Canada 2008: Official Thread

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Hopefully it's going to be soon. Harper is a jackass.

The last polls or so have been quite close between Dion and Harper.

Feb 4 Poll from "Nanos Research"
Lib 33
Con 31
NDP 19
BQ 10
Green 8

Jan 27 Poll from Harris Decima
Lib 32
Con 29
NDP 16
Green 12
BQ 9

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I was having fun on PollingReport with the Harris Decima poll:

Quebec
BQ 37
Lib 21
Con 14
Green 13
NDP 12

Ontario
Lib 44
Con 30
NDP 15
Green 10

Prairies
Lib 39
Con 37
NDP 13
Green 12

BC
Con 34
Lib 25
NDP 20
Green 18 (Go Green!)

Alberta
Con 55
Lib 16
NDP 16
Green 11

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Don't Greens tend to overpoll? I cannot see Quebec voting strongly Green and NDP, although the lower BQ numbers do help. Has Quebec suddenly become more federalist? I'm also shocked that the Greens are a point away from the Conservatives; even for Quebec that's sad. I thought Harper was trying to gain back the vote in Quebec... I guess he failed.

I'd like to see a Green actually win a seat. Maybe Elizabeth May can win one, or in Bruce or BC.

I'd like to see Peter MacKay defeated. I hate that scum.

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She wont win, but a former Liberal backbencher in Quebec will be running for the NDP in Gatineau.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/ottawa/story/2008/02/25/ot-boivin-080225.html

It's rare to see a Liberal switch to the orange side, so I am happy to see this.  It looks like Mulcair may have started something.

Didn't the NDP do "well" there in 2006? Like 15% or something?

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We're not having elections again this year because of Stephen Dion (misspelled on purpose). He didn't like the budget but these incompetent failures are going to vote for it (or abstain, as the Liberals love to do). Remind me why the Liberals form the official opposition and why the Liberals aren't in a coalition with Harper? They seem to like him an awful lot. Dion and the Liberals are a joke, a failure, and incompetent pussies.

Can the NDP and Bloc be given the official opposition already? They seem more up to the job than the Conservaberal Party.

I told my mother not to bother calling Mauril Belanger to offer our support in an "election" firstly because I don't support incompetent idiots and second of all, Obese Belanger is safe.

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Dion is a joke leader.

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Anyway, what are our resident Canadians' thoughts on the whole Cadman-life insurance scandal?

Typical stuff Harper would do.

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More and more signs pointing to a fall election apparently.

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Harper set to trigger election call next week: PMO officials

Stephen Harper is poised to trigger an election call for Oct. 14, senior officials in the Prime Minister's Office said Friday.

The officials said no firm decision has been made, but that it is probable Harper will seek to dissolve his minority government next week, sending the country to the ballot box the day after Thanksgiving.

A meeting Friday between Harper and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe gave the prime minister little hope that a fall session of Parliament can be productive, the officials said.

Earlier Friday, Duceppe also suggested that a federal election is imminent, saying he and Harper had laid out their positions, but did not talk about compromises.

"We explained our positions and [Harper] will consider them. I told him what our position was on all of the issues. Now, I think that beyond that, he is determined to have an election," Duceppe said following the meeting at the prime minister's residence in Ottawa.

Duceppe is the first opposition leader to respond to Harper's call for one-on-one meetings. Harper has sought meetings with all three opposition leaders to see if they can agree on an agenda for the fall session of Parliament, scheduled to begin Sept. 15.

NDP Leader Jack Layton will meet with Harper at 24 Sussex Drive on Saturday.

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's office has told Harper he would be available to meet with the prime minister on Sept. 9, a day after three byelections are to be held in Quebec and Ontario.

Harper, however, has said he is unwilling to wait until Sept. 9 to discuss whether Parliament can continue as is.

PMO officials said Friday it is unlikely Harper will wait for a meeting with Dion to call the election.

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Doesn't seem like there is much interest.

Anyways, crunching 3 recent polls.

Ipsos-Reid says
Con 33
Lib 31
NDP 16
Greenies 10
and

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and

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Nanos (SES) says
Lib 35
Con 33
NDP 17
Bloc 8
Greenies 7

in Quebec, Bloc @ 31, Tories at 25, Libs at 24, NDP at 13, and Greenies at 7. In Ontario, Libs ahead 42-29, NDP at 21, and Greenies at 8. Libs massively ahead (over 50%) in "Atlantic", but tiny sample there apparently, so take with a bag of salt.


Harris-Decima says
Lib 34
Con 33
NDP 15
Bloc 7
Greenies 9
and

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and

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and

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Other interesting nuggets there: 55 says the country is heading the right direction, but 47 say the country would be best served by changing government (lol)

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That West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country Liberal MP that got thrown out of the party for being a dodgy bastard (can't recall the details) forgeting to say to Liberal Party the financial and legal problems with his restaurants, he refused to pay some employees, he didn't pay the GST, his contractors and a supplier, is apparently about to join the Greenies.

Corrected. Sorry, Hashemite. Your party is doing an error and his destroying his reputation only to be in leaders debates.

I know and I'm obviously not thrilled with him joining the Greenies. In fact, I strongly disagree with the Green Party leadership.

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Shouldn't the Conservatives do better in Quebec this time around?

Better than 2006? They did quite good in 2006 already. They got second place.

I heard from my aunt that many Bloc electors, who see independence as a lost cause, are thinking of switching to the Liberals to block Harper. Because Bloc voters hate Harper.

Shouldn't the Conservatives do better in Quebec this time around?

Like has been predicted by some?

The polls don't agree. They are undecided between the same than 2006 or worse than 2006 for them. Kevin, don't support them. I think than Harper is more to the right than McCain.

But, now, polling Quebec is very difficult. Quebec's electors change their idea of vote every week. 

Agreed. Quebec has very wild swings from election to election.

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What a choice! Stephen Harper or Stéphane Dion, I'm not sure who's worse

Harper. Dion's only problem is his total lack of charisma and his strong accent in English. Harper, on the other hand, is not charismatic either, but he has hard-right and environment-hating policies.

Judging from the latest polling the Conservatives seem to have an edge over the Liberals.

Not really. Neither the Tories nor the Libs have an edge.

I'm by no means an expert on Canadian politics, however I would have thought that with the Liberals gains in recent by-elections that they'd at least be tied or have an edge over the Tories.

1. Which gains? In the last two series of by-elections, the Liberals had a net loss of 2 seats. One, Outremont, which was considered to be a Liberal stronghold (however, Quebec has wild swings).
2. If you look at the three polls I posted today in this very thread, the Liberals are tied with the Tories or slightly "ahead".

My question is why haven't Dion's Liberals capitalised on these gains?

Because they don't exist

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We've been waiting for this for over 2 years now. Who gets the most credit for making Harper's Gov't last this long? I assume the Liberals, because they knew Dion wasn't ready yet.

Liberals of course. Dion has been totally incompetent as leader of the opposition.

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Papineau

Oh noes.

[Budd Dwyer moment].

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So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

If the person who passed it doesn't feel like following it, not much.

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So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

If the person who passed it doesn't feel like following it, not much.

It didn't pass - the Liberals blocked it.

False.

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That poll was posted on page 3 *yawn*

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From where the certainty that the September by-elections are automatically a humiliation for the Liberals?

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From where the certainty that the September by-elections are automatically a humiliation for the Liberals?

Every recent by-election has been a humiliation for the Liberals.  What makes you think this by-election will go any differently?

The last series of by-elections certainly wasn't excellent for the Liberals, but it wasn't a total humiliation. Sure they lost the northern Saskatchewan seat, but I don't recall that loss sparking a large outcry. The Liberal vote went down in half of the seats, and in the other half, their vote increased.

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Nanos is the new name for SES IIRC.

Angus-Reid is an awful pollster. IIRC, they were the only ones to show the Tories on 40-42%.

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One of the other seats is considered a Con opportunity IIRC.

Guelph. I have a very hard time seeing the Conservatives gaining a seat in Ontario in the current climate.

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good NDP result.

I don't have the feeling they'll have a good/excellent result this time 'round. We'll see.

I hope they do well, though. They're the only nationwide party that offers credible year-round opposition to George W. Harper.

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good NDP result.

I don't have the feeling they'll have a good/excellent result this time 'round. We'll see.

I hope they do well, though. They're the only nationwide party that offers credible year-round opposition to George W. Harper.

Except for the fact that they have kept him in office for two years.

How can the NDP bring down a government alone?

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Steve to ask the GG on Sunday for a dissolution and October 14th election.