Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2006 results:

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 33 (+1)
LPC: 27 (-1)
NDP: 22 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 9 (+1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 42 (0)
LPC: 21 (+1)
CPC: 16 (0)
NDP: 15 (-2)
GPC: 6 (+1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 35 (0)
LPC: 26 (+1)
NDP: 18 (0)
GPC: 10 (-1)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 43 (+2)
PLC: 23 (+2)
CPC: 19 (-4)
NDP: 9 (+1)
GPC: 4 (-1)

[Хahar 🤔]

Nice map.

I notice some very weird riding boundaries north of the St. Lawrence for the 1st Parliament.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Testing out the colours for the party maps using Montreal:

[Smid]

Elizabeth May's hidden agenda:

GREEN SUPPORTER: ELIZABETH MAY HAS SOLD US OUT !
SENATOR MAY ? ENVIRONMENT MINISTER MAY ?
Where does Green Party leader Elizabeth May get her marching orders ? Increasingly it is becoming clear that it is not from her party members. With less than 48 hours to go before voters go to the polls across Canada, emotions are running high inside campaigns faltering within sight of the finish line. 50 so-called 'close ridings', in particular, are being pitched to May as do-or-die ridings where she can 'lead Greens to make a difference', presumably by inciting Green supporters to not vote Green, the idea being to support your party by not voting for it, a novel concept to say the least. In recent hours, Bourque has heard from a number of senior political operatives, notably a very senior Liberal organizer who admittedly worked on the leadership bid of one of Stephane Dion's rivals, in other words someone who has much to gain if Dion and his Green Shift are soundly defeated Tuesday. Yet, this still-very-active politico tells Bourque he fears a secret deal has been cooked between Dion and Elizabeth May (both unabashed disciples of ex-pat Kyoto godfather Maurice Strong, and both currently immersed in a vociferous round of 'doth protest too much' denial about a secret deal) which may explain why she has been meeting with "key Liberal organizers" and is now actively telling Green Party supporters to vote Liberal, of all things. This, according to our Liberal insider, in exchange for a possible Senate seat and a place as Environment Minister in a Dion-led government. To be clear, Ms May's curious strategy of backing Dion is creating ill-will within her own party to the point that "a lot of Green candidates are upset", according to one national news report this morning. Add to that the fact Dion himself is urging Greenies to go red and join the Liberals. As one of Canada's top media personalities told Bourque tonight, "if i were a member of the Greens, if i were a candidate for the Greens, I would see her as a traitor, how could i possibly think of her as someone who wants to grow the Greens. She is simply behaving as an agent for the liberals". Surprisingly, top Green Party representatives are refusing to respond to a query from this organ as to what is the Party's current position on the Senate. Meanwhile, and fresh on the heels of Stephane Dion's Air Dud carbon-spewing campaign jet, now shocking news of the World Wildlife Fund's "25-day journey around the world by private jet", a $65,000 extravagance in "19 rows of spacious leather seats with full ergonomic support" enjoying "gourmet meals, chilled champagne [and] your own chef." All of which makes one wonder as to what lunacy is fueling the environmental set these days.

Source: http://www.bourque.com/

[Хahar 🤔]

Any base to this?

[Smid]

Any base to this?

The Bourque article has links to a couple of the comments made in the article.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SK is the one province I don't know very well, so perhaps this is naive to ask but  . . .

would it really make a difference? There are plenty of urban ridings in Calgary and Edmonton but only one (or two if you count McClellan's old seat) has anything close to a real contest on the federal level.

The NDP's base in Saskatchewan and Manitoba these days is with 20th century working class immigrants (and (actually mostly, of course) their descendents in urban areas. Even in 2004 polls full of such people in Regina and Saskatoon went strongly NDP.

[MaxQue]

Last polls of elections, elections tomorrow.

Nanos later today

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (0)
LPC: 26 (0)
NDP: 18 (-1)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 41 (+1)
CPC: 24 (+4)
LPC: 17 (-2)
NDP: 12 (-2)
GPC: 5 (-1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 34 (-1)
LPC: 25 (-1)
NDP: 19 (+1)
BQ: 11 (+2)
GPC: 9 (-1)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 46 (+3)
PLC: 18 (-5)
CPC: 17 (-2)
NDP: 12 (+3)
GPC: 5 (+1)

[Хahar 🤔]

There is one thing on which I have noticed the Canada Elections Act is very unclear. Is the date for the next election October 19, 2009 or October 15, 2012? The latter date makes more sense, but there does not seem to be any text providing an opt-out to the 2009 date in case of an early election.

[Hatman 🍁]

There is one thing on which I have noticed the Canada Elections Act is very unclear. Is the date for the next election October 19, 2009 or October 15, 2012? The latter date makes more sense, but there does not seem to be any text providing an opt-out to the 2009 date in case of an early election.

Yeah, I know. I brought this up once, and had a memo sent to our democratic reform critic. Never heard back. oh well.

Anyways...

PREDICTIONS TIME!

Everyone, use my map (or Al's) to make their predictions! Here's mine:



Cons: 123
Libs: 93
BQ: 53
NDP: 37
Ind: 2

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can I use my map with your Alberta and Northern Ontario [qm]

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 34 (+1)
LPC: 27 (0)
NDP: 21 (+1)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 40 (-2)
LPC: 22 (+1)
CPC: 19 (+3)
NDP: 13 (-2)
GPC: 6 (0)

[Hatman 🍁]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 34 (+1)
LPC: 27 (0)
NDP: 21 (+1)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (-1)

should be -1 for the NDP

[Хahar 🤔]

There is one thing on which I have noticed the Canada Elections Act is very unclear. Is the date for the next election October 19, 2009 or October 15, 2012? The latter date makes more sense, but there does not seem to be any text providing an opt-out to the 2009 date in case of an early election.

Yeah, I know. I brought this up once, and had a memo sent to our democratic reform critic. Never heard back. oh well.

By all means please bring it up again.

Any reason in particular you have the NDP wnining Rosetown?

[Hash]

There is one thing on which I have noticed the Canada Elections Act is very unclear. Is the date for the next election October 19, 2009 or October 15, 2012? The latter date makes more sense, but there does not seem to be any text providing an opt-out to the 2009 date in case of an early election.

Yeah, I know. I brought this up once, and had a memo sent to our democratic reform critic. Never heard back. oh well.

By all means please bring it up again.

Any reason in particular you have the NDP wnining Rosetown?

My personal prediction thing has the NDP winning too. I don't remember why I put that down as NDP, but there was a reason.

[minionofmidas]

electionprediction.org has that seat flipping too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My personal prediction thing has the NDP winning too. I don't remember why I put that down as NDP, but there was a reason.

Tory incumbent didn't win by much, is generally thought of as being pretty popular and is retiring. The riding's quart of Saskatoon is the most working class and most NDP part of the city.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, no incumbent, and one poll had the NDP down by just 5 points in Saskatchewan.

[Hash]

Angus Reid poll

Oh dear God.

[Hash]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 34 (+1)
LPC: 27 (0)
NDP: 21 (+1)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (-1)

Greenies at 6 in Ontario. Sorry, not buying that.

[Hash]

Random sign report from Quebec: I was in Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel, which is obviously a Liberal stronghold. Apart from a lot of Liberal and Tory signs, I saw only one NDP sign, and a few Green Party generic signs. Very few Bloc signs there. But a lot in other constituencies. Mulcair has a lot of signs up in Outremont, even a few house signs. But apart from there, I've seen very few NDP signs (save for a random few in Laurier-Sainte Marie).

Joliette, which is a small-c conservative-nationalist stronghold, has a sh**tload of Bloc signs for Pierre Paquette. Also a few signs for the generic Tory candidate. Unsurprisingly, absolutely no Liberal sign anywhere, or NDP signs (though I did see a huge NDP sign on the highway in Repentigny). A few Green signs in Joliette, though.

Michael Fortier has a sh**tload of signs up in Vaudreuil-Soulanges.

[minionofmidas]

Westmount - Ville Marie would be interesting...

[Hash]

Westmount - Ville Marie would be interesting...

Didn't go there, sadly.

[cp]

I have a friend of mine who lives in Verdun but works at McGill (in Westmount-Ville Marie). He says it's a sea of Liberal signs, with the Tories, Bloc, and NDP tying for a distant second, having about equal shares of signs but in very regional proportion: Bloc in NDG, Tories in Westmount proper, NDP in the lip of St. Henri.

Just for the hell of it: Predictions!

I'm still very divided about what the electorate will do. Assuming the polls are mostly right, I'll make one prediction.

Tories: 128
Libs: 99
Bloc: 48
NDP: 30
Green: 1
Ind: 2

Assuming there's an unforeseen shift, a la 2004, I'll make another prediction.

Libs: 117
Tories: 110
Bloc: 52
NDP: 27
Green: 0
Ind: 2


The reason for the split prediction is that, despite its complete lack of attention in every story about polling in the past two years, almost every poll taken has about 5-10% of the electorate stating 'undecided' or something equivalent. The Liberals have made up enough ground in the last week - helped mostly by the financial crisis and the crisis of Conservative confidence (too many c-words, sorry) because of their mollification in Quebec - to pull of a squeaker of a win. I'd say the likelihood of this scenario is 1:3, so even I'd be surprised if that was the case. But it's close enough to warrant it.

Oh and just for Earl:

Tories: 2
Liberals: 153
Greens: 153
Bloc: 0
Ind: 1
NDP: -1

Good luck to all your favoured candidates, everyone!