice. I hear it's close, but the Liberals have the edge.

[Хahar 🤔]

St John's East poll:

Jack Harris (NDP) 52.3%
Walter Noel (Lib) 8.7%
Craig Westcott (Cons) 8.2%
Undecided 30.4%

WTF

[Filuwaúrdjan]

St John's East poll:

Jack Harris (NDP) 52.3%
Walter Noel (Lib) 8.7%
Craig Westcott (Cons) 8.2%
Undecided 30.4%

WTF

Harris is backed by Williams.

[Хahar 🤔]

St John's East poll:

Jack Harris (NDP) 52.3%
Walter Noel (Lib) 8.7%
Craig Westcott (Cons) 8.2%
Undecided 30.4%

WTF

Harris is backed by Williams.

Even still, I have a hard time believing that the result would be that lopsided.

[Verily]

St John's East poll:

Jack Harris (NDP) 52.3%
Walter Noel (Lib) 8.7%
Craig Westcott (Cons) 8.2%
Undecided 30.4%

WTF

Harris is backed by Williams.

Even still, I have a hard time believing that the result would be that lopsided.

Why not? The Liberal and Conservative candidates are jokes, and Harris is immensely popular with enormous crossover appeal. Of course, he may end up being more trouble than he's worth to the federal NDP caucus.

[cp]

Indeed. A friend of mine in St. John's told me the day after the election was called (or near then) that the NDP candidate in St. John's East was hugely popular. It's probably not going to end up with a 44 point victory, but if he's the local hero then it doesn't really matter what party he's running for.

[Hash]

What % did Harris get in the 1987 by-election, out of curiosity?

[MaxQue]

46.28%. He lost in 1988 with 35.3% against the PC with 44.13%

[Hash]

The PC candidate in '87 was Thomas Hickey. Lol.

[Hatman 🍁]

St John's East poll:

Jack Harris (NDP) 52.3%
Walter Noel (Lib) 8.7%
Craig Westcott (Cons) 8.2%
Undecided 30.4%

WTF

Harris is backed by Williams.

Even still, I have a hard time believing that the result would be that lopsided.

Why not? The Liberal and Conservative candidates are jokes, and Harris is immensely popular with enormous crossover appeal. Of course, he may end up being more trouble than he's worth to the federal NDP caucus.

Why? He's a true NDPer, he was the leader of the provincial party.

[Verily]

St John's East poll:

Jack Harris (NDP) 52.3%
Walter Noel (Lib) 8.7%
Craig Westcott (Cons) 8.2%
Undecided 30.4%

WTF

Harris is backed by Williams.

Even still, I have a hard time believing that the result would be that lopsided.

Why not? The Liberal and Conservative candidates are jokes, and Harris is immensely popular with enormous crossover appeal. Of course, he may end up being more trouble than he's worth to the federal NDP caucus.

Why? He's a true NDPer, he was the leader of the provincial party.

Yes, and he was (and really still is) the star of the party. He'll never be the star of the federal NDP, though, and that can be a very hard transition. Most internal party feuds aren't political, they're personal (think Copps, Stronach/MacKay, etc.), and Harris strikes me as being at least a potential danger for that kind of rift, especially combined with Newfoundland's extreme anti-federal government irritableness. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's something to watch out for. A lot of politicians have trouble transitioning from being big fish in small ponds to the national stage.

[Hatman 🍁]

St John's East poll:

Jack Harris (NDP) 52.3%
Walter Noel (Lib) 8.7%
Craig Westcott (Cons) 8.2%
Undecided 30.4%

WTF

Harris is backed by Williams.

Even still, I have a hard time believing that the result would be that lopsided.

Why not? The Liberal and Conservative candidates are jokes, and Harris is immensely popular with enormous crossover appeal. Of course, he may end up being more trouble than he's worth to the federal NDP caucus.

Why? He's a true NDPer, he was the leader of the provincial party.

Yes, and he was (and really still is) the star of the party. He'll never be the star of the federal NDP, though, and that can be a very hard transition. Most internal party feuds aren't political, they're personal (think Copps, Stronach/MacKay, etc.), and Harris strikes me as being at least a potential danger for that kind of rift, especially combined with Newfoundland's extreme anti-federal government irritableness. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's something to watch out for. A lot of politicians have trouble transitioning from being big fish in small ponds to the national stage.

I can see him being a star in the party. Being the lone MP from a province does that.

[Verily]

St John's East poll:

Jack Harris (NDP) 52.3%
Walter Noel (Lib) 8.7%
Craig Westcott (Cons) 8.2%
Undecided 30.4%

WTF

Harris is backed by Williams.

Even still, I have a hard time believing that the result would be that lopsided.

Why not? The Liberal and Conservative candidates are jokes, and Harris is immensely popular with enormous crossover appeal. Of course, he may end up being more trouble than he's worth to the federal NDP caucus.

Why? He's a true NDPer, he was the leader of the provincial party.

Yes, and he was (and really still is) the star of the party. He'll never be the star of the federal NDP, though, and that can be a very hard transition. Most internal party feuds aren't political, they're personal (think Copps, Stronach/MacKay, etc.), and Harris strikes me as being at least a potential danger for that kind of rift, especially combined with Newfoundland's extreme anti-federal government irritableness. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's something to watch out for. A lot of politicians have trouble transitioning from being big fish in small ponds to the national stage.

I can see him being a star in the party. Being the lone MP from a province does that.

Eh, maybe. Mulcair is certainly ambitious and a star, but I'm not sure that ambition is helping the NDP much. And not many politicians would be happy with playing the role of Yvon Godin.

[Smid]

Interesting. There was one in the paper from a week ago that showed a landslide for John Baird in Ottawa West-Nepean.

That's because John Baird rocks my world.