Canada 2008: Official Thread

[MaxQue]

This scandal begins in 2005.

In the month of May, the Liberal party has a minority government.
They make a budget.
Liberals + NPD: 151
BQ + Conservative: 152
Cadman, a independent (ex-conservative) MP, who had a cancer in the last  phase, supports Liberals and the government stays in office.
But the Conservative Party had try to buy the vote of Cadman.
In exchange of his vote, they were giving him a live insurance of one million dollar.
He declined the bribe.
That is the version of the book of his widow.

Chuck Cadman died one month and half after this vote.

[MaxQue]

That West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country Liberal MP that got thrown out of the party for being a dodgy bastard (can't recall the details) forgeting to say to Liberal Party the financial and legal problems with his restaurants, he refused to pay some employees, he didn't pay the GST, his contractors and a supplier, is apparently about to join the Greenies.

Corrected. Sorry, Hashemite. Your party is doing an error and his destroying his reputation only to be in leaders debates.

[MaxQue]

Poll Average
Lib 33% (+3%) Con 33% (-3%) NDP 16% (-1%) Greens 9% (+5%) Bloc 8% (-2%)

Swing: 3% from Con to Lib

Forecast House of Commons
Liberals 136 (+33) Conservatives 105 (-19) Bloc 44 (-7) NDP 22 (-7) Ind 1 (n/c) Liberals short by 19 of an overall majority

Forecast Liberal Gains
From Bloc:Ahuntsic, Brome--Missisquoi, Brossard--La Prairie, Chicoutimi--Le Fjord,
Gatineau, Jeanne-Le Ber, Papineau
From Con:Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale, Barrie, Burlington,
Edmonton Centre, Essex, Fleetwood--Port Kells, Glengarry--Prescott--Russell, Halton, Kitchener--Conestoga, Niagara Falls, Northumberland--Quinte West, Ottawa--Orléans, Parry, Sound--Muskoka, Peterborough, Simcoe North, St. Catharines, Tobique--Mactaquac, Whitby--Oshawa, Winnipeg South
From NDP:Burnaby--Douglas, Hamilton East--Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain,
London--Fanshawe, Parkdale--High Park, Sault Ste. Marie, Trinity--Spadina

Good, but with a few errors. There is no way than Liberals can win in Chicoutimi--Le Fjord. They won there only because of Andre Harvey and now he quitted federal politics. Chicoutimi--Le Fjord will be a battle between BQ and Conservative. Liberal will be lucky to have 15%.

[MaxQue]

Shouldn't the Conservatives do better in Quebec this time around?

Like has been predicted by some?

The polls don't agree. They are undecided between the same than 2006 or worse than 2006 for them. Kevin, don't support them. I think than Harper is more to the right than McCain.

But, now, polling Quebec is very difficult. Quebec's electors change their idea of vote every week. 

[MaxQue]

They don't have their star candidate, André Harvey.

[MaxQue]

The Liberals are not very creative. Their slogan is ''Ensemble, tout est possible'' (Together, all is possible). When I heard that, I think of Sarkosy in France last year. His slogan was ''Ensemble, tout devient possible'' (Together, all becomes possible).

In my riding, Abitibi--Baie James--Nunavik--Eeyou, in northern Quebec, only two candidates are known.

Yvon Lévesque, BQ, is the incumbent since 2004.
Jean-Maurice Matte, Conservative. He is the mayor of the fourth largest city of the riding. He is elected by the retired.
NDP. No candidate for now. Not surprising.

Liberals. No candidate for now. Surprising since they held the seat 1997-2004. On September 7th, the Liberals' website said than Ronald Tétrault was the candidate but they suppress his name after that day. He was a member of the provincial legislature 1970-1973, mayor of the main city of the riding 1976-1980 and 1992-2000. He finished third to the mayoral election. In 2005, he finished third in an election to be a municipal councillor. He is going in the wrong direction. He began to the top and finish to the bottom. 

[MaxQue]

On the subject, the Libs are having trouble finding candidates in Quebec apparently. Only 45/75 when I last checked.

On their website, they have 72/75 candidates in Quebec. Only Abitibi--Baie James--Nunavik--Eeyou, Manicouagan and Repentigny are missing.

[MaxQue]

Laurier University prediction map:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/?page_id=46

Their Maritime predictions are a bit silly.

This site is a joke. According to them, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel will vote liberal. That is in dark red on the map. That is ridiculous, this is a BQ riding 1993. Liberals were third in 2006 with 13,4% and 20684 votes away from the winner.

[MaxQue]

Harper was in Newfoundland today. Needless to say, Williams wasn't waiting for him at his arrival.

I am surprised than he didn't organise a protestation to expell Harper from Newfoundland with slogan like ''You are not welcome here, return in Alberta''.

[MaxQue]

When is this election supposed to take place?  November? 

October 14th.

[MaxQue]

According to the Liberals' website, the Liberal candidate in my riding is named Mark Canada. That is a very funny name. And this is not a joke.

[MaxQue]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

In Quebec, his prevision is quite good outside of Montreal and Eastern Quebec. He has the same numbers than me for my riding, Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou. He underestimates Liberals outside Montreal and overestimates Liberals in Montreal.

[MaxQue]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

I totally agree with you on Alberta. I won't say anything on Ontario I don't know very well Ontario political life.

[MaxQue]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

I totally agree with you on Alberta. I won't say anything on Ontario I don't know very well Ontario political life.

What about Quebec?

Tomorrow or Tuesday, when I will have more time to analyse all the ridings.

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada:
CPC 38
LPC 27
NDP 21
BQ 8
GPC 6

Nanos Quebec:
BQ 34
CPC 27
NDP 19
LPC 16
GPC 6

NDP is better than Liberals in Quebec for now. That is surprising.

Edit: sorry for the typo.

[MaxQue]

Safe Bloc
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou
Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel
Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour
Chambly—Borduas
Châteauguay—Saint-Constant
Hochelaga
Joliette
La Pointe-de-l'Île
Laurentides—Labelle
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
Laval
Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher
Manicouagan
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Montcalm
Repentigny
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
Rivière-du-Nord
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert
Saint-Lambert
Sherbrooke
Terrebonne—Blainville
Verchères—Les Patriotes

Lean Bloc
Alfred-Pellan
Beauharnois—Salaberry
Compton—Stanstead
Drummond
Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
Jeanne-Le Ber
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
Québec
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
Saint-Jean
Shefford
Vaudreuil—Soulanges

Safe Conservative
Beauce
Beauport—Limoilou
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Jonquière—Alma
Lévis—Bellechasse
Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Louis-Saint-Laurent
Mégantic—L'Érable

Lean Conservative
Louis-Hébert
Pontiac
Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean
Trois-Rivières

Safe Liberal
Bourassa
Honoré-Mercier
Lac-Saint-Louis
LaSalle—Émard
Mount Royal
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine
Pierrefonds—Dollard
Saint-Laurent—Cartierville
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel

Lean Liberal
Laval—Les Îles


Lean NDP
Outremont

Safe Independent
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

Too close to call
Ahuntsic
Brome—Missisquoi
Brossard—La Prairie
Papineau
Richmond—Arthabaska
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
Berthier—Maskinongé
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Saint-Maurice—Champlain
Hull—Aylmer
Westmount—Ville-Marie
Gatineau

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada:
CPC 37 (-1)
LPC 26 (-1)
NDP 21 (0)
BQ 9 (+1)
GPC 7 (+1)

Nanos Quebec:
BQ 40 (+6)
CPC 23 (-4)
NDP 18 (-1)
LPC 14 (-2)
GPC 5 (-1)

The Liberal slide is not stopping.

[MaxQue]

Big news, Julian West has withdrawn as the NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands, after the deadline. That really blasts that race wide open for the Greens (Andrew Lewis running again) and the Liberals (running former BC Green Briony Penn) against incumbent Conservative Gary Lunn.

Also, for the first time maybe ever, certainly in a long time, no party is running a full slate of candidates.

That's rather unfortunate, he's been the candidate for quite some time.

He will be on the ballot. Elections Canada has decided than is was too late to remove his name from the ballot. So, the final tally of candidates is:

NDP: 308
CPC: 307 (Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier)
LPC: 307 (Central Nova)
GPC: 304 (Saint-Laurent--Cartierville, Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley, Sherbrooke, Humber--St.Barbe--Baie Verte)
BQ: 75

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 40 (+3)
LPC: 25 (-1)
NDP: 19 (-2)
BQ: 9 (0)
GPC 8 (+1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 37 (-3)
CPC: 22 (-1)
LPC: 18 (+4)
NDP: 17 (-1)
GPC: 6 (+1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 36 (-1)
LPC: 25 (+1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (+1)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (+3)
CPC: 20 (-2)
LPC: 18 (0)
NDP: 15 (0)
GPC: 7 (-1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 36 (-1)
LPC: 23 (-1)
NDP: 17 (+1)
GPC: 12 (0)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 39 (+2)
CPC: 23 (0)
LPC: 17 (+1)
NDP: 12 (-2)
GPC: 8 (-1)

[MaxQue]

Big news, Julian West has withdrawn as the NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands, after the deadline. That really blasts that race wide open for the Greens (Andrew Lewis running again) and the Liberals (running former BC Green Briony Penn) against incumbent Conservative Gary Lunn.

Also, for the first time maybe ever, certainly in a long time, no party is running a full slate of candidates.

That's rather unfortunate, he's been the candidate for quite some time.

He will be on the ballot. Elections Canada has decided than is was too late to remove his name from the ballot. So, the final tally of candidates is:

NDP: 308
CPC: 307 (Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier)
LPC: 307 (Central Nova)
GPC: 304 (Saint-Laurent--Cartierville, Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley, Sherbrooke, Humber--St.Barbe--Baie Verte)
BQ: 75

Correction: GPC: 303 (Saint-Laurent--Cartierville, Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley, Sherbrooke, Humber--St.Barbe--Baie Verte, Jonquiere--Alma)

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 39 (-1)
LPC: 24 (-1)
NDP: 19 (0)
BQ: 9 (0)
GPC: 8 (0)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 38 (+1)
CPC: 23 (+1)
LPC: 18 (0)
NDP: 15 (-2)
GPC: 6 (0)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 35 (-1)
LPC: 25 (0)
NDP: 20 (+1)
GPC: 10 (-1)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (0)
CPC: 21 (+1)
LPC: 17 (-1)
NDP: 15 (0)
GPC: 7 (0)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 37 (+1)
LPC: 24 (+1)
NDP: 18 (+1)
GPC: 10 (-2)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 38 (-1)
CPC: 26 (+3)
LPC: 18 (+1)
NDP: 11 (-1)
GPC: 6 (-2)

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 39 (0)
LPC: 25 (+1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 9 (+1)
BQ: 8 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 37 (-1)
CPC: 25 (+2)
LPC: 19 (+1)
NDP: 11 (-4)
GPC: 7 (+1)

No EKOS on the weekends

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 38 (+1)
LPC: 23 (-1)
NDP: 19 (+1)
GPC: 9 (-1)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 37 (-1)
CPC: 27 (+1)
LPC: 19 (+1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
GPC: 4 (-2)

And because that is interesting: Nanos Western Canada

CPC: 49
NDP: 24
LPC: 17
GPC: 11

[MaxQue]

My god.

This is depressing.

how so?

Harper's pretty much got this in the bag.

But that's not depressing...

That is depressing when you are Canadian and you know than this will bring more years of censorship, secrets, lies and pollution.

But, unlike Dion said in a ad, a vote for Harper is not a vote for the third term of Bush.

[MaxQue]

My current Ontario prediction:

Why can't that part near Manitoba (forget the riding name) vote NDP!

Kenora

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 36 (-3)
LPC: 27 (+2)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 9 (0)
BQ: 9 (+1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 38 (+1)
CPC: 24 (-1)
LPC: 21 (+2)
NDP: 10 (-1)
GPC: 7 (0)

No EKOS on the weekends

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 36 (-2)
LPC: 25 (+2)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 9 (0)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 37 (0)
CPC: 26 (-1)
LPC: 20 (+1)
NDP: 12 (0)
GPC: 4 (0)

Liberal surge!