Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She wont win, but a former Liberal backbencher in Quebec will be running for the NDP in Gatineau.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/ottawa/story/2008/02/25/ot-boivin-080225.html

It's rare to see a Liberal switch to the orange side, so I am happy to see this.  It looks like Mulcair may have started something.

Didn't the NDP do "well" there in 2006? Like 15% or something?

10%. Got 15% in nextdoor Hull-Aylmer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You know, I still have difficulty seeing Ignatieff as being a politician, rather than someone from late-night arts coverage on BBC 2.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Details?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That West Vancouver Liberal MP that got thrown out of the party for being a dodgy bastard (can't recall the details) is apparently about to join the Greenies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I come back and an election in Canadia do be declared. Glory be!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NDP led in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada

As much as I'd love that to be true, it's a reflection on the twin and related dangers of breakdowns and small sub-sample sizes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually the Party went through a barren patch in Saskatchewan in the mid '60's as well (even Tommy Douglas was heavily beaten in Regina City in '63). The province was run by an unpopular NDP government back then; as it was in 2004 and 2006. It will be interesting to see whether a certain historical pattern holds.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2006 map: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/map/2006/

Nice.

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Last time round there was a decent amount (though not especially easy to use) on the statcan website.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Britain, at least, "battleground" polls are notoriously inaccurate. Worse even then constituency polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will the NDP hold Outremont?

Probably.

Dead cert, beyond a total collapse. More interesting is whether they might one or two more scalps on the island of Montréal...

Agree, though I suspect that his majority will fall to one extent or other. Though odd things happen in Quebec.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually, no. Bad data is worse, far worse, than no data.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which two ridings do they have a deal [qm]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was about to say that Arthur is basically a Tory anyway, until I remembered that he isn't. He's a fascist. But he's mining the same rich seam of Duplessisism that the Quebec Tories (and ADQ in another setting) are, so...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Canadian Electorate being what it is, all polls should be taken with a few crates of salt until we hit the last few weeks (ie; not because polls now must be inaccurate, it's just that them Canadians do have a habit of changing their minds en masse in the last few days...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just run a subsidiary called the Bloc Acadien in NB

Godin is basically Bloc Acadien anyway

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Doing a few demographic maps (of the 2006 census! yay!) to get a proper feel for things. Here's the key for the (or a) very basic set;



I: Median HH Income
LI: % classified as "low income"
M: Management occupations (not to be confused with the "managerial occupation" catagory in the U.S, Britain, etc, though they are related. It's a smaller and richer group of people)
T: Trades & etc occupations; chosen because it's a "traditional" blue collar group not directly dependent on manufacturing and etc.
NW: Non-White (officially "visible minorities")
D: % with degrees
Mf: % employed in manufacturing
Un: unemployment

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll admit to being surprised at the low income % in Willowdale. And quite how low the median hh income is in Toronto Centre.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tuesday - September 15, 2008

Nanos Tracking Poll
Conservatives - 38% (+1)
Liberals - 31% (nc)
New Democrats - 17% (-1)
Greens - 8% (-1)
Bloc Québécois - 6% (nc)

Nanos Tracking Poll (Quebec subsample)
Bloc Québécois - 26% (nc)
Conservatives - 25% (-1)
Liberals - 24% (+1)
New Democrats - 17% (nc)
Greens - 8% (nc)

Not much to report today. The Quebec subsample has been showing a steady Conservative decline for quite some time, enough to say that it's probably a trend. Otherwise the subsamples and the overall poll have been pretty steady.

O.K, I don't put much stock into subsamples these days, but the NDP polling the same in Quebec as Canada as a whole is worth remarking on. Fwiw, 17% is the % they polled in Outremont in the 2006 election; highest in the province IIRC.

Oh... and the Tories tied with the Bloc also... yes...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not as if the popular Conservative Premier of Ontario (yes, that's a non-existent oxymoron)

Ah, how things have changed from the era of the Big Blue Machine...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is no distinction between them and the Grits. None.

Yes there is; they take their support from a different part of the electorate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually what I was getting at (in part) was their rural vote; in places there's a very interesting overlap with areas of early Reform support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

They could just get totally annihilated everywhere except Montreal (as in, all fourth and fifth place finishes) instead of losing random ultrasafe seats on the island. But Hull and Westmount would be absolutely lost to the NDP if the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.

I'm already quite sure the Liberals will be totally in existent in the rural Francophone areas of Quebec.

Weren't they basically in 2006 already [qm]

Btw, those maps thee made are nice. Now post them here 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I heard from some that Dion actually defied expectations and got points across. I personally wouldn't put him in last.

Mind you, expections for Dion were probably so low that..

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, the "he can speak English!" bump