Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Verily]

Don't Greens tend to overpoll?

Yes, they do.

Not in Ontario 2007, which implies that they are no longer overpolling.

Don't Greens tend to overpoll? I cannot see Quebec voting strongly Green and NDP, although the lower BQ numbers do help. Has Quebec suddenly become more federalist? I'm also shocked that the Greens are a point away from the Conservatives; even for Quebec that's sad. I thought Harper was trying to gain back the vote in Quebec... I guess he failed.

I'd like to see a Green actually win a seat. Maybe Elizabeth May can win one, or in Bruce or BC.

The NDP has a seat in Quebec now, so their numbers make sense. I'm surprised they're not higher, actually.

The Greens do tend to over poll, but the last provincial election in Ontario showed only a little bit of over polling. It's quite unfortunate, since the Greens are basically the NDP with an messed up intelligent economic policy.

Fixed.

[Verily]

She wont win, but a former Liberal backbencher in Quebec will be running for the NDP in Gatineau.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/ottawa/story/2008/02/25/ot-boivin-080225.html

It's rare to see a Liberal switch to the orange side, so I am happy to see this.  It looks like Mulcair may have started something.

Didn't the NDP do "well" there in 2006? Like 15% or something?

10%. Got 15% in nextdoor Hull-Aylmer.

Still one of their better ridings, but a former one-term MP is not going to take the NDP out of fourth place to victory.

[Verily]

Just interesting, Strategic Counsel had a poll in January of party leaders' favorability. Duceppe came on top (as usual) with 62%, followed by Harper on 58%, May on 56%, Layton on 55%... and Dion on 39%. Says a lot for why the Liberals are having trouble.

[Verily]

It still boggles my mind why the Liberals chose that doofus. From the beginning I didn't see him as a serious candidate at all.

He was neither Ignatieff nor Rae.

...who were joke candidates as well.

Certainly Rae was. Ignatieff maybe less so, but I feel as if he'd make a better Cabinet member than PM. As I argued at the time, the only really good choice for the Liberals was Kennedy, who could have really revived the party and almost certainly won the next election. (I would probably support the Liberals rather than the Greens if Kennedy were leader.)

[Verily]

Anyway, what are our resident Canadians' thoughts on the whole Cadman-life insurance scandal?

[Verily]

Some calculations on the Westmount-Ville Marie by-election to keep things interesting. Assuming the swings are similar to those seen in Outremont:

Approx. 62% of Bloc vote switches to NDP. NDP gains 8%, 45-23
Approx. 50% of Green vote switches to NDP. NDP gains 4%, 45-27
Approx. 18% of Liberal vote switches to NDP. NDP gains 8%, Liberals lose 8%, 37-35

Then it all depends on what the Conservative voters do (and what Liberal-Conservative swingers do). The Conservatives start off in second, so being squeezed by the Liberals is more difficult than it might be otherwise, especially as the Liberals are clearly declining in Quebec. If there is further unwind (tactical or otherwise) to the Conservatives, the NDP could very well take Westmount-Ville Marie.

[Verily]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

Make Harper look so noble. It was a complete farce.

As for polling, remember also that the Liberals were in power in 2004 and 2006. I would not expecte the Liberals to suddenly collapse during this campaign, although you can;t rule that out (nor could you rule out a Conservative collapse). Anyway, I think Harper will probably let the Sept 8 by-elections happen since the Liberals are likely to be humiliated in at least one, then call an election.

[Verily]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

Make Harper look so noble. It was a complete farce.

As for polling, remember also that the Liberals were in power in 2004 and 2006. I would not expecte the Liberals to suddenly collapse during this campaign, although you can;t rule that out (nor could you rule out a Conservative collapse). Anyway, I think Harper will probably let the Sept 8 by-elections happen since the Liberals are likely to be humiliated in at least one, then call an election.

I was just mentioning that the Conservatives have a history of doing better during the campaign, and with Dion as leader and potential Liberal PM, that probably will not change. Harper at least probably believes this, why else would he call an election when the polls are tied or show him behind?

The polls do not show the Conservatives "tied or behind". You could make a reasonable argument for the polls showing a tie, but the only polls showing the Liberals ahead are Nanos (which is basically an unknown but has consistently shown the best Liberal/worst Conservative numbers since they began polling about a year ago) and Decima (notoriously inclined to swing). Two other polls, Ipsos-Reid and Angus Reid, have shown the Conservatives leading by wider margins (although Angus Reid, which had the highest margin, has always given the Conservatives--and NDP--their best numbers of all of the polls). At best for the Liberals they have broken even; more likely, the Conservatives lead by a point or two.

As for Harper, this is as good as it gets. After two and a half years of minority, a totally incompetent Liberal opposition and a badly weakened BQ and Quebec sovereigntist movement, the Conservatives are still at only 32-36%. This is, quite simply, because the Conservatives probably can't break out of this margin except in short-lived bumps that wouldn't last an election campaign. Better to call an election where you're slightly favored than risk falling behind, which is exactly what might happen if this Parliament is allowed to run to expiration. (It might not happen, too, but even if it doesn't, things will be no better for Harper than they are right now, and I think he's realized this.) And, who knows, maybe the Liberals will campaign very poorly and hand the Conservatives an increased lead or even a majority.

[Verily]

The Greenies are supporting Bill Casey (Ind) in his NS riding.

So 2 less candidates than a full slate?

Yes. I reluctantly agree about not running a candidate against Bill Casey.

Gives some insight into the sort of campaign May will be running against MacKay, too. No Conservatives in Nova Scotia? It's more likely than you think. (Gerald Keddy only survives because of Liberal-NDP vote-splitting, but that may stop this time around because of the whole Atlantic Accord business in Nova Scotia.)

[Verily]

So, an election is called and a really quite disastrous poll for the Liberals comes out.

EKOS
Con: 37
Lib: 24
NDP: 19
Green: 10
BQ: 6

Of course, there are some weird regional breakdowns in there, and I doubt Harper is that far ahead. The breakdown in Quebec is of particular interest:

BQ: 26
Con: 25
NDP: 21
Lib: 18
Green: 7

[Verily]

BQ: 26
Con: 25
NDP: 21
Lib: 18
Green: 7

I'm sorry, but trash this.

I agree; there was a lot of weirdness in the poll. The NDP led in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada (!), the Liberals barely managed third ahead of the Greens in BC, the Greens were ahead of the NDP in Ontario, where the Conservatives narrowly led the Liberals. But it was amusing.

The only obvious result was 66% for the Conservatives in Alberta (Lib 17, NDP and Greens 8 each). But there's only one competitive seat in Alberta anyway, Edmonton-Strathcona.

[Verily]

Link to the poll?

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/election-is-harpers-to-lose/

Also, apparently someone in the Prairies said they'd vote for the Bloc ()

[Verily]

I agree; there was a lot of weirdness in the poll. The NDP led in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada (!), the Liberals barely managed third ahead of the Greens in BC, the Greens were ahead of the NDP in Ontario, where the Conservatives narrowly led the Liberals. But it was amusing.

The only obvious result was 66% for the Conservatives in Alberta (Lib 17, NDP and Greens 8 each). But there's only one competitive seat in Alberta anyway, Edmonton-Strathcona.

I expect the Liberals to take a little bit of hit in BC due to the "green shift" tax plan, especially in the more rural ridings.  BCers already have been hit with a carbon tax and aren't liking it much.

The Bloc receiving votes in the Prairies?  A confused Winnipeg Francophone, perhaps?  And the Dippers in the lead there?  Again, the Liberals may take a hit in the non-urban parts of the Prairies (likely to go Torie, anyway) due to the green shift, but would the Dippers really be the ones to take advantage of that?

You're totally misreading the green shift plan and applying US standards to it. Which is somewhat amusing, but anyway. the sort of people who might care are already voting NDP and probably have since the Alliance merged with the PCs. They're the Conservative-NDP swing voters.

The "rural ridings" in the west are, where they're not Conservative strongholds, NDP-Conservative battlegrounds. BC Southern Interior, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo (and the other Kamloops seats to a lesser extent), a lot of Saskatchewan seats, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, etc.

The NDP leading in the Prairies is not totally unrealistic, not if the Liberals are doing poorly in Winnipeg. In poor economic conditions as at present, I could, at least in theory, see those provinces switching heavily from the Conservatives to the NDP. The Prairies tend to bypass the Liberals.

But I have seen little evidence that the NDP stands much chance at winning any of their targets in Saskatchewan except maybe Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. The only rural areas where the Liberals win any votes at all are places with large First Nations populations (Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, for example). The NDP has traditional strength in Saskatchewan particularly, which for a long time was the party's base. (2004 was the first election the NDP failed to win a seat there.)


Something interesting: Jack Harris seems very likely to stand for the NDP in St. John's East, which he won spectacularly in a by-election back in 1987. It's hard to see the Conservatives holding on anywhere in Newfoundland given the particular conditions working against them, and the talk is that the NDP may sweep the two St. John's seats on the back of Harris. Avalon will be a Conservative-Liberal battle, but that will probably fall to the Liberals, too.

[Verily]

You're totally misreading the green shift plan and applying US standards to it. Which is somewhat amusing, but anyway. the sort of people who might care are already voting NDP and probably have since the Alliance merged with the PCs. They're the Conservative-NDP swing voters.

I'm not misreading the green shift plan or applying U.S. standards to it.  Dion claims it will be revenue neutral and not make taxpayers worse off, but 1) Dion's a terrible salesman (largely in part because he doesn't speak English well - what's a carpool?) and 2) that's not the reality for farmers and rural residents unless the plan has been significantly revised.  Promises of revisions to the plan is not the same thing as actually doing it.

You're not misreading the green shift plan, you're misreading the electorate. This is not a big issue to rural voters.

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B.C. races tend to be more three-way than anything else.  In most B.C. ridings held by Conservatives - including the rural ones - the Liberals and Dippers often were within 5 points of each other, even in defeat.[/quote]

In urban and suburban ridings, certainly. In rural areas... no. Just no.

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First off, they won't. Your obsession with the green tax shift is amusing but totally out-of-line. They may lose votes for other, fuzzy reasons (Dion), but not the green tax shift.

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You're totally missing the reality of these areas. The Liberal vote is quite static, but there are an enormous number of NDP-Conservative swing voters who'd never consider voting Liberal. In some ways its a cultural thing; the leftist rural voter survived in Canada in a way that they didn't in the US (at least outside of Minnesota). But, if the NDP gains votes in the Prairies, it will be mostly from the Conservatives directly, not from the Liberals.

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Of course. I just found the numbers amusing. I, too, doubt the NDP will win overall in the Prairies, although it can't be completely ruled out.

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What other than Premier Danny Williams is working against the Tories in Newfoundland? The Tories won their 3 NL ridings by over 10 points in 2006, and came within 5 points of beating the Liberals  in Random-Burin-St. George's.[/quote]

You've answered your own question. Harper is poison in Newfoundland precisely because of Danny Williams and the reasons the two have split. The Conservatives may not even be able to find candidates for some Newfoundland seats. That's how bad it is for them.

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And, as my signature suggests, I support the Greens.

[Verily]

Ontario 20:
Conservative  41% (37%)
Liberal            29% (39%)
Green             17% (5%)
NDP                13% (19%)

Am I the only one here who has a hard time seeing the Conservatives up that much in Ontario?

No, it's definitely wrong. Especially because a handful of the ridings included are NDP-Liberal swing ridings or three-way marginals; the Conservatives would have to be close to 50% in the ridings where they're actually competitive for those numbers to be true.

The Quebec numbers are also weird. There are, again, a number of ridings included where the Conservatives might come in fourth or fifth (Jeanne-Le Ber, Hull-Aylmer, Laval-Les Iles, Gatineau) and certainly will be completely irrelevant to the result, yet the Bloc is, as far as I can tell, at least competitive (as in, will come in second or first or a close third) in all of the ridings included. They will be way ahead in those 15 combined.

[Verily]

Will the NDP hold Outremont?

Probably.

Dead cert, beyond a total collapse. More interesting is whether they might one or two more scalps on the island of Montréal...

Given how revved up the campaign is in Westmount, it would not be a huge surprise. Also look for Hull-Aylmer and Gatineau for strong NDP showings.

Of course, Layton may not put as much effort in Quebec as the NDP should. There have been rumblings that Mulcair may try to topple Layton if the NDP's result is disappointing, and more NDP Quebec MPs mean more Mulcair allies in the NDP caucus. (Of course, more NDP Quebec MPs also mean more NDP MPs, but Layton may prefer to try to save seats in places like London-Fanshawe or Parkdale-High Park where the winner would be his ally.)

[Verily]

Another new poll, this one from "Segma" (never heard of them):

Con: 43
Lib: 25
NDP: 15
BQ: 8
Green: 7

Must be a Quebec polling firm because the poll release is all in French. They do agree with EKOS that the NDP's best region is the Maritimes, although they have the NDP third there.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/assets/pdf/CP204198.PDF


Obama leads by a wide margin in all states provinces

[Verily]

Which two ridings do they have a deal [qm]

Central Nova and Saint-Laurent-Cartierville. In the former, no Liberal candidate is opposing May. In Dion's riding, there's no Greenie.

I also read somewhere that the Tories aren't running a candidate against Independent Andre Arthur in Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier.  They don't want to risk splitting the federalist vote, or so the story goes.

The Greens are also, as mentioned earlier, not running a candidate against Bill Casey (basically so May can hammer MacKay on the Atlantic Accord).

[Verily]

Which two ridings do they have a deal [qm]

Central Nova and Saint-Laurent-Cartierville. In the former, no Liberal candidate is opposing May. In Dion's riding, there's no Greenie.

I also read somewhere that the Tories aren't running a candidate against Independent Andre Arthur in Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier.  They don't want to risk splitting the federalist vote, or so the story goes.

The Greens are also, as mentioned earlier, not running a candidate against Bill Casey (basically so May can hammer MacKay on the Atlantic Accord).

I have a hunch that May will disappoint. She strikes me as a bad match for Maritime Liberals. While the current climate is toxic for any Tory there, as an outsider she is singularly poorly placed to exploit it. I would not be shocked if the NDP was actually much more of a threat to MacKay than she was.

Had they run Alexis MacDonald again, yes, but Alexis MacDonald was needed to take over in Halifax. (If the NDP hadn't scrounged up a strong candidate, they might well have lost Halifax to the Liberals.) I do think May will come up short, but she'll get a strong second place. And she wouldn't surprise me if she won, either, if only because of the discontent in the Maritimes.

[Verily]

I'm not predicting a May victory right now. But she'll get very close, and like Verily, I wouldn't fall off my chair if she won.

It will also be interesting to compare the result in BGOS with the 2007 result there.

They're not really comparable; BGOS was a very safe PC seat, so the Greens needed to take a lot of votes directly from the PCs. Not so in Central Nova; May needs some switchers from MacKay, but mostly she needs to squeeze down the NDP and win over the Liberals.

Speaking of which, is Jolley running in the federal election? He did last time, and BGOS was the Greens' strongest result in 2006.

[Verily]

I'm not predicting a May victory right now. But she'll get very close, and like Verily, I wouldn't fall off my chair if she won.

It will also be interesting to compare the result in BGOS with the 2007 result there.

They're not really comparable; BGOS was a very safe PC seat, so the Greens needed to take a lot of votes directly from the PCs. Not so in Central Nova; May needs some switchers from MacKay, but mostly she needs to squeeze down the NDP and win over the Liberals.

Oh, I certainly wasn't pointing out BGOS as a Green pickup opportunity like Central Nova. I was just saying that it will be interesting to see how high the Greenie vote is there compared to '07.

I thought you were more looking at the swings, actually, not the pick-up chances. But I agree that Central Nova is much more likely than BGOS was--if only because the Greens now have a fairly substantial body of evidence to present to voters that they are a credible party, and a lot of that evidence was the 2007 Ontario election.

[Verily]

Seems like all major parties have nominated a candidate in my riding.

Mauril Bélanger, Liberal. Incumbent since 1995 by-election.
Patrick Glémaud, Conservative. Haitian born. Looking at his internetz page, he sounds like a typical Republican (family fluff, tough on crime, low taxes). And God, he's ugly.
Trevor Haché, NDP. I could've sworn it would've been Ric Dagenais. Who cares. But unlike Dagenais, he seems to be able to write French.
Akbar Manoussi, Greenie. Iranian descent and Muslim. Seems decent. Was GPO candidate in Orleans in 07.
Mike St-Onge, CAP. Joke who is running for a fascist 9/11 conspiracy theorist party. Ran in St-Hyacinthe-Bagot by-election in 07 for the CAP.

It seems like the Stalinists haven't nominated a candidate yet. They've run in every election since '93.

I thought the CAP were the Social Credit true believers. When did they become 9/11 conspiracy theorists?

[Verily]

Just for Canada I became a Green!

I think they can win at least one seat. The environment seems like such a big issue and the liberals seem quite unpopular.

Well, if you're going to be excited... seats to watch include:

Central Nova (Elizabeth May, the party leader)
Guelph (which was about to be a by-election where the Greens were strong challengers)
Vancouver Centre (the former leader of the BC Greens is running there)
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (best Green result in 2006 and 33% in the 2007 Ontario election)
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky-Country (Green defector is the incumbent)
Saanich-Gulf Islands (best Green result ever federally in a GE in 2004)

Also fun to watch might be Wild Rose, an ultra-safe Conservative seat where the Greens took second in 2006. (They won't win it, needless to say.)

[Verily]

Angus Reid has some crap out.

Con: 38
Lib: 24
NDP: 21
BQ: 9
Green: 7

[Verily]

Harper and Layton have caved to public pressure and said that they will not, after all, boycott any debate where May is allowed to debate. (Duceppe had said that he opposed her being admitted but would not boycott such a debate.) So May will be in the leaders' debate after all. She will be one of the more interesting stories there mostly because very few Canadians have an opinion of her while opinions on the other four are all quite solidly established.

Interestingly, a recent poll (forget by whom) had Duceppe as by far the most popular of the party leaders at around 60% favorable. Layton was next at around 55% favorable, then Harper around 45% favorable, and Dion at about 30% favorable. May also had about 30% favorable, but a full 50% had no opinion of her.