Canada 2008: Official Thread
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Author Topic: Canada 2008: Official Thread  (Read 92884 times)
MaxQue
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« Reply #725 on: October 13, 2008, 04:13:23 PM »
« edited: October 14, 2008, 12:17:04 AM by MaxQue »



Cons: 121
Libs: 90
BQ: 55
NDP: 40
Ind: 2
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cp
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« Reply #726 on: October 13, 2008, 04:24:19 PM »

Good map, Max, but . . .

- Papineau's not staying with the bloc.

- Quebec City isn't going for them *that* much, either. Give the Tories another seat or two.

- If the NDP breaks through in Saskatchewan it will be with more than just one seat

- Sudbury's probably staying Liberal

- Danny Williams' word is enough for most Newfoundlanders: the Tories will probably be wiped out in the province.

- I've heard reliable evidence that Olivia Chow is in serious trouble; I'm just saying . . .

- and lastly: May sweeps Central Nova and some of the votes spill over to Kings-Hants and Brison's replaced by a Green too Tongue
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #727 on: October 13, 2008, 04:27:16 PM »

- If the NDP breaks through in Saskatchewan it will be with more than just one seat
If we break through, it'll be with more than two seats. That one seat should be winnable without breaking through.
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I suppose you mean Kenora. Sudbury's Liberal on that map.
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Avalon's really too close to call. Although if I had to, I too would give the Libs the edge.
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...all the way to a very strong third place.
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Verily
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« Reply #728 on: October 13, 2008, 04:28:47 PM »

Do you really think the Bloc will win back Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean?

Also, since it never hurts to be optimistic, I'm predicting Nunavut and Guelph as Green gains.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #729 on: October 13, 2008, 04:30:42 PM »

Election Prediction Project's final numbers...

Con 125, Lib 94, NDP 36, BQ 51, Ind 2

Overall their predictions are very (small "c") conservative and "safe"; most incumbents are predicted to win and basically the only areas where large numbers of seats are expected to fall are those with large numbers of seats decided by hardy anything last time round. There are exceptions to this, obviously. Usually they've done quite well, but I think there's a chance that this conservatism could cause things to go as badly for them as Quebec 2003. Probably not, actually, but it's possible.
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cp
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« Reply #730 on: October 13, 2008, 04:32:57 PM »

Oh Verily, I wish I had your optimism. I hope you're right, of course.

Yes, you're right about that, Laurent, I meant Kenora. As for Central Nova, I'd love to see May win but it doesn't look like she's wooed enough votes to make it happen. I'd give her victory the same 1:3 chance I give to a Liberal minority. I also wouldn't put it past MacKay to steal the election, but that's just me.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #731 on: October 13, 2008, 04:35:46 PM »

Incidentally, I wouldn't write off Ittinuar either. Although my bet would be second, with Liberals first.
Guelph sounds like the kind of place where the Greens' potential at splitting the vote and letting teh Tories in is excellent, but their potential to win is nigh-on zero.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #732 on: October 13, 2008, 04:40:35 PM »

Peter Ittinuar. Ooooh. Now that's a blast from the past.
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cp
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« Reply #733 on: October 13, 2008, 04:42:52 PM »

You're right about the Greens being able to play spoiler in Guelph, but I don't think it will happen this time around.

The Tories were having trouble here during the by-election campaign, to the point where they were worried they'd come in third to the NDP. Though theoretically the Greens would be the ideal party to sap Liberal/NDP support and allow the rump Tory vote to take the lead, the Liberals have been out in full-force whipping their respective constituencies to tow the party line. I won't go so far as to say they'll keep the riding (the Tories have upped their game lately as well) but I seriously doubt the Greens will be the deciding factor.

Incidentally, if the Greens ARE the deciding factor, it probably means they've held onto their vote across the province, which means playing spoiler to all kinds of seats: Liberal, NDP, and Tory alike.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #734 on: October 13, 2008, 04:48:22 PM »

- Papineau's not staying with the bloc.

Trudeau is way overrated. In fact, Papineau is too close to call. I had to choose. You could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me.

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Conservatives fell very hard in Quebec's polls. Those seats were won by less than 1000 votes. You could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me.

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No, the electoral card is too gerrymandered. You could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me.

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Kenora will be three-way result. Anybody could win. I had to choose. Since the polling is very high for the NDP in Ontario...

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Avalon is too close to call. A NTV poll says than Conservative will win by 5%. You could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me.

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Probably. The result will be very tight. You could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me.

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No. That would be good to throw McKay out but no, that will not happen. The chance is 1/5, I think.

For Nunavut. Too close to call and too based on candidates for a good analysis. The conservative is the Health minister and the green is an ex-MP. For Roberval, you could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me. This is a too close to call riding, I had to choose.
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Verily
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« Reply #735 on: October 13, 2008, 04:53:15 PM »

Incidentally, I wouldn't write off Ittinuar either. Although my bet would be second, with Liberals first.
Guelph sounds like the kind of place where the Greens' potential at splitting the vote and letting teh Tories in is excellent, but their potential to win is nigh-on zero.

The Tories were falling flat in the by-election campaign; I don't see why the GE would be any different. If the Tories do manage second in Guelph (don't think they will), it will be a distant one and just barely ahead of the Greens.

Nunavut is total insanity. It could be Green, Liberal or Conservative, and I have absolutely no idea which is more likely to win. (Nor is a vote for any one candidate likely indicative of a second preference, so no "spoilers".) Ittinuar is definitely the strongest candidate, though.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #736 on: October 13, 2008, 04:58:02 PM »

This will be a great election, though it looks like Harper will win at this point.

Nunavut will be lots of fun. When do returns come in?
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cp
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« Reply #737 on: October 13, 2008, 05:01:57 PM »

I hope you're right. I honestly hadn't paid any attention to the North so this is all news to me.

I didn't express it well, but I do expect the Liberals to hold Guelph with the Greens not significantly affecting their victory margin. The NDP and Tories won't factor in much at all, most likley.

And Max, while I like Earl and respect his opinions, merely stating that the two of you agree on something is not really evidence or argumentation:P
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MaxQue
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« Reply #738 on: October 13, 2008, 05:04:45 PM »

I hope you're right. I honestly hadn't paid any attention to the North so this is all news to me.

I didn't express it well, but I do expect the Liberals to hold Guelph with the Greens not significantly affecting their victory margin. The NDP and Tories won't factor in much at all, most likley.

And Max, while I like Earl and respect his opinions, merely stating that the two of you agree on something is not really evidence or argumentation:P


I know. But I shouldn't be the only person who is questioned?
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« Reply #739 on: October 13, 2008, 05:20:50 PM »

The Bloc is not regaining Roberval-Lac St. Jean.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #740 on: October 13, 2008, 05:40:18 PM »

At least I can say I did my part to get rid of Gary Lunn.
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Smid
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« Reply #741 on: October 13, 2008, 05:51:09 PM »

At least I can say I did my part to get rid of Gary Lunn.

Good work. I hope you're successful in that endeavour.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #742 on: October 13, 2008, 06:23:24 PM »

i just noticed, nunavut has really horrible turnout.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #743 on: October 13, 2008, 06:31:20 PM »

i just noticed, nunavut has really horrible turnout.

I imagine it's very inconvenient to vote.
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Smid
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« Reply #744 on: October 13, 2008, 07:10:17 PM »

i just noticed, nunavut has really horrible turnout.

I noticed the same thing about Labrador the other week - a 10.86% margin sounds great, but it's really just 1240 voters. At those levels, 620 people change their minds or the Tories GOTV an extra 1250 people and you have a new MP. Of course, that's all easier said then done, but the turnout is obviously horrendous.
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« Reply #745 on: October 13, 2008, 07:12:02 PM »

Voting in the northern constituencies is weird and unpredictable.

I know candidate hometown plays a large part in Nunavut, at least, IIRC.
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Smid
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« Reply #746 on: October 13, 2008, 07:58:56 PM »

Voting in the northern constituencies is weird and unpredictable.

I know candidate hometown plays a large part in Nunavut, at least, IIRC.

That's what my fiancee said when I asked her about Labrador - that much of it is quite isolated, so it's difficult for people to get to the polls, so a lot just stay at home. I told her that in remote areas in Australia, we have a mobile polling booth go around a week or so before the election to allow people there to vote (and it also seems easier to postal vote over here). I can understand the difficulty, though. It being so cold and all.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #747 on: October 13, 2008, 08:43:23 PM »

Question; what sort of time (U.K time) will the first results start coming in?
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The Man From G.O.P.
TJN2024
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« Reply #748 on: October 13, 2008, 09:17:43 PM »

Repeat question, best place for Yanks to get live coverage on the interwebs, and other good sites.



And where in the hell did Democratic Space go???
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Verily
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« Reply #749 on: October 13, 2008, 09:23:51 PM »

Repeat question, best place for Yanks to get live coverage on the interwebs, and other good sites.



And where in the hell did Democratic Space go???

Ctv.ca will probably have some live streams available in the US. They did for Ontario and Quebec 2007.
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