Canada 2008: Official Thread

[WalterMitty]

Yesterday he said there are many buying opportunities on the market. It doesn't go well with those whose RRSPs have been devalued so much lately.

but what he said was/is true.

[cinyc]

Again, what's the reason for the conservative collapse?

Harper's failure to address the economic crisis. I also think releasing the party platform on the last week helps either.

That, plus the arts funding controversy hurting the Tories in Quebec.  Add that to the fact that the Canadian race always seems to get a little bit closer as election day draws near (2006 Wikipedia Polling Chart).   The public just doesn't seem to want to give the Tories a majority government.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Will it be seen as a defeat for Harper?

Can Dion survive by simply increasing the seats he holds?

[Verily]

Will it be seen as a defeat for Harper?

Can Dion survive by simply increasing the seats he holds?

Internal Conservative Party discipline would crumble if the Conservatives stood still or lost seats, and Harper would probably be gone within a year. As for Dion, I'm not sure if the Liberals have yet developed the political spine to oust him if the Liberals fail to become largest party (which they likely will not manage but it doesn't look impossible any more). If they do, it will be Michael Ignatieff who becomes leader, and he would almost certainly win the subsequent election (although probably only a minority; it's difficult to imagine majority governments as long as the Bloc and NDP and Greens are strong and the right isn't splintered).

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Will it be seen as a defeat for Harper?

Can Dion survive by simply increasing the seats he holds?

Internal Conservative Party discipline would crumble if the Conservatives stood still or lost seats, and Harper would probably be gone within a year. As for Dion, I'm not sure if the Liberals have yet developed the political spine to oust him if the Liberals fail to become largest party (which they likely will not manage but it doesn't look impossible any more). If they do, it will be Michael Ignatieff who becomes leader, and he would almost certainly win the subsequent election (although probably only a minority; it's difficult to imagine majority governments as long as the Bloc and NDP and Greens are strong and the right isn't splintered).

Why would the conservatives fall apart in the event of this?

[Verily]

Will it be seen as a defeat for Harper?

Can Dion survive by simply increasing the seats he holds?

Internal Conservative Party discipline would crumble if the Conservatives stood still or lost seats, and Harper would probably be gone within a year. As for Dion, I'm not sure if the Liberals have yet developed the political spine to oust him if the Liberals fail to become largest party (which they likely will not manage but it doesn't look impossible any more). If they do, it will be Michael Ignatieff who becomes leader, and he would almost certainly win the subsequent election (although probably only a minority; it's difficult to imagine majority governments as long as the Bloc and NDP and Greens are strong and the right isn't splintered).

Why would the conservatives fall apart in the event of this?

Not the party, just loyalty to Harper. His strength within the party is mostly predicated on the vision that he will, one day, lead them to a majority government. But, if he can't beat Dion, he can't be anyone, and the more PC-ish members of the party as well as some of the staunchest right-wingers will stop supporting him in internal party votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I've had it up to here with the Liberals. Turns out the rumours they were stealing our signs was true. One of our volunteers caught them in the act and took photos.  I am disgusted and outraged. Hopefully we will go to the media with it.

Anyways, I'm heard today from an insider that McKay was down 10 points... to the NDP candidate! hahaha. He's now trying to make it look like a Green-Cons race so that NDPers go to the Greens. Apparently the Liberals in the riding have flocked behind us.

[cp]

Hmm, strange. My friend working in Central Nova gave me a very different story when I asked her what's going on. She said Conservative support was slipping after MacKay's lackluster performance in the local candidate debate and that it was flocking to the Greens. The Green offices have been flooded with volunteers in the past week and the signage war is well in their favour: 2 Green signs for every Tory one and the NDP virtually non-existent, by her estimate.

We'll have to wait and see before we know for sure. Insider polling is seldom unbiased and, frustratingly for all us poll junkies, polling in the Maritimes is guesswork at the best of times.

I also saw a poll, I think on the globe and mail website, that showed Conservative/Liberal support solidifying and NDP/Green support softening up. It's a very strange dynamic now that the Tories are sliding and the Liberals are back in the game. I suspect a lot of people had been supporting Green/NDP candidates because they figured a Tory minority was a foregone conclusion; now that it's not, they might reconsider their support. *fingers crossed for a 2004-style NDP-to-Liberal shift*

Quick update: A friend of mine who worked in the PMO this past year confirmed your speculation, Verily: that Harper would be isolated by the caucus if he doesn't win a majority or a sizable minority on the 14th. Apparently, they truly believe their rhetoric about Dion not being a leader; a failure to beat Dion would send these guys into convulsions. It certainly would make for an interesting political sideshow, but all things considered I'd still rather see a Liberal government elected instead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All sorts of rumours have been coming out of that weirdly named riding. Probably best to ignore all of them.

[Hatman 🍁]

All sorts of rumours have been coming out of that weirdly named riding. Probably best to ignore all of them.

Central Nova? hmmm

It's hard to say what is happening, since I'm not there. Only know what the insiders are telling me. According to a few recent predictions on electionpredictions.org, I'm not the only one that knows this though.

[Verily]

All sorts of rumours have been coming out of that weirdly named riding. Probably best to ignore all of them.

Central Nova? hmmm

It's hard to say what is happening, since I'm not there. Only know what the insiders are telling me. According to a few recent predictions on electionpredictions.org, I'm not the only one that knows this though.

About nine-tenths of all predictions made on electionprediction.com are made by hopeless party hacks who either have no idea what they're talking about or are intentionally misframing the situation.

[cp]

I just entered mine!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Just for fun: Conservatives to win the most seats is now trading at 83% on Intrade.  That's down from 97.9% a few weeks ago.

[Hash]

I just entered mine!

I do some stuff on ElectionPrediction when I feel like it.

All sorts of rumours have been coming out of that weirdly named riding. Probably best to ignore all of them.

Central Nova? hmmm

It's hard to say what is happening, since I'm not there. Only know what the insiders are telling me. According to a few recent predictions on electionpredictions.org, I'm not the only one that knows this though.

About nine-tenths of all predictions made on electionprediction.com are made by hopeless party hacks who either have no idea what they're talking about or are intentionally misframing the situation.

This is a good portrait of what you're saying:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

lol

[Verily]

That one is amusing, certainly, but I was thinking more along the lines of this one from Random-Burin-St. George's:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The one you provided was too obvious. This one manages to lie (Kilgour was from Edmonton, Alberta, not Newfoundland) and spin an irrelevancy as the key issue while ignoring factors on the ground such as massive Conservative unpopularity in NL.

[2952-0-0]

The September economic numbers (unemployment, GDP growth, inflation, etc) will be released tomorrow.

People will have four days to think over them when considering their vote.

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 33 (0)
LPC: 29 (0)
NDP: 20 (0)
BQ: 10 (-1)
GPC: 7 (0)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 42 (-3)
LPC: 19 (-2)
CPC: 19 (-1)
NDP: 17 (+4)
GPC: 3 (+1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 35 (+1)
LPC: 24 (-1)
NDP: 20 (0)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 41 (+1)
LPC: 21 (0)
CPC: 17 (0)
NDP: 15 (0)
GPC: 6 (-1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 32 (+1)
LPC: 27 (0)
NDP: 19 (-1)
GPC: 12 (-1)
BQ: 8 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 36 (0)
LPC: 29 (+1)
CPC: 22 (+1)
NDP: 8 (-2)
GPC: 4 (-1)

[Hash]

Stuff, rumours on advanced voting.

Presented here in a non-hack fashion. The overall trend is that it's down nationally, but up 16% (if I remember the article correctly) in Quebec.

[Smid]

Dion is a moron!

How could anyone possibly think that this idiot could do a better job as PM than Harper???

Hopefully after this election, Layton will be the Official Opposition Leader, because he'd do a far better job than this.

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=mv-5biChVrA

[Smid]

With the weekend being Canadian Thanksgiving, this will dominate the news cycle from now until the election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Dion is a moron!

How could anyone possibly think that this idiot could do a better job as PM than Harper???

Hopefully after this election, Layton will be the Official Opposition Leader, because he'd do a far better job than this.

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=mv-5biChVrA

Something we can agree on

[Smid]

Dion is a moron!

How could anyone possibly think that this idiot could do a better job as PM than Harper???

Hopefully after this election, Layton will be the Official Opposition Leader, because he'd do a far better job than this.

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=mv-5biChVrA

Something we can agree on

I was thinking of you when I typed it, although I stand by the comments I made - I seriously believe that Layton is a better leader than Dion, and would make a more effective Opposition Leader to Dion, and I agree with a comment by Benjamin Disraeli - that a strong opposition contributes to sound government (paraphrase). I think that the Grits are not ready to govern - and this is not just Dion, I think they need to use their time in opposition to develop policies and do the groundwork for when they govern - they haven't done this in the time they've been in opposition, and it's something they need to do and they won't be ready to govern until they do.

So far, Layton has acted more like an Opposition Leader than Dion has. Dion complains about legislation, before supporting it to try to avoid the government falling, thus triggering an election.

Layton has more leadership qualities than Dion. The NDP has a more comprehensive policy than the Grits. All in all, the NDP would make a superior official opposition than the Grits.

[cinyc]

Dion is a moron!

How could anyone possibly think that this idiot could do a better job as PM than Harper???

Hopefully after this election, Layton will be the Official Opposition Leader, because he'd do a far better job than this.

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=mv-5biChVrA

To be fair to Mr. Dion, it was a fairly complex question.  But instead of asking for three retakes, Mr. Dion should have done what any politician who is asked a somewhat incomprehensible question would do - answer the question he wanted to answer and let the interviewer follow up if he wasn't satisfied with the answer.  Is Mr. Dion going to get three retakes at 3AM when the telephone at 24 Sussex rings with a crisis?

Nevertheless, even if the initial response is somewhat understandable, Liberal MP Geoff Regan really messed up when he blamed the situation on Mr. Dion's alleged hearing impairment on Mike Duffy Live.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnYjIw4nAYs

That explanation isn't even close to plausible.  And the dead silence was cringe worthy.

Not good for the Liberals.  And with the holiday weekend coming up, this might be the last most Canadians see of Mr. Dion before Election Day.

[Smid]

Dion is a moron!

How could anyone possibly think that this idiot could do a better job as PM than Harper???

Hopefully after this election, Layton will be the Official Opposition Leader, because he'd do a far better job than this.

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=mv-5biChVrA

To be fair to Mr. Dion, it was a fairly complex question.  But instead of asking for three retakes, Mr. Dion should have done what any politician who is asked a somewhat incomprehensible question would do - answer the question he wanted to answer and let the interviewer follow up if he wasn't satisfied with the answer.  Is Mr. Dion going to get three retakes at 3AM when the telephone at 24 Sussex rings with a crisis?

Nevertheless, even if the initial response is somewhat understandable, Liberal MP Geoff Regan really messed up when he blamed the situation on Mr. Dion's alleged hearing impairment on Mike Duffy Live.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnYjIw4nAYs

That explanation isn't even close to plausible.  And the dead silence was cringe worthy.

Not good for the Liberals.  And with the holiday weekend coming up, this might be the last most Canadians see of Mr. Dion before Election Day.

It wasn't really all that hard a question - "You say the Prime Minister's not doing a good job. What would you do if you were PM that would be different?"

That video you posted was fantastic! Geoff Regan completely dropped the ball there. Too bad it doesn't go on to show the other two give responses - Joe Comartin would have been fantastic to hear there, I bet he would have savaged him! He's one of the best the NDP has.

[cp]

He's one of the best the NDP has.

A sad comment about the NDP, but I digress . . .

I think the silence in the Regan interview was a technical problem, not a fumble. It still doesn't look good, but it's not something Regan can be held responsible for.

As for Dion's video, it's quite clear that he was having trouble comprehending the question, but as to whether that's a problem with his English or a problem with his hearing is unknown. He hasn't shown this kind of response to equally vague questions in the past; this episode stands as an outlier rather than the norm. I suspect that if he really had that level of difficulty with his English comprehension he would not have risen as far as he has. Also, a hearing impairment would make it difficult for him to learn to speak another language, so this might explain the persistence of his thick French accent despite so much exposure to English.

Whether or not you like Dion, it's not appropriate to mock him for a physical impairment. Even if you think it disqualifies him for the job, using it as an attack is crude and malicious. The Tories are treading on thin ice by making an issue of this (remember their attack on Chretien in 93?). This isn't the same situation, of course, but it's something they should have left to the media to inflate and repeat. Even if it works, this kind of thing leaves a bad taste in people's mouths.