Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hash]

Shouldn't the Conservatives do better in Quebec this time around?

Better than 2006? They did quite good in 2006 already. They got second place.

I heard from my aunt that many Bloc electors, who see independence as a lost cause, are thinking of switching to the Liberals to block Harper. Because Bloc voters hate Harper.

Shouldn't the Conservatives do better in Quebec this time around?

Like has been predicted by some?

The polls don't agree. They are undecided between the same than 2006 or worse than 2006 for them. Kevin, don't support them. I think than Harper is more to the right than McCain.

But, now, polling Quebec is very difficult. Quebec's electors change their idea of vote every week. 

Agreed. Quebec has very wild swings from election to election.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

What a choice! Stephen Harper or Stéphane Dion, I'm not sure who's worse

Judging from the latest polling the Conservatives seem to have an edge over the Liberals. I'm by no means an expert on Canadian politics, however I would have thought that with the Liberals gains in recent by-elections that they'd at least be tied or have an edge over the Tories. My question is why haven't Dion's Liberals capitalised on these gains?

[cp]

I've been out of the country for a while so my ear isn't quite as close to the ground as it should be but . . .

Dion's still shaky atop the Liberal Party. He hasn't really earned the benefit of the doubt from his caucus and he's made enough strategic errors for legitimate doubts about him to persist. Also, he's still personally unpopular in Quebec. Together these problems make people reluctant to swing their support to the Liberals despite their dissatisfaction with the Tories.

As for the various parties' chances in the next election, the conventional wisdom is that since the Tories have such a huge organizational advantage they're bound to pick up seats, particularly in Quebec where falling support for the Bloc (whether or not it shifts to the Tories) means they gain seats.

That said, the Tories are still weak in urban centres and with several key demographics. In addition their tenure has been marked by a rather acerbic attitude toward Ontario where they might have picked up seats, particularly if the Liberals ran weak against the NDP. This looks unlikely as the Liberal machine in Ontario is still quite strong and the NDP is stagnant.

The big question, thrillingly given centre stage today with Blair Wilson's floor crossing, is what role the Green Party will play in all this. With a sitting MP it's likely that Elizabeth May will get to be in the leaders debates. This is significant both for the exposure of the Green Party and the dynamics of the race. The Greens, and May herself in particular, have an affinity for the Liberals so they'll be more likely to work toward their advantage, which is to say attacking the Conservatives and nipping at the heels of the NDP. Greens tend to draw their support evenly from all parties but if May outshines/distracts Layton or throws enough mud at Harper you could see the dynamics shift wildly.

It's also worth noting that now that there's a real Green presence in the race and Harper's preferred election date falls over a Jewish holiday, he could have to rethink his election call. If he does, and the by-elections on the 8th go ahead, it's a whole new ball game.

[Hash]

What a choice! Stephen Harper or Stéphane Dion, I'm not sure who's worse

Harper. Dion's only problem is his total lack of charisma and his strong accent in English. Harper, on the other hand, is not charismatic either, but he has hard-right and environment-hating policies.

Judging from the latest polling the Conservatives seem to have an edge over the Liberals.

Not really. Neither the Tories nor the Libs have an edge.

I'm by no means an expert on Canadian politics, however I would have thought that with the Liberals gains in recent by-elections that they'd at least be tied or have an edge over the Tories.

1. Which gains? In the last two series of by-elections, the Liberals had a net loss of 2 seats. One, Outremont, which was considered to be a Liberal stronghold (however, Quebec has wild swings).
2. If you look at the three polls I posted today in this very thread, the Liberals are tied with the Tories or slightly "ahead".

My question is why haven't Dion's Liberals capitalised on these gains?

Because they don't exist

[Cubby]

I support both the Liberals and the NDP. Since I won't be voting there I have that option

Do the Liberals, NDP and Greens differ on any important issues? I worry that three left wing parties will lead to a bigger Conservative victory over a divided opposition.

We've been waiting for this for over 2 years now. Who gets the most credit for making Harper's Gov't last this long? I assume the Liberals, because they knew Dion wasn't ready yet.

[Hash]

We've been waiting for this for over 2 years now. Who gets the most credit for making Harper's Gov't last this long? I assume the Liberals, because they knew Dion wasn't ready yet.

Liberals of course. Dion has been totally incompetent as leader of the opposition.

[cp]

The Liberals, NDP, and Green do differ on various aspects of policy but they're rather nuanced and complicated to explain. The main point is that they differ less with each other than they do with the Conservatives.

The longevity of the 39th Parliament owes to a lot of factors. Liberal weakness has to be at the top of the list. A year-long leadership race followed by a year-long baptism by fire for the leader chosen precluded any legitimate chance that the Liberals would bring down the government.

Dion doesn't deserve all the blame for this, though. The Liberals have a weak financial structure that's been in the making for almost a decade. Their problems in Quebec are rooted in the previous leaders' actions (though Dion has been unable to do anything to correct this) and the Liberals are still adjusting to being in Opposition. 13 years of acting like a governing party doesn't get unlearned that fast.

Finally, whether or not Dion is worthwhile on his own merits the Conservatives have worked overtime to convince people he isn't. Their attack ads, which are a by-product of their monetary advantage, made it difficult for Liberals to gain much traction in the media or in parliament.

[Hash]

Papineau

Oh noes.

[Budd Dwyer moment].

[Hatman 🍁]

I support both the Liberals and the NDP. Since I won't be voting there I have that option

Do the Liberals, NDP and Greens differ on any important issues? I worry that three left wing parties will lead to a bigger Conservative victory over a divided opposition.

We've been waiting for this for over 2 years now. Who gets the most credit for making Harper's Gov't last this long? I assume the Liberals, because they knew Dion wasn't ready yet.

Canada only has one major left wing party. Neither the Liberals nor the Greens can be characterized as such.

[Хahar 🤔]

It says a lot about Harper that Dion may well form a government.

In other news, I'm pissed off that the election is so close to the American election. And the Liberals are pretty close to our Democrats (that is, not leftist).

[Hatman 🍁]

It says a lot about Harper that Dion may well form a government.

In other news, I'm pissed off that the election is so close to the American election. And the Liberals are pretty close to our Democrats (that is, not leftist).

Why would you be pissed off that the Liberals are not leftist?

[Meeker]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

[cinyc]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

Nothing yet - but it's hard to see how a fixed elections law can stop an election when there's a minority Parliament if nothing can get done.

I'm still not 100% convinced Prime Minister Harper is going to drop the writ.  He's played rough with the Liberals before and gotten them to cave to see his agenda passed.   Stephane Dion isn't a very strong leader.

[2952-0-0]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

As we've shown, nothing.

Especially if the person who passed it isn't going to follow it.

Has anyone else seen the Hail the Dear Leader Harper ads on TV?

[minionofmidas]

But, now, polling Quebec is very difficult. Quebec's electors change their idea of vote twice every week. 

Fixed your post.

[minionofmidas]

It says a lot about Harper that Dion may well form a government.

And it says a lot about Dion that Harper may well form another government.

Go NDP!

[Dan the Roman]

I'm not sure how reliable the polls are now for predicting what will happen. My memory of both 2004 and 2006 is that the Liberals had a substantial lead when the elections were called, imploded after two weeks, and the Conservatives then surged into majority territory, only to fall back in the final week. They just didn't fall as hard in 2006.

The polls, while showing a close race, are much better for the Conservatives than the ones when the 2006 election was called. Depending on the polls the Liberals were up between 5 and 12 points when the election was called.

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/2006/polls.php

SES had Liberals 37% Conservatives 29% NDP 15% Bloc 14% on December 1st 2005

Leger had Liberals 39% Conservatives 27% NDP 16% Bloc 12% on December 7th 2006

Decima had Liberals 36% Conservatives 28% NDP 19% Bloc 12% on December 1st 2005

So I would say the Conservatives are probably much better placed than the current polls indicate. They have a massive organizational and financial advantage, and once the campaign gets going, Dion will get a ton of face time which will not be to the Liberals' advantage.

[Smid]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

If the Liberals want Harper to follow fixed election dates, they should have let him pass the Bill.

[Hash]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

If the person who passed it doesn't feel like following it, not much.

[Smid]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

If the person who passed it doesn't feel like following it, not much.

It didn't pass - the Liberals blocked it.

[Hash]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

If the person who passed it doesn't feel like following it, not much.

It didn't pass - the Liberals blocked it.

False.

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[Verily]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

Make Harper look so noble. It was a complete farce.

As for polling, remember also that the Liberals were in power in 2004 and 2006. I would not expecte the Liberals to suddenly collapse during this campaign, although you can;t rule that out (nor could you rule out a Conservative collapse). Anyway, I think Harper will probably let the Sept 8 by-elections happen since the Liberals are likely to be humiliated in at least one, then call an election.

[minionofmidas]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

If the person who passed it doesn't feel like following it, not much.

It didn't pass - the Liberals blocked it.

False.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So Parliament can still be dissolved early under this bill, it's just that there's an automatic date fixing mechanism in case it lasts its term? Or did they also shorten the maximum term from 5 to 4 years?

[Hash]

That poll was posted on page 3 *yawn*

[Хahar 🤔]

It says a lot about Harper that Dion may well form a government.

In other news, I'm pissed off that the election is so close to the American election. And the Liberals are pretty close to our Democrats (that is, not leftist).

Why would you be pissed off that the Liberals are not leftist?

I didn't say I was.