General Election: State Pickups Clinton vs. Obama

[ottermax]

In the general election against McCain, would Clinton or Obama be able to pick up more states. I can see Clinton winning Arkansas, Nevada, and Ohio, but which states would she lose? Wisconsin? Obama would definitely win Iowa, but I see his chances of picking up other states rather limited. This is my biggest fear in the GE; that Obama will win the nomination, but not be able to win enough states, only increase his vote share in Dem states.

What do you think?

[exopolitician]

Clinton Pickups:

Arkansas
Ohio
New Mexico [barely]
Nevada [barely]

Clinton Loses:

New Hampshire
Missouri
Wisconsin [possibly]
Florida

Obama pickups:

Iowa
Missouri
Virginia [barely]
Colorado

Obama Loses:

Arkansas
Nevada
New Mexico
Florida
Ohio [maybe, could be close]

[8 out of 11 is not deserved]

Obama will take some "soft" states that Republicans have carried and some close states; Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, West Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Mexico

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama would do far better in Nevada than Clinton. That applies to every interior west state too, except New Mexico.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In the general election against McCain, would Clinton or Obama be able to pick up more states. I can see Clinton winning Arkansas, Nevada, and Ohio, but which states would she lose? Wisconsin? Obama would definitely win Iowa, but I see his chances of picking up other states rather limited. This is my biggest fear in the GE; that Obama will win the nomination, but not be able to win enough states, only increase his vote share in Dem states.

What do you think?

Which has been my key electability concern with Obama - getting 60% in CA and IL doesn't really mean very much.

Clinton: Arkansas, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, West Virginia, Missouri
Possible weak spots: WI, PA, OR, NH

Obama: Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri
Possible weakspots: PA, NH

With Clinton I think there's more to gain in EV, but more to lose also.

[Joe Biden 2020]

You can put Oklahoma in the possible Clinton pickups.  I know I sound like a broken record, but it is entirely possible, and Hillary Clinton is starting to realize that Oklahoma is not going to be a 65-35 state on November 4, 2008.  She is even starting to call the Sooner State and their 7 electoral votes as "competitive".  She is saying this in response to, and dismissal of, her poor February showing around the country.

Now, if Obama were to earn the nomination, then I will be the first one to put Oklahoma back into the safe Republican category, around the mid-to-high 50s for McCain.

With our distrust of McCain as high as it is, a lot of our staunch conservative voters could stay home on November 4 and thus give the Democrats, and Democrat-voting Independents and those Democrat-voting Republicans a chance to make a difference in a traditionally dark-red state.

If Huckabee had won the nomination, then we would be a safe Republican state in that scenario.

[exopolitician]

You can put Oklahoma in the possible Clinton pickups.  I know I sound like a broken record, but it is entirely possible, and Hillary Clinton is starting to realize that Oklahoma is not going to be a 65-35 state on November 4, 2008.  She is even starting to call the Sooner State and their 7 electoral votes as "competitive".  She is saying this in response to, and dismissal of, her poor February showing around the country.

Now, if Obama were to earn the nomination, then I will be the first one to put Oklahoma back into the safe Republican category, around the mid-to-high 50s for McCain.

With our distrust of McCain as high as it is, a lot of our staunch conservative voters could stay home on November 4 and thus give the Democrats, and Democrat-voting Independents and those Democrat-voting Republicans a chance to make a difference in a traditionally dark-red state.

If Huckabee had won the nomination, then we would be a safe Republican state in that scenario.

I dont understand how being a strong republican state in elections for years, Clinton will somehow make the state competetive.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Clinton:
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Arkansas
Missouri
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Tennessee
North Carolina

Obama:
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Missouri
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Tennessee

I don't see them losing any states unless it is an absolute landslide.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Clinton would pick up Arkansas and West Virginia, and have a good shot at Ohio.  She'd probably lose New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Obama would pick up, possibly, Missouri.  He'd have a decent shot at Ohio, but not as good as Hillary.He'd probably hold Wisconsin, but would lose Arkansas and West Virginia.

Either could potentially pick up New Mexico with a Richardson VP pick.  Otherwise, McCain should hold it against either.  I don't see either Democrat picking up Nevada, either.

[Joe Biden 2020]

You can put Oklahoma in the possible Clinton pickups.  I know I sound like a broken record, but it is entirely possible, and Hillary Clinton is starting to realize that Oklahoma is not going to be a 65-35 state on November 4, 2008.  She is even starting to call the Sooner State and their 7 electoral votes as "competitive".  She is saying this in response to, and dismissal of, her poor February showing around the country.

Now, if Obama were to earn the nomination, then I will be the first one to put Oklahoma back into the safe Republican category, around the mid-to-high 50s for McCain.

With our distrust of McCain as high as it is, a lot of our staunch conservative voters could stay home on November 4 and thus give the Democrats, and Democrat-voting Independents and those Democrat-voting Republicans a chance to make a difference in a traditionally dark-red state.

If Huckabee had won the nomination, then we would be a safe Republican state in that scenario.

I dont understand how being a strong republican state in elections for years, Clinton will somehow make the state competetive.

This year is not like other years.  The Oklahoma Democratic Party is rapidly strengthening after a good year in 2006.  Plus, I just told you how we would be competitive, and yet you ignored that.

[Kevin]

Nether Clinton nor Obama can win Virginia against McCain so stop fantasizing about such a possibility! 

[Lief 🗽]

Lawl at everyone thinking that the election will be another 50-50 split.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Clinton:
Colorado
Tennessee
North Carolina

lolololololololol

[Gustaf]

I think there will be relatively few state pick-ups. And I actually think Clinton would pick up more than Obama. The reason is that, simplifying, Obama plays to McCain's strengths while Clinton plays to his weaknesses. Obama's appeal is mostly toward suburban independents. These are exactly the kind of people McCain appeals to. The kind of states where Obama would expect to do well (Nevada, Oregon, Colorado, etc) are the places where McCain wóuld do well. So I expect them to tend to cancel out. In the conservative rural places where Obama would do badly McCain is gonna have troubles with the base. That would also tend to cancel out. So, overall, I'd expect few switch-overs in an Obama v McCain race.

In McCain versus Clinton, Clinton appeals to rural whites, the kind of voters who like Huckabee and may distrust McCain. The Obama voters on the other hand may stay home or even vote for McCain to an extent in western states. So I'd expect more switch-overs in a Clinton v McCain race.

[elcorazon]

Obama will pick up the following states in an election vs. McCain and he will hold all Kerry states:

Iowa
Missouri
Ohio
Arkansas
Virginia
Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado

states he might also take:

Tennessee
North Carolina
Indiana
Florida
West Virginia
South Dakota
Montana
Georgia
Kentucky

States Clinton will take vs. McCain:

Iowa

States that she could take:

Arkansas
Missouri
Ohio

[Brittain33]

Pennsylvania is not going to vote for a Republican this year, not after turfing Santorum out by a 20-point margin and defeating 3 incumbent congressmen for largely partisan reasons alone. (I still think Carney's dead.) This is going to be the fifth consecutive head fake to that state by the Republicans and it's just not going to happen.

[elcorazon]

I think there will be relatively few state pick-ups. And I actually think Clinton would pick up more than Obama. The reason is that, simplifying, Obama plays to McCain's strengths while Clinton plays to his weaknesses. Obama's appeal is mostly toward suburban independents. These are exactly the kind of people McCain appeals to. The kind of states where Obama would expect to do well (Nevada, Oregon, Colorado, etc) are the places where McCain wóuld do well. So I expect them to tend to cancel out. In the conservative rural places where Obama would do badly McCain is gonna have troubles with the base. That would also tend to cancel out. So, overall, I'd expect few switch-overs in an Obama v McCain race.

In McCain versus Clinton, Clinton appeals to rural whites, the kind of voters who like Huckabee and may distrust McCain. The Obama voters on the other hand may stay home or even vote for McCain to an extent in western states. So I'd expect more switch-overs in a Clinton v McCain race.

no way.  Obama's appeal is much broader than that.  Hillary is hated by most rural whites.  I don't buy this AT ALL.  Conservative Rural places have been overwhelmingly voting for Obama in the primaries.  Yes, it's a dem primary, but I see no evidence that Hillary will do better there than Obama.  Conservatives will be less likely to vote for a woman than a black man, for the record.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think Obama puts the following 2004 Bush states seriously into play (based on chance to flip): Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, Colorado, Virginia, Florida

And with really high black turnout, we could see some real surprises like a Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, or North Carolina

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

states he might also take:

Tennessee

Take a look at the primary map. Not gonna happen.

Indiana

No chance, the end.

South Dakota

Come on man, let's be at least semi-realistic.

Montana

Similar

Georgia

As Al has said, it'll be at least 20 years before this is even remotely winnable for Democrats again.

Kentucky

No. Clinton might have a chance here, but no chance for Obama.

[Gustaf]

I think there will be relatively few state pick-ups. And I actually think Clinton would pick up more than Obama. The reason is that, simplifying, Obama plays to McCain's strengths while Clinton plays to his weaknesses. Obama's appeal is mostly toward suburban independents. These are exactly the kind of people McCain appeals to. The kind of states where Obama would expect to do well (Nevada, Oregon, Colorado, etc) are the places where McCain wóuld do well. So I expect them to tend to cancel out. In the conservative rural places where Obama would do badly McCain is gonna have troubles with the base. That would also tend to cancel out. So, overall, I'd expect few switch-overs in an Obama v McCain race.

In McCain versus Clinton, Clinton appeals to rural whites, the kind of voters who like Huckabee and may distrust McCain. The Obama voters on the other hand may stay home or even vote for McCain to an extent in western states. So I'd expect more switch-overs in a Clinton v McCain race.

no way.  Obama's appeal is much broader than that.  Hillary is hated by most rural whites.  I don't buy this AT ALL.  Conservative Rural places have been overwhelmingly voting for Obama in the primaries.  Yes, it's a dem primary, but I see no evidence that Hillary will do better there than Obama.  Conservatives will be less likely to vote for a woman than a black man, for the record.

I don't see you countering any of my arguments here but...ok. Winning conservative rural places in a Democratic primary doesn't say all that much. The Democratic primary voters of Utah aren't that conservative. Now, if you want evidence you can look at some of the many state polls we've seen out of places like Oklahoma, Tennessee and Kentucky. They all show Obama doing horribly, and much worse than Clinton. And Obama's "broad appeal" does not seem to extent to the white Democratic primary voters of the South, to name just one group. It also doesn't seem to extent to Hispanic or Asian voters. Or blue-collar voters.

He's a pretty good candidate and he's done remarkably well in the primaries so far. But he's tied with Clinton. So he still hasn't gotten more than 50% of the Democratic primary vote. So let's not get too carried away.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My concern is that Obama's got a really good primary coalition - young voters, AA and high income/high education voters - but except I don't discount his deficit overall in blue-collar voters, women, hispanics (who may not be so reliable in the SW... especially with McCain) - generall when Obama has done better with those groups, it has been due to a higher proportion than normal of his own base.

I hope, if he's the nominee that he actually realises he can't rely on students and latte liberals to win.

[Ogre Mage]

These remarks are based on the 2004 Presidential results.

If Hillary is the nominee, take it to the bank that Arkansas will be in the Democratic column.  That is the one southern state she will win for sure.  Other possible pickup chances are Nevada (due to Latinos and her strength on the Yucca Mountain issue), New Mexico, West Virginia and Ohio.  While McCain is favored in Florida, Clinton would be competitive.  The Democratic base in the state seems tailor made for her -- lots of seniors and Latinos, a fair Jewish population and many transplanted New Yorkers.  Plus Floridians will appreciate her fighting for their votes to count.

If Hillary is facing McCain New Hampshire would be very contested.  The Clintons have deep roots in the state but so does McCain.  I am not sure she could hold onto it.  Pennsylvania would be a challenge to hold onto against McCain but I think she could do it.  Wisconsin was awfully close last time and I doubt Hillary is the best candidate for that state.

With Obama I think the best chances for pickups are Iowa, Missouri and Colorado.  These are the type of midwestern swing states where his message plays best.  Virginia may be a possibility as it is shifting into a purple state and he has strong support from the Virginia state party.  The mix of large numbers of African-Americans and upscale whites makes it a great fit for him.

My big worry with Obama is I have far more misgivings about his ability to hold Pennsylvania than Hillary.  The voters in that state are decidedly outside of his demographic sweet spot and I fear the masses of older, white downscale voters there will prefer McCain.  I have concerns about him keeping New Hampshire also.  However, I feel pretty confident he could hold Wisconsin whereas I am not sure Hillary could.