Canada 2008: Official Thread

[2952-0-0]

It still boggles my mind why the Liberals chose that doofus. From the beginning I didn't see him as a serious candidate at all.

[Hash]

Dion is a joke leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

It still boggles my mind why the Liberals chose that doofus. From the beginning I didn't see him as a serious candidate at all.

He was neither Ignatieff nor Rae.

[minionofmidas]

It still boggles my mind why the Liberals chose that doofus. From the beginning I didn't see him as a serious candidate at all.

He was neither Ignatieff nor Rae.

...who were joke candidates as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You know, I still have difficulty seeing Ignatieff as being a politician, rather than someone from late-night arts coverage on BBC 2.

[Hatman 🍁]

You know, I still have difficulty seeing Ignatieff as being a politician, rather than someone from late-night arts coverage on BBC 2.

Those for whom he had abandoned for all that time know him as nothing but.

[Verily]

It still boggles my mind why the Liberals chose that doofus. From the beginning I didn't see him as a serious candidate at all.

He was neither Ignatieff nor Rae.

...who were joke candidates as well.

Certainly Rae was. Ignatieff maybe less so, but I feel as if he'd make a better Cabinet member than PM. As I argued at the time, the only really good choice for the Liberals was Kennedy, who could have really revived the party and almost certainly won the next election. (I would probably support the Liberals rather than the Greens if Kennedy were leader.)

[Verily]

Anyway, what are our resident Canadians' thoughts on the whole Cadman-life insurance scandal?

[Hash]

Anyway, what are our resident Canadians' thoughts on the whole Cadman-life insurance scandal?

Typical stuff Harper would do.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Details?

[MaxQue]

This scandal begins in 2005.

In the month of May, the Liberal party has a minority government.
They make a budget.
Liberals + NPD: 151
BQ + Conservative: 152
Cadman, a independent (ex-conservative) MP, who had a cancer in the last  phase, supports Liberals and the government stays in office.
But the Conservative Party had try to buy the vote of Cadman.
In exchange of his vote, they were giving him a live insurance of one million dollar.
He declined the bribe.
That is the version of the book of his widow.

Chuck Cadman died one month and half after this vote.

[cp]

I'm not surprised, and not in the 'aren't Tories so evil' way. It's politics, rough and tumble, and of all the sins in the world to commit this one's pretty minor. I'm not sure whether this will take off into a major story (lasting longer than a week), but I wouldn't be surprised if it got quietly buried.

That said, if it does get a lot of exposure and there's enough to the allegations to make it stick, or even if there isn't, I expect it will leave a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths. Bribery is one thing, but bribing a dying man with a life insurance policy is just morbid. There's a kind of distasteful crassness and soulless ambition to it that would make anyone's skin crawl if they sat down to think about it.

I'm not sure about the law, but if this story has legs it's another straw on the camel's back that is public tolerance of Conservative Party policy and tactics. I doubt it's the one that will break it, but it certainly throws off any chance the Tories had to stay in charge of the message.

[cp]

 . . . just some more thoughts.

There's a lot of things about this story that don't add up:

1. Dona Cadman is the source of these allegations (via her statements in a biography released this month), yet she's also running for the Tories in her husband's old riding. What does she think she's doing? If she's telling the truth she's making a huge mess for the Party and the PM who, if the available evidence is to believed, would be criminally liable. If she's lying, she's making a slightly smaller mess, but one that all but assures her own defeat and earns her permanent exile from all future Tory governance.

2. Harper and his team are, if anything, quite litigious and meticulous. They MUST have known that something like this would get out, particularly from a disloyal loose cannon (from their perspective) like Cadman. This seems very out of character.

3. The offers, legal and illegal, alleged to have been made by the Tories don't make sense. The Tories claim they only offered to allow Cadman to return to the party unopposed in the next election. But they knew Cadman was on death's door and must have known he was unlikely to live till the writ was dropped, let alone run. It's a pretty flimsy offer if that's the only one they made.

On the other hand, if you looked for 1000 years you would never find a legitimate insurance broker who would sell a $1M policy to a man with terminal cancer, even if you did have connections in high places (which didn't include the Tory leadership in 2005, remember). I cannot imagine what the Tories thought they were going to do if Cadman accepted the offer.

[Verily]

Some calculations on the Westmount-Ville Marie by-election to keep things interesting. Assuming the swings are similar to those seen in Outremont:

Approx. 62% of Bloc vote switches to NDP. NDP gains 8%, 45-23
Approx. 50% of Green vote switches to NDP. NDP gains 4%, 45-27
Approx. 18% of Liberal vote switches to NDP. NDP gains 8%, Liberals lose 8%, 37-35

Then it all depends on what the Conservative voters do (and what Liberal-Conservative swingers do). The Conservatives start off in second, so being squeezed by the Liberals is more difficult than it might be otherwise, especially as the Liberals are clearly declining in Quebec. If there is further unwind (tactical or otherwise) to the Conservatives, the NDP could very well take Westmount-Ville Marie.

[Hash]

More and more signs pointing to a fall election apparently.

[Hash]

Harper set to trigger election call next week: PMO officials

Stephen Harper is poised to trigger an election call for Oct. 14, senior officials in the Prime Minister's Office said Friday.

The officials said no firm decision has been made, but that it is probable Harper will seek to dissolve his minority government next week, sending the country to the ballot box the day after Thanksgiving.

A meeting Friday between Harper and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe gave the prime minister little hope that a fall session of Parliament can be productive, the officials said.

Earlier Friday, Duceppe also suggested that a federal election is imminent, saying he and Harper had laid out their positions, but did not talk about compromises.

"We explained our positions and [Harper] will consider them. I told him what our position was on all of the issues. Now, I think that beyond that, he is determined to have an election," Duceppe said following the meeting at the prime minister's residence in Ottawa.

Duceppe is the first opposition leader to respond to Harper's call for one-on-one meetings. Harper has sought meetings with all three opposition leaders to see if they can agree on an agenda for the fall session of Parliament, scheduled to begin Sept. 15.

NDP Leader Jack Layton will meet with Harper at 24 Sussex Drive on Saturday.

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's office has told Harper he would be available to meet with the prime minister on Sept. 9, a day after three byelections are to be held in Quebec and Ontario.

Harper, however, has said he is unwilling to wait until Sept. 9 to discuss whether Parliament can continue as is.

PMO officials said Friday it is unlikely Harper will wait for a meeting with Dion to call the election.

[Hash]

Doesn't seem like there is much interest.

Anyways, crunching 3 recent polls.

Ipsos-Reid says
Con 33
Lib 31
NDP 16
Greenies 10
and

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and

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Nanos (SES) says
Lib 35
Con 33
NDP 17
Bloc 8
Greenies 7

in Quebec, Bloc @ 31, Tories at 25, Libs at 24, NDP at 13, and Greenies at 7. In Ontario, Libs ahead 42-29, NDP at 21, and Greenies at 8. Libs massively ahead (over 50%) in "Atlantic", but tiny sample there apparently, so take with a bag of salt.


Harris-Decima says
Lib 34
Con 33
NDP 15
Bloc 7
Greenies 9
and

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and

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and

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Other interesting nuggets there: 55 says the country is heading the right direction, but 47 say the country would be best served by changing government (lol)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That West Vancouver Liberal MP that got thrown out of the party for being a dodgy bastard (can't recall the details) is apparently about to join the Greenies.

[MaxQue]

That West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country Liberal MP that got thrown out of the party for being a dodgy bastard (can't recall the details) forgeting to say to Liberal Party the financial and legal problems with his restaurants, he refused to pay some employees, he didn't pay the GST, his contractors and a supplier, is apparently about to join the Greenies.

Corrected. Sorry, Hashemite. Your party is doing an error and his destroying his reputation only to be in leaders debates.

[Harry Hayfield]

Poll Average
Lib 33% (+3%) Con 33% (-3%) NDP 16% (-1%) Greens 9% (+5%) Bloc 8% (-2%)

Swing: 3% from Con to Lib

Forecast House of Commons
Liberals 136 (+33) Conservatives 105 (-19) Bloc 44 (-7) NDP 22 (-7) Ind 1 (n/c) Liberals short by 19 of an overall majority

Forecast Liberal Gains
From Bloc:Ahuntsic, Brome--Missisquoi, Brossard--La Prairie, Chicoutimi--Le Fjord,
Gatineau, Jeanne-Le Ber, Papineau
From Con:Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale, Barrie, Burlington,
Edmonton Centre, Essex, Fleetwood--Port Kells, Glengarry--Prescott--Russell, Halton, Kitchener--Conestoga, Niagara Falls, Northumberland--Quinte West, Ottawa--Orléans, Parry, Sound--Muskoka, Peterborough, Simcoe North, St. Catharines, Tobique--Mactaquac, Whitby--Oshawa, Winnipeg South
From NDP:Burnaby--Douglas, Hamilton East--Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain,
London--Fanshawe, Parkdale--High Park, Sault Ste. Marie, Trinity--Spadina

[minionofmidas]

So should I get a Canadian avatar yet?

[MaxQue]

Poll Average
Lib 33% (+3%) Con 33% (-3%) NDP 16% (-1%) Greens 9% (+5%) Bloc 8% (-2%)

Swing: 3% from Con to Lib

Forecast House of Commons
Liberals 136 (+33) Conservatives 105 (-19) Bloc 44 (-7) NDP 22 (-7) Ind 1 (n/c) Liberals short by 19 of an overall majority

Forecast Liberal Gains
From Bloc:Ahuntsic, Brome--Missisquoi, Brossard--La Prairie, Chicoutimi--Le Fjord,
Gatineau, Jeanne-Le Ber, Papineau
From Con:Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale, Barrie, Burlington,
Edmonton Centre, Essex, Fleetwood--Port Kells, Glengarry--Prescott--Russell, Halton, Kitchener--Conestoga, Niagara Falls, Northumberland--Quinte West, Ottawa--Orléans, Parry, Sound--Muskoka, Peterborough, Simcoe North, St. Catharines, Tobique--Mactaquac, Whitby--Oshawa, Winnipeg South
From NDP:Burnaby--Douglas, Hamilton East--Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain,
London--Fanshawe, Parkdale--High Park, Sault Ste. Marie, Trinity--Spadina

Good, but with a few errors. There is no way than Liberals can win in Chicoutimi--Le Fjord. They won there only because of Andre Harvey and now he quitted federal politics. Chicoutimi--Le Fjord will be a battle between BQ and Conservative. Liberal will be lucky to have 15%.

[Hash]

That West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country Liberal MP that got thrown out of the party for being a dodgy bastard (can't recall the details) forgeting to say to Liberal Party the financial and legal problems with his restaurants, he refused to pay some employees, he didn't pay the GST, his contractors and a supplier, is apparently about to join the Greenies.

Corrected. Sorry, Hashemite. Your party is doing an error and his destroying his reputation only to be in leaders debates.

I know and I'm obviously not thrilled with him joining the Greenies. In fact, I strongly disagree with the Green Party leadership.

[Kevin]

Shouldn't the Conservatives do better in Quebec this time around?

Like has been predicted by some?

[MaxQue]

Shouldn't the Conservatives do better in Quebec this time around?

Like has been predicted by some?

The polls don't agree. They are undecided between the same than 2006 or worse than 2006 for them. Kevin, don't support them. I think than Harper is more to the right than McCain.

But, now, polling Quebec is very difficult. Quebec's electors change their idea of vote every week.