Canada 2008: Official Thread

[minionofmidas]

It still boggles my mind why the Liberals chose that doofus. From the beginning I didn't see him as a serious candidate at all.

He was neither Ignatieff nor Rae.

...who were joke candidates as well.

[minionofmidas]

So should I get a Canadian avatar yet?

[minionofmidas]

But, now, polling Quebec is very difficult. Quebec's electors change their idea of vote twice every week. 

Fixed your post.

[minionofmidas]

It says a lot about Harper that Dion may well form a government.

And it says a lot about Dion that Harper may well form another government.

Go NDP!

[minionofmidas]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

If the person who passed it doesn't feel like following it, not much.

It didn't pass - the Liberals blocked it.

False.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So Parliament can still be dissolved early under this bill, it's just that there's an automatic date fixing mechanism in case it lasts its term? Or did they also shorten the maximum term from 5 to 4 years?

[minionofmidas]

The last series of by-elections certainly wasn't excellent for the Liberals, but it wasn't a total humiliation. Sure they lost the northern Saskatchewan seat, but I don't recall that loss sparking a large outcry. The Liberal vote went down in half of the seats, and in the other half, their vote increased.

Let's see - their celebrity candidates won.  But they lost the northern Saskatchewan seat and almost lost Vancouver Quadra, a west-coast Liberal bastion that they held since 1984.

And in the by-election before that, the Liberals lost Outremont - a seat they've held in every Parliament but one since 1935 -  to the NDP, which hadn't won a Quebec riding for 17 years.

...and it might very well do so again in September. One of the other seats is considered a Con opportunity IIRC.

[minionofmidas]

NDP 20

80% of Canadians are retards.

Corrected

[minionofmidas]

Will the NDP hold Outremont?

Probably.

Dead cert, beyond a total collapse. More interesting is whether they might one or two more scalps on the island of Montréal...

[minionofmidas]

Results of said poll in map form:



LOL.

They should team up with ARG and Zogby for Zogby-ARG-EKOS super-polls!

That'd be great.
Clearly, the Liberals need a Trudeau.

Even a Chrétien would work wonders.

[minionofmidas]

Patrick Glémaud, Conservative. Haitian born. Looking at his internetz page, he sounds like a typical Republican (family fluff, tough on crime, low taxes). And God, he's ugly.

OMG Racist!1!1!

[minionofmidas]

Just for Canada I became a Green!

While I'll be ceasing to be a Green just for Canada soon - right after the Austrian election, my old NDP-AB avatar will be making a comeback.

[minionofmidas]

The Canadian Electorate being what it is, all polls should be taken with a few crates of salt until we hit the last few weeks (ie; not because polls now must be inaccurate, it's just that them Canadians do have a habit of changing their minds en masse in the last few days...)

I agree. Canadians should be taken with salt.

[minionofmidas]

Nobody cares about Duceppe enough to dislike him, I see. Same with Layton.

Wasn't there some talk a few years ago of the Bloc running candidates in some of the Francophone ridings in the Maritimes and Saskatchewan? I seem to recall reading it somewhere.

I doubt there are enough Francophone separatists in any of those areas for there to even be a candidate. Not all Francophones are separatists.

It would be odd, unless they became the Bloc Francophone.

Just run a subsidiary called the Bloc Acadien in NB, and a Bloc Métis in Manitoba. The Francophones in Ontario are, of course, Québecois by descent.

[minionofmidas]

Just run a subsidiary called the Bloc Acadien in NB

Godin is basically Bloc Acadien anyway

I thought about adding something to that effect.

[minionofmidas]

He'll be included in the four.

[minionofmidas]

He'll be included in the four.

He is referred to as "Maurice Duplessis Jr."

Oh.

[minionofmidas]

Laurier University prediction map:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/?page_id=46

Their Maritime predictions are a bit silly.

This site is a joke. According to them, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel will vote liberal. That is in dark red on the map. That is ridiculous, this is a BQ riding 1993. Liberals were third in 2006 with 13,4% and 20684 votes away from the winner.

Oh, indeed. I didn't notice that. Lol.

As my grand-aunt would say, faut pas regarder de trop pres.

An update on Bill Casey's riding.

Since I was bored, I looked up the candidates.

Apart from him, the Conservatives are running Joel Bernard. He is from New Brunswick and lives in Orleans (next door to Ottawa). I doubt he's even been to Cumberland-Colchester. Lol.

The Liberals are running Tracy Parsons, the former leader of the Progressive Canadian thingee that has since been almost entirely absorbed into the Liberal Party.

Safe Indie.

Joel Bernard is fantastic! I'm a massive fan!

What has he done except being a carpetbagger?

I think Smid was being sarcastic.

I also think he did what I just did, and looked Bernard up on Wikipedia.

[minionofmidas]

Now I'm intrigued.

A different Joel Bernard? A quick scan of his campaign website? Personal interaction a while back where he came across as a very nice guy? What?

[minionofmidas]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

I've found that a lot of Western left wing parties aren't very nice to Israel. Its not a huge issue for me, but it is important. It might be the one thing I prefer Harper on, but he's terrible for most everything else.

(Under-25 vote is 37C-22N-19L-18G-12B.)

What the hell? Young people aren't supposed to favor (small "c") conservative parties by that big of a margin. This is an outrage.

They don't. Check the NDP and Green vote.

Moreover, check the total - 108.
Guess one figure is off by ten... pretty easy to spot which is the most likely...

[minionofmidas]

Nanos Tracking Poll (Quebec subsample)
Conservatives - 29% (-3)
Bloc Québécois - 26% (-8)
Liberals - 24% (+4)
New Democrats - 16% (+6)
Greens - 6% (+1)

On these figures Duceppe might fall to an NDP challenge.

[minionofmidas]

Liberals now tied with Forces of Darkness in ON

Conservatives and Greens at 0?

Since as the Liberals are a subset of the Forces of Darkness, for them to be tied with the Forces of Darkness ...

[minionofmidas]

im interested in what you experts think about the west nova riding.

very close last time.  i understand the race is a rematch of the 06 race.  will thilbault hold on?

Should be close. Thibault may be kept alive by an increase in dipper tactical voting - they can't win here but have a sizable presence.

[minionofmidas]

There is no distinction between them and the Grits. None.

Yes there is; they take their support from a different part of the electorate.

Policy-wise, I mean. The Greens are the party of the urban elite who don't like voting Liberal, I know.

Not the "urban elite" (who remain monolithically Liberal). The young.

The children of the urban elite are part of the urban elite.

[minionofmidas]

Is it just me, or has that site (the predictions, not the comments. Emphatically not) developped a clear anti-NDP bias of late?

[minionofmidas]

Any additional thoughts on the wild free-for-all in Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques?

So, what's the situation? Thibault is running, all the other parties have candidates too? Paper candidates I presume? Should be a purely Thibault vs Bloc battle, Bloc favored.