Canada 2008: Official Thread

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 34 (0)
LPC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 20 (+1)
BQ: 11 (+1)
GPC: 6 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 44 (+3)
LPC: 23 (-5)
CPC: 18 (+2)
NDP: 10 (0)
GPC: 5 (-1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 35 (-1)
LPC: 25 (+1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 10 (-1)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 43 (+3)
CPC: 21 (+1)
LPC: 19 (-1)
NDP: 13 (+1)
GPC: 5 (-2)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 32 (-2)
LPC: 25 (+1)
NDP: 21 (+1)
GPC: 12 (-1)
BQ: 8 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 33 (0)
LPC: 27 (+5)
CPC: 18 (-3)
NDP: 12 (0)
GPC: 8 (-1)

[Hatman 🍁]

So what do y'all think are the real numbers?

My guess:

CPC: 36
LPC: 28
NDP: 19
BQ: 10
GPC: 7

[Hatman 🍁]

% White people map. Seems to be a good correlation between white people and likelihood of voting Conservative. Ridings with more than 80% white people tend to vote tory.

[Hash]

So what do y'all think are the real numbers?

My guess:

CPC: 36
LPC: 28
NDP: 19
BQ: 10
GPC: 7

I predict that the Greenies will poll better than 7%. Not 10%, but more like 8-9%.

[Hash]

DemoSpace: http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/seat-projections.pdf

Seems to have stopped taking LSD. He isn't predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa South anymore, for starters.

But some are still crazy.

[Hatman 🍁]

DemoSpace: http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/seat-projections.pdf

Seems to have stopped taking LSD. He isn't predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa South anymore, for starters.

But some are still crazy.

yeah, I noticed. Which ones do you think are crazy?

[Verily]

DemoSpace: http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/seat-projections.pdf

Seems to have stopped taking LSD. He isn't predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa South anymore, for starters.

But some are still crazy.

yeah, I noticed. Which ones do you think are crazy?

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquoduboit Valley is his worst. He has Casey barely squeaking by with under 30% of the vote; Casey should win comfortably with at least 40%. He also has the Greens running a candidate in the riding (and also in Jonquiere-Alma, Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Vert and the other one I forget).

[Hash]

All 3 trackers have the Tory lead down to single digit. In Ontario, EKOS has a tie, Nanos has Lib +9 and Harris has L +8.

In Quebec, Nanos sez Bloc @ 46%. Harris is weird on Quebec- they're seeing the Grits much higher (28ish range) and a single-digit Bloc lead.

[MaxQue]

Good summary, Hashemite. Nanos' Greens numbers in Quebec are probably wacky. I don't think than they are this low.

Nanos Canada

CPC: 34 (0)
LPC: 31 (+2)
NDP: 18 (-2)
BQ: 11 (0)
GPC: 6 (0)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 46 (+2)
LPC: 22 (-1)
CPC: 20 (+2)
NDP: 11 (+1)
GPC: 2 (-3)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 33 (-2)
LPC: 26 (+1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 12 (+2)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 42 (-1)
LPC: 21 (-2
CPC: 17 (-4)
NDP: 15 (+2)
GPC: 5 (0)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 31 (-1)
LPC: 26 (+1)
NDP: 21 (0)
GPC: 13 (+1)
BQ: 8 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 33 (0)
LPC: 28 (+1)
CPC: 19 (+1)
NDP: 12 (0)
GPC: 8 (0)

[Hash]

The Globe and Mail was mentioning these battleground thingees again, so I decided to look at them.

http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/polltracker.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting numbers from BC. NDP numbers are down, but so are the Liberals, so I can live with that.

[Hatman 🍁]

looks like Dion is just as guilty of plagiarizing as Harper: http://www.citynews.ca/news/news_27724.aspx

[cp]

"The Conservatives contend the Dion speech used "31 per cent" of the Corell text and never gave any attribution."

31%, eh? Just like your poll numbers?

I'm not one to condone plagiarism, but this is a weak comeback in response to Harper's copy/paste job last week. It's not even as bad as Biden's plagiarizing of Niel Kinnock's speech in 1988. At least in those cases the substance of the speech was in question; in this case Dion's just lifting statistics and hyperbole's about climate change.

In any case, it's a non-issue. The story of the day seems to be Dion's speech to the Empire Club this afternoon. It's not really noteworthy unto itself, but it's telling that Harper gave a speech to the same crowd immediately afterward and there's not a word printed about it. The media's taken up Dion's cause in the last few days, possibly out of pity, possibly out of a vacuum created by the lack of a Tory presence on the airwaves.

I'll be interested to see how the NDP and Greens fare with this new dynamic. The Tory slide seems to have benefited the Liberals most, but the conventional wisdom is that when the Liberals are strong they attract leaning/undecided voters who would otherwise vote NDP/Green/Bloc/etc. If there's a drop in support for those parties in the next few days this could turn out to be different than has been predicted.

[MaxQue]

Ekos seems to disagreeing with other pollsters.

Nanos Canada

CPC: 33 (-1)
LPC: 29 (-2)
NDP: 20 (+2)
BQ: 11 (0)
GPC: 7 (+1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 45 (-1)
LPC: 21 (-1)
CPC: 20 (0)
NDP: 13 (+2)
GPC: 2 (0)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (+1)
LPC: 25 (-1)
NDP: 20 (+1)
GPC: 11 (-1)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (-2)
LPC: 21 (0)
CPC: 17 (0)
NDP: 15 (0)
GPC: 7 (+2)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 31 (0)
LPC: 27 (+1)
NDP: 20 (-1)
GPC: 12 (-1)
BQ: 8 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 36 (+3)
LPC: 28 (0)
CPC: 21 (+2)
NDP: 10 (-2)
GPC: 5 (-3)

[Hash]

Angus-Reid also released a poll, and contrary to my expectations, the Conservatives only have a 35-37 lead. And not a 40-20 lead like they normally have.

This is bad, very bad for the Tories. Angus-Reid is the most Conservative pollster out there.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

What's the cause of this meltdown, are the Liberals-BQ-NDP likely to form a Gov't?



Not being entirely sure how these things work in Canada (I gather the GG gives orders forcing a Gov't of sorts to form) but aren't they likely to have another election within a year? If this is the case, even with the huge loss of face by Harper, it seems unlikely to me that the electorate will be running to give Dion a mandate by making the Liberals the largest party.... in short, if the Tories do end up with something near 130 seats, how in the world does this deadlock get broken?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More minority governments, presumably.

[Hash]

Canada has minority administrations, not coalitions.

I can't recall any federal coalitions off the top of my head (though there has been coalition governments provincially, Ontario for starters).

[Verily]

Coalitions don't happen in Canada, despite a lot of minority governments. The Liberals might be able to form government as the second-largest party if they came only five or so seats shy of the Conservatives, but I don't expect that to happen.

The deadlock would probably be broken by the Liberals throwing Dion out on his ear for someone more competent and then winning an election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Canada has minority administrations, not coalitions.

I can't recall any federal coalitions off the top of my head (though there has been coalition governments provincially, Ontario for starters).

There was a de facto Liberal-NDP coalition in the early '70's, but I think that's as close as it gets since the '30's IIRC.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Again, what's the reason for the conservative collapse?



More importantly, where can I watch the coverage live?

[Hash]

Again, what's the reason for the conservative collapse?

Harper's failure to address the economic crisis. I also think releasing the party platform on the last week helps either.

[ottermax]

If you live in Texas you probably don't get CBC unless you have satellite. Otherwise just use the internet for info, and I'm sure there are videos of coverage on the major broadcast network stations CBC, CTV, and Global. (However they might not let you watch the videos because we live in the US).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Collapse is far too strong a word. As for the vanishing possibility of a majority, I think, yeah, a failure to be seen to do something about the trouble in financeland has a lot to do with that.

[2952-0-0]

Yesterday he said there are many buying opportunities on the market. It doesn't go well with those whose RRSPs have been devalued so much lately.