Canada 2008: Official Thread

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 32 (-1)
LPC: 28 (+1)
NDP: 22 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (0)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 42 (0)
LPC: 20 (+1)
NDP: 17 (-2)
CPC: 16 (0)
GPC: 5 (+1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (-2)
LPC: 26 (+2)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (-1)
CPC: 20 (+2)
LPC: 19 (-1)
NDP: 14 (0)
GPC: 6 (-2)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 35 (+1)
LPC: 25 (-1)
NDP: 18 (0)
GPC: 11(-1)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 41 (+1)
CPC: 23 (-1)
LPC: 21 (-1)
NDP: 8 (+1)
GPC: 5 (0)

[Meeker]

Is it possible for the Liberals to lose the popular vote yet win more ridings?

[cp]

It's possible, though not plausible. It's very rare that the popular vote winner doesn't win the most seats, even in highly splintered elections like this one. The only way I could see it happening on Tuesday is with the Liberals doing disproportionately well seatwise in Ontario but losing support in the East, West, and Quebec. This would involve a swing of Green/NDP support to the Libs outside the GTA; enough to push them over the top in close races with the Tories. Still, it's very unlikely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Angus Reid poll of Saskatchewan...

Con 40%, NDP 35%, Lib 17%, Green 7%

[Хahar 🤔]

If this were to actually take place, would the NDP win more than a couple seats?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If this were to actually take place, would the NDP win more than a couple seats?

If (if, if, if...) the Party really does trail by just 5pts they could end up with just a seat here and a seat there or come close to sweeping the province. It would depend on where that sort of increase in their vote were to come from, basically. Voting patterns in Saskatchewan can be a little strange and the riding boundaries are... special.

[Хahar 🤔]

If this were to actually take place, would the NDP win more than a couple seats?

If (if, if, if...) the Party really does trail by just 5pts they could end up with just a seat here and a seat there or come close to sweeping the province. It would depend on where that sort of increase in their vote were to come from, basically. Voting patterns in Saskatchewan can be a little strange and the riding boundaries are... special.

Special in what sort of way?

[Hatman 🍁]

If this were to actually take place, would the NDP win more than a couple seats?

If (if, if, if...) the Party really does trail by just 5pts they could end up with just a seat here and a seat there or come close to sweeping the province. It would depend on where that sort of increase in their vote were to come from, basically. Voting patterns in Saskatchewan can be a little strange and the riding boundaries are... special.

Special in what sort of way?

Ever notice how there are no urban seats in that province? And where do you think the NDP supporters are? Mind you, it means with enough boost in the polls there, it can give the party a lot of seats, as they start falling. There are 8 "rurban" seats, and most of them are very polarized, and have produced very close election races in the past.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If this were to actually take place, would the NDP win more than a couple seats?

If (if, if, if...) the Party really does trail by just 5pts they could end up with just a seat here and a seat there or come close to sweeping the province. It would depend on where that sort of increase in their vote were to come from, basically. Voting patterns in Saskatchewan can be a little strange and the riding boundaries are... special.

Special in what sort of way?

Take a close look at the SW corner...

[Хahar 🤔]

The Boundary Commission did that?

[Hatman 🍁]

If this were to actually take place, would the NDP win more than a couple seats?

If (if, if, if...) the Party really does trail by just 5pts they could end up with just a seat here and a seat there or come close to sweeping the province. It would depend on where that sort of increase in their vote were to come from, basically. Voting patterns in Saskatchewan can be a little strange and the riding boundaries are... special.

Special in what sort of way?

Take a close look at the SW corner...

And, it's exactly the same in Saskatoon. Now, take a look at this:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Toronto:

[MaxQue]

The Boundary Commission did that?

Yes, because they were afraid to break the historical boundaries. The boundaries are like that since 1966.

[Smid]

how are you making these, anyways?

Basically they're sketches from other maps stiched together. Or something like that. Programme used is Paint, because I'm cheap.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, that one's awful...

I use paint, too. I usually highlight from a PDF using the snapshot tool and paste it into paint and then take it from there.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Boundary Commission did that?

Yes, because they were afraid to break the historical boundaries. The boundaries are like that since 1966.

They were reasonable in the 1980s, actually.

Each city should probably actually be divided into 3 districts. Either 3 rurban seats or one urban and two rurban seats.

[cp]

SK is the one province I don't know very well, so perhaps this is naive to ask but  . . .

would it really make a difference? There are plenty of urban ridings in Calgary and Edmonton but only one (or two if you count McClellan's old seat) has anything close to a real contest on the federal level. SK is the home of the old Reform and Western Alienation Parties so it seems unlikely that they'd go very far from the Tories, at least at the federal level.

If they do, though, that would be great news! It would give the NDP more seats, the Tories fewer, and it wouldn't provoke the acrimonious debate about dividing the left, as elsewhere in the country. Go NDP sweep of SK (except for Wascana )

[Hatman 🍁]

SK is the one province I don't know very well, so perhaps this is naive to ask but  . . .

would it really make a difference? There are plenty of urban ridings in Calgary and Edmonton but only one (or two if you count McClellan's old seat) has anything close to a real contest on the federal level. SK is the home of the old Reform and Western Alienation Parties so it seems unlikely that they'd go very far from the Tories, at least at the federal level.

If they do, though, that would be great news! It would give the NDP more seats, the Tories fewer, and it wouldn't provoke the acrimonious debate about dividing the left, as elsewhere in the country. Go NDP sweep of SK (except for Wascana )

It is naive, I think. Just look at provincial elections in the province, and also note that many of those rurban seats the NDP does well in. Where do you think those votes are? Certainly not in the rural bits.

[cp]

Provincial results don't necessarily beget federal ones, but I'll take your word for it.

On an anecdotal note, I spoke with my brother yesterday about his voting intentions. My brother is an arch-Conservative who literally spits on the signs of the BQ and PQ when he has the chance. Anyways, he said he nearly voted for David McGuinty (the Liberal candidate in Ottawa South). I was floored by that revelation - it's like hearing Laureen Harper say she was undecided about who to vote for. If the Tories are having trouble with that kind of support, anything's possible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and finally...

[cp]

You forgot the back river (Riviere des Prairies, between Montreal and Laval)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You forgot the back river (Riviere des Prairies, between Montreal and Laval)

Decided not to bother with it; I think I drew most of it as being inside the Laval seats (but I drew the outline of this a while before the individual ridings...)

[Хahar 🤔]

If this were to actually take place, would the NDP win more than a couple seats?

If (if, if, if...) the Party really does trail by just 5pts they could end up with just a seat here and a seat there or come close to sweeping the province. It would depend on where that sort of increase in their vote were to come from, basically. Voting patterns in Saskatchewan can be a little strange and the riding boundaries are... special.

Special in what sort of way?

Take a close look at the SW corner...

And, it's exactly the same in Saskatoon. Now, take a look at this:

My god. Who came up with those ideas?

[minionofmidas]

Judging by riding name history, I think they were invented in 1987.

---Overview of Saskatchewan Riding Names, 1907 to present---
(previously, the old NWT riding boundaries, some of which crossed the new 1905 province lines, remained in place. Small part of the pre-1907 Calgary riding was in Saskatchewan. EDIT: Slight correction: Although the new boundaries only passed into law in 1907, there was no general election during the interval, so it's purely scientific.)

1907 10: Assiniboia, Battleford, Humboldt, Mackenzie, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Qu'Appelle, Regina, Saltcoats, Saskatoon
1914 16: Assiniboia, Battleford, Humboldt, Kindersley, Last Mountain, Mackenzie, Maple Creek, Moose Jaw, North Battleford, Prince Albert, Qu'Appelle, Regina, Saltcoats, Saskatoon, Swift Current, Weyburn
1924 21: Assiniboia, Humboldt, Kindersley, Last Mountain, Long Lake, Mackenzie, Maple Creek, Melfort, Melville, Moose Jaw, North Battleford, Prince Albert, Qu'Appelle, Regina, Rosetown, Saskatoon, South Battleford, Swift Current, Weyburn, Willow Bunch, Yorkton
1933 21: Assiniboia, Humboldt, Kindersley, Lake Centre, Mackenzie, Maple Creek, Melfort, Melville, Moose Jaw, North Battleford, Prince Albert, Qu'Appelle, Regina City, Rosetown - Biggar, Rosthern, Saskatoon City, Swift Current, The Battlefords, Weyburn, Wood Mountain, Yorkton
1947 20: Assiniboia, Humboldt, Kindersley, Lake Centre, Mackenzie, Maple Creek, Meadow Lake, Melfort, Melville, Moose Jaw, Moose Mountain, Prince Albert, Qu'Appelle, Regina City, Rosetown - Biggar, Rosthern, Saskatoon, Swift Current, The Battlefords, Yorkton
1952 17: Assiniboia, Humboldt - Melfort¹, Kindersley, Mackenzie, Meadow Lake, Melville, Moose Jaw - Lake Centre, Moose Mountain, Prince Albert, Qu'Appelle, Regina City, Rosetown - Biggar, Rosthern, Saskatoon, Swift Current - Maple Creek², The Battlefords, Yorkton
1966 13: Assiniboia, Battleford - Kindersley, Mackenzie, Meadow Lake, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Qu'Appelle - Moose Mountain, Regina East, Regina - Lake Centre, Saskatoon - Biggar, Saskatoon - Humboldt, Swift Current - Maple Creek, Yorkton - Melville
1976 14: Assiniboia, Humboldt - Lake Centre, Kindersley - Lloydminster, Mackenzie, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Qu'Appelle - Moose Mountain, Regina East, Regina West, Saskatoon East, Saskatoon West, Swift Current - Maple Creek, The Battlefords - Meadow Lake, Yorkton - Melville
1987 14: Kindersley - Lloydminster, Mackenzie, Moose Jaw - Lake Centre, Prince Albert - Churchill River, Regina - Lumsden, Regina - Qu'Appelle, Regina - Wascana, Saskatoon - Clark's Crossing, Saskatoon - Dundurn, Saskatoon - Humboldt, Souris - Moose Mountain, Swift Current - Maple Creek - Assiniboia, The Battlefords - Meadow Lake, Yorkton - Melville
1996 14: Battlefords - Lloydminster, Blackstrap, Churchill River³, Cypress Hills - Grasslands, Palliser, Prince Albert, Regina - Lumsden - Lake Centre⁴, Regina - Qu'Appelle⁵, Saskatoon - Humboldt, Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar⁶, Souris - Moose Mountain, Wanuskewin⁷, Wascana, Yorkton - Melville

There were boundary changes in the 2003 round of redistricting, but no name changes.

¹ Renamed Humboldt - Melford - Tisdale in 1961.
² As Swift Current. Renamed in 1953.
³ Renamed Desnethé - Missinippi - Churchill River in 2004.
⁴ As Regina - Arm River. Renamed in 1997.
⁵ As Qu'Appelle. Renamed in 1998.
⁶ As Saskatoon - Rosetown. Renamed in 1997.
⁷ Renamed Saskatoon - Wanuskewin in 2000.

[Hatman 🍁]

1988 riding map: http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/archives/5thedition/peopleandsociety/politicalgeography/mcr4167?w=4&h=4&l=2&r=0&c=0

[minionofmidas]

Cool. That has all the maps since the 1952 one (although that one's in another place than the post-66 maps, and not color-coded.) Oh and: I was right!